Injury News
Justin Steele-Cubs-SP
Justin Steele left his start on Friday with a left knee contusion. He was on the ground in obvious pain and was helped off the field. This initially looked bad but he was later diagnosed with a left knee contusion and tweeted that he was okay. This was scary for both the Cubs and fantasy owners because Steele was just announced as the Opening Day starter. Steele is coming off his best season in the majors (3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 20% K:BB over 173.1 IP). He showed good skills (25% K, 5% BB, and 49% GB) and advanced ERA metrics (3.61 SIERA) believe in him. Fantasy owners with drafts left should feel confident in drafting Steele despite this injury scare.
Michael Massey-Royals-2B
Michael Massey is expected to start the year on the IL due to lower-back problems. Massey is looking to build off his first full season at the major leagues in which he hit .229 with 15 HR, 42 R, 55 RBI, and 6 SB in 129 GP. He showed decent power numbers which was a result of hitting the ball just hard enough (8% Barrels) and in the air (45% FB). His BABIP is naturally going to be lower given his fly ball tendencies but it was still low (.261 BABIP), so regression is expected. Massey projects more in the .240-.250 range given his strikeout rate (22% K) and league-average barrel rate. He was a candidate to fill out the back end of rosters in deeper mixed leagues given his power/speed potential (15 HR/10 SB) throughout a full season. Hitting the IL to start the year hurts because he is going to need at-bats to accumulate production without elite skills.
Rangers Injured Sluggers
Corey Seager (groin) and Josh Jung (calf) were in the Rangers lineup for their spring training finale. This is great news for the Rangers and fantasy owners. There is a very good chance that both of them are in the Rangers Opening Day lineup which will be a huge positive given both were expected to start the year on the IL. Seager is coming off a year in which he only played 119 games but provided elite production (.327 AVG with 33 HR, 88 R, 96 RBI, and 2 SB). He combines excellent plate skills (9% BB and 16% K) with hitting the ball hard (15% Barrels and 53% Hardhit). The only downside to his fantasy game is that he doesn't steal bases but his elite batting average makes up for that. Josh Jung on the other hand is more of a 3.5 category player. His batting average isn't going to be great (.250-.260) given his strikeout rate (29% K). He also doesn't provide stolen bases (3 SB in 148 GP). Jung hits for power (23 HR in 122 GP) but it isn't elite power which is why he is closer to being a league-average fantasy option than turning into an elite run producer but he is young enough to take steps forward. Both players are trending in the right direction, especially in terms of health.
Five Hitters Post 150 ADP
Riley Greene-Tigers-OF
Riley Greene is coming into a critical year for his development. He was playing regularly for the Tigers before his injury last year. He ended the year hitting .288 with 11 HR, 51 R, 37 RBI, and 7 SB in 99 GP. Greene also showed improvement in his ability to hit the ball hard (11% Barrels and 47% Hardhit). He still hits too many ground balls (49% GB) but all the required skills are there for him to break out and fulfill his prospect hype. Greene has the bat-to-ball skills to make the necessary adjustments to get more loft in his swing. Even if he doesn't hit more fly balls he will still be valuable from a fantasy perspective because of his five-category production. The Tigers lineup should also show improvement as their youth movement matures.
Cedric Mullins-Orioles-OF
Cedric Mullins has fallen in drafts this year after having a perceived down year. He hit .233 with 15 HR, 51 R, 74 RBI, and 19 SB in 116 GP. His average took a hit because of a small increase in strikeouts (19% to 22%) and a lower BABIP (.271). While he is unlikely to return to his breakout 2021 season (.291 AVG, 30 HR, 91 R, 59 RBI, and 30 SB) another season similar to 2022 (.258 AVG, 16 HR, 89 R, 64 RBI, and 34 SB) is not out of the question. This would be tremendous value for where he is going (173 ADP). The prevailing belief is that he is going to be platooned (.228 AVG and 83 wRC+ vs. LHP) but this has not been confirmed. If he gets regular playing time, he has the potential to provide significant surplus value given his ADP.
Rhys Hoskins-Brewers-1B
Rhys Hoskins signing with the Brewers was a good move for both parties. Hoskins will benefit from getting regular playing time coming off injury and a hitter-friendly home park. He also represents a good value in fantasy drafts. Hoskins offers a profile different that is becoming more difficult to find which is above-average power. The change in rules has made it easier to find stolen bases. Hoskins hit .246 with 30 HR, 80 R, 79 RBI, and 2 SB in 2022. He hits the ball hard (11% Barrels and 44% Hardhit) and in the air (48% FB) which is what he needs to hit for power. This should not change in Milwaukee. He is a flawed player because of his lower batting average and lack of speed. However, past pick 150 each player's value is more dependent on what you need for your individual team. If power is a need and Hoskins is on the board, he should provide good value at his current pick (#195 in NFBC).
Anthony Rizzo-Yankees-1B
Anthony Rizzo is healthy and ready to be a regular in the Yankees lineup after dealing with a concussion and concussion-like symptoms last year. He ended the year hitting .244 with 12 HR, 45 R, 41 RBI, and 0 SB. The splits of his season pre and post-concussion are well documented. What Rizzo offers this year is a well-rounded power profile at a discounted price. Rizzo makes enough contact (16% K) and hits the ball in the air (40% FB) that he will benefit handsomely from playing half his games in Yankee Stadium. He should also hit in the middle of the Yankees lineup that should feature two OBP monsters in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Rizzo has had injury concerns outside of the concussion due to recurring back injuries so there is risk but he has proven to be a steady contributor across the board.
Jack Suwinski-Pirates-OF
Jack Suwinski had a roller coaster 2023 season. The final line was a .224 AVG with 26 HR, 63 R, 74 RBI, and 13 SB. There is quite a bit to be excited about like his quality of contact (16% Barrels and 43% Hardhit) and ability to steal bases in addition to his power potential. The bad is his strikeout rate (32% K) and struggles against LHP (.200 AVG, 42% K, and 68 wRC+). The good news is that the Pirates are in a position where they need to continue to play him regularly to figure out what they have. This is a positive from a fantasy perspective because he won't be in a strict platoon to start the year. He offers power and speed which is hard to find this late in drafts (post pick #240). Normally, it is one or the other but it does come with significant batting average risk.
Five Pitchers Post 150 ADP
Bryan Woo-Mariners-SP
Bryan Woo made 18 starts for the Mariners last year and posted a 4.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 17% K:BB. He displayed good skills (25% K and 8% B). Woo has a great fastball in terms of shape, velocity, and effectiveness. He needs to continue to develop his secondary offerings (SL and CT) to take the next step forward. The good news is that he has good command so the potential is there and the Mariners have done a good job recently of developing their starters. Woo offers both floor and ceiling because he has demonstrated success with just a fastball and the development of the secondaries offers room for growth. He is an arm worth betting on in the middle rounds of drafts.
Aaron Civale-Rays-SP
Aaron Civale was traded to the Rays mid-season a year ago. His overall results when on the mound (23 GS) were above average. He had a 3.46 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 4.15 SIERA. He showed the ability to miss just enough bats (23% K) to combine with above-average control (7% BB). With the Rays he was able to improve both his strikeout (29% K) and walk (6% BB) rates. This is not surprising considering the Rays success with pitchers that they have brought in. They have been able to improve a pitcher's approach and pitch mix to get hitters out. Civale changed his pitch slightly by throwing more fastballs and sliders while lowering the usage of his cutter and curve. He has an extensive injury history so there is considerable risk but he is someone that has better skills than where he is being drafted.
Triston McKenzie-Guardians-SP
Triston McKenzie missed most of 2023 with injuries. He was only able to make four starts and wasn't himself (5.06 ERA and 1.56 WHIP). This spring he has been by all reports healthy and looking good. In his last full season, he posted a 2.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 26% K, 6% BB, and 3.57 SIERA. This is a reminder of the upside in a healthy McKenzie. He is a pitcher that has a true three-pitch mix (FB, SL, and CB) that he can throw against both sides of the plate. For his career, he has a .280 wOBA against LHB and a .279 wOBA against RHB. The AL Central is not the strongest division in terms of offense and has traditionally been an excellent spot for pitchers and this year should be no different. The risk is fairly high given his injury history but the upside outweighs the risk, especially in shallower leagues (12 teams and below) where the replacement level is much higher.
Nestor Cortes-Yankees-SP
Nestor Cortes is now a very important part of the Yankees rotation with the recent injury to Gerrit Cole and the up-and-down nature of Carlos Rodon's velocity. Cortes himself is coming off a down year (4.97 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 4.35 SIERA). He dealt with a shoulder injury last year that impacted his success when he was on the mound. Cortes has been healthy this spring and got the Yankees Opening Day start. While he does not have the most overpowering stuff, Cortes does have the ability to miss bats (25% K and 10% SwStr) while having above-average command (7% BB). He is a fly-ball pitcher (49% FB) but has shown that he can still pitch in Yankee Stadium (career 3.43 ERA). Cortes is primed for a bounce-back after posting a 2.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the two prior seasons before the injury.
Tyler Wells-Orioles-SP
Tyler Wells looked to be the odd man out in the Orioles rotation but injuries have decimated the Orioles rotation even with the addition of Corbin Burnes. Wells pitched well last year before being shut down at the end of the season. He had a 3.64 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He showed important growth in key skill areas. He increased his strikeout rate from 18% to 25%. He did so without sacrificing control (7% BB). Wells is a fly ball pitcher (55% FB) but a lot of that can be mitigated by his home park which has transformed into one of the best pitcher's parks in the league. Projection systems don't believe in his breakout but they are likely not considering his pitch mix change. He increased his slider usage (+10%) which became an important pitch for him. Wells also has a five-pitch mix which allows him to keep hitters off balance and have success against left-handed hitters. Wells is going late enough in drafts that he is worth taking a flier on.
Around the League
Blake Snell-Giants-SP
Blake Snell recently signed a 2-year, $62M deal with the San Francisco Giants. This was a great deal for the Giants who have struggled to bring in top free agents in the past couple of offseasons. It is also a great landing spot for Snell given his familiarity with the NL West and he will also benefit from pitching in Oracle Park. Snell is behind other starting pitchers given his late signing which is going to delay his start of the season. He pitched in a minor league spring training game on Saturday. Prior to the start, he indicated that he has worked up to 60 pitches so he is still ramping up to full workload. This puts the Giants in a tough situation because they either start the season without Snell and wait until he is ready or they limit his pitches/innings the first couple of times through and have him get prepared that way. Either way is a small hit to his fantasy value because it is going to be fewer innings and chances at wins. Snell is coming off a career year (2.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP) in which regression is expected (4.06 SIERA). He was fortunate on balls in play (.256), home run rate (0.75 HR/9), and LOB% (87). Snell was also able to overcome a below-average walk rate (13%). He isn't going to regress to being a terrible pitcher but expecting a repeat of 2023 is going to cost you on draft day.
Ceddanne Rafaela-Red Sox-OF
Ceddanne Rafaela has made the Red Sox Opening Day roster. This is significant news because he was a long shot to start the spring but has performed well. He hit .275 with 3 HR, 7 R, 8 RBI, and 2 SB. He is a premium defender which is going to hopefully keep his bat in the lineup full time. Rafaela hit .312 with 14 HR, 40 R, 42 RBI, and 6 SB in 48 GP at Triple-A last year. He did so with 22% K, 6% BB, and 45% Hardhit. He did struggle to make contact in his brief cup of tea (28 GP, .241 AVG, 2 HR, and 3 SB). Rafaela offers an intriguing blend of power and speed because between all three levels (AA, AAA, and MLB) he had 22 HR and 41 SB. He is worth taking a chance on for his speed alone.
