Edward Cabrera-Marlins-SP
Edward Cabrera went 5.1 IP and gave up 5 ER on 7 H, 3 BB, and 6 Ks against the Guardians. Cabrera has finally broken out. He has a 3.34 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 21 GS. The biggest change that Cabrera has made has been slashing his walk rate from 12% to 8% without cutting into his strikeout rate (26% K). The improvement in walk rate does not look like a fluke because it coincides with a major pitch mix change. Cabrera has switched his fastball usage from a four-seam to a sinker. He is also throwing his slider and curve more often. His heatmap shows a more refined approach closer to the edges instead of middle-middle or outside the zone. He has already set a career-high for innings at the major league level (113.1 IP), which has also helped in his development. He is lined to start at home against the Cardinals next week, which is a good matchup for him.
Matthew Boyd-Cubs-SP
Matthew Boyd went 7 IP and gave up 2 ER on 2 H, 1 BB, and 5 K's against the Blue Jays. Boyd has been awesome this year. He has a 2.46 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through 142.2 IP. Boyd has been successful using a combination of just enough swing and miss (23% K) and excellent control (5% BB). His 3.79 SIERA suggests that regression is likely to set in, but that doesn't mean he's not still a valuable fantasy asset, and it doesn't account for all the stats he has accumulated so far. His fastball and changeup have been the driving factor that makes it sustainable because he can get hitters out from both sides of the plate with those two pitches.
Tanner Bibee-Guardians-SP
Tanner Bibee went 5.2 IP and gave up 2 ER on 5 H, 4 BB, and 5 Ks against the Marlins. Bibee has a 4.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP through 136.2 IP in 24 GS. It has been a major step back for the promising right-hander. His strikeout rate has dropped from 26% to 22% this year. His walk rate is also up from 6% to 7%. His swinging strike rate has dropped from 12% to 10%. Bibee also has a 4.06 SIERA, which suggests he has pitched better than his stats say, but still a step down from last year's 3.58 SIERA. His velocity is in line with last year, but he has made a major shift in his pitch mix that hasn't led to success. Bibee has dropped his four-seam usage from 43% to 27% in favor of more cutters (20%) and sinkers (17%). He has also dropped his slider usage from 28% to 18% after it was his dominant pitch in 2024. It is all very confusing as to why he has made these changes without a drop in velocity. Bibee makes for an interesting streaming option next week with a start on the road against the Diamondbacks.
Kodai Senga-Mets-SP
Kodai Senga went 5.2 IP and gave up 2 ER on 5 H, 1 BB, and 7 K's against the Braves. Through 19 GS, Senga has a 2.35 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. His ERA does not match his WHIP, and this is reflected in his SIERA (4.56). His strikeouts have dropped from 29% to 23%. This is a big problem because at 29% K, he could overcome the control issues (12% BB). Senga has also experienced a drop in velocity (95.8 mph to 94.6 mph). It was always going to be a volatile profile given that his best pitch is a forkball that in of itself is volatile. Recalibrating our expectations for Senga is necessary. His floor is lower than expected, but the ceiling is still there. He has produced surface stats this year, but the underlying numbers are concerning heading forward. He does have a good matchup next week against the Nationals, so there is no reason to bench him, but just some nuggets to think about for 2026.
Julio Rodriguez-Mariners-OF
Julio Rodriguez was 1-3 with an HR (24), 1 R, and 2 RBI against the Orioles. Rodriguez came into the game hot in the month of August (.311 AVG with 4 HR, 9 R, 9 RBI, and 3 SB). On the year, he is hitting .259 with 24 HR, 80 R, 67 RBI, and 23 SB. He is tracking closer to his monster 2023 season in which he hit .275 with 32 HR, 102 R, 103 RBI, and 37 SB. The plate skills are still strong (6% BB and 22% K), and he has hit the ball hard (10% Barrels and 46% Hardhit). The big change for him has been dropping his Oppo% (21%). It hasn't led to a big increase in Pull% (+2%), but it is moving in the right direction. Rodriguez has been significantly better in the second half of each year he has been in the league. He has a career .297/.349/.903 triple slash in the second half compared to a .260/.319/.737 in the first half.
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