February 24th, 2006

 

Deserved Wins

For many of us, a pitchers Win Total is a very critical component of our fantasy success. One of the first steps in forecasting a pitcher's Win Totals is to determine how many Wins the pitcher deserved the previous season.

We define Deserved Wins as Quality Starts multiplied by .74.  Typically a pitcher wins 74% of his Quality Starts (defined as a start where the pitcher has gone at least 6 innings and has given up 3 runs or fewer). Using this indicator we can determine if the pitcher was unfortunate or fortunate in his pitching Win totals. A big determinant of Win totals is frequently centered on the quality of the pitchers team offensive, but this is not always the case as you'll see in the listings below. Depending on the quality of the offensive unit, this could account for a 2-3 wins above or below expectations.  

Below are the pitchers who were shorted last year (won less than deserved), many of these pitchers had complimentary stats such as ERA and WHIP totals that support this notion.

Less Wins than Deserved
Washburn,J. 7
Clemens,R. 6
Redman,M. 6
Johnson,Ja. 6
Davis,D. 6
Millwood,K. 6
Loaiza,E. 6
Lawrence,B. 6
Patterson,J. 5
Lowe,D. 5
Santos,V. 5
Penny,B. 5
Robertson,N. 5
Hennessey,B. 5
Bedard,E. 4
Astacio,P. 4
Radke,B. 4
Byrd,P. 4
Blanton,J. 4
Burnett,A. 4

On the flip side, here's the list players who had More Wins than deserved:

More Wins than Deserved
Shields,S. -10
Sosa,J. -8
Capuano,C.       -6
Lee,C. -6
Schilling,C. -6
Colon,B. -5
Davies,K. -5
Young,C. -5
Park,C. -5
Hendrickson,M. -4
Perez,Ol. -4
Francis,J. -4
Willis,D. -4
Suppan,J. -3
Wakefield,T. -3
Lidle, C. -3
Meche,G. -3
Lilly,T. -3
Belisle,M. -3
Fassero,J. -3

Paying close attention to the win total aberrations is fundamental in formulating expectations for the coming season. Aside from the typical pitcher skills development, additional considerations include the improvement or degradation of team support.

To see Deserved Wins verses Actual Wins for every pitcher, visit our Player Charts (premium members please use the link within the member area as those pages will also contain the 2006 projections)

 

-Anthony

 

 

National League

LHP Chuck James (ATL) and RHP Kyle Davies could be first options if there's an injury or trade involving any of returning veteran starters John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Jorge Sosa, John Thomson and Horacio Ramirez. "He keeps getting hitters out everywhere he goes," GM John Schuerholz said of James. "If you look at his statistics throughout his minor league career, they've been continually sensational. He always gets hitters out. That's what we look for." James is in fact on the fast track. At 24 with less than 3 years of minor league experience, James will break the Atlanta starting rotation at some point in 2006. Take a look at his minor league numbers: Single A - 0.97 WHIP 1.24 K/Inning Ratio, Double A - 0.96 WHIP 1.21 K/Inning Ratio, Triple A - .097 WHIP 0.90 K/Inning ratio. Granted these are limited observation, however these are extraordinary numbers. If you play in a keeper league or an extremely deep league, James is a must have. Baseball America has yet to rank James, we rank James as the 20th best pitching prospect in Baseball (see our top 100 Prospect Rankings - register )

The Marlins are replacing Carlos Delgado with another left-handed hitting slugger, albeit one much less accomplished. Acquired from the Mets in the Delgado deal, Mike Jacobs should see most of the playing time at first. Last September, he hit 11 homers in 100 at-bats, 95 of which were against right-handers. How well he handles lefties will determine whether he splits time with right-handed hitting Wes Helms. The Marlins will give Josh Willingham a look behind the plate, but it's more likely he'll open the season in left. Willingham doesn't have a natural position, but the Marlins are eager to find out what he can do offensively. He is a career .272 hitter in the minors, and in 2004 hit 24 homers in 338 at-bats for Double-A Carolina. If Willingham doesn't hit out of the gate (this spring) he could find himself the odd man out. No matter what type of natural athlete he is, there is a learning curve in manning the left field position. On the flip side the Marlins are fielding a semi Triple A team this year. He could be extremely valuable if you can slot him as a catcher in your league (he did catch 8 of his 10 games played last year for the Marlins).

Mets ace RHP Pedro Martinez and his sore toe continue to dominate the news coming out of Port St. Lucie this month. After much deliberation, Martinez may not pitch in the World Baseball Classic after all.

After a lengthy morning meeting with Alfonso Soriano, his agent and several club officials, manager Frank Robinson (Wash) said he'll let the 30-year-old slugger work out at second base for the next week so he can prepare to play for his native Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. What happens when that event is over late next month and Soriano returns to Nationals camp? "Who knows?" Robinson said. "No decision is going to be made as to whether he is going to play second base or left field today, tomorrow, the next day or when he comes back. Those decisions will be made before we leave Florida." If your league allows you to slot players at eligible positions from 2005, I suggest that you slot Soriano as a second baseman (even though he may not play there.)  If you highlight any player within our projections software (see screenshots) you can see his Game Played by Position in 2005. In the case of Soriano, his VAM ranking will be much more attractive when compared to other second baseman.

The Cubs' bullpen is nearly set with one or two openings at most, leaving RHP Todd Wellemeyer with no margin for error. He'll either make the team in the bullpen, be placed on waivers or get traded. "My only thought is what I can control right now, which is my performance," Wellemeyer said. "I have no control over where I'm going to be other than if I'm lights out in spring training. I'd like to stay with the Cubs though."

With the trade of 1B Sean Casey and the switch of LF Adam Dunn to first base, the plan is to put Wily Mo Pena (CINC) in left field. No longer is he arguing with Austin Kearns over right field or waiting for days Ken Griffey Jr. doesn't play so he can man center field. Pena said he can't wait for fans to witness the new, improved Wily Mo Pena, the one that developed this winter in the Dominican Republic Winter League. “I hit 11 home runs in about 100 at-bats in the D.R.," he said, "And four in the playoffs." Notice there is no mention of his probable sub .260 average. If you're looking for cheap homeruns at the expense of batting average, look no further than Willy Mo. Playing full time, a 30 HR season is well within his potential.

For the second consecutive year, 1B Lance Berkman (Hou) showed up at spring training and had to answer questions about his surgically repaired right knee. Berkman had surgery to reconstruct a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee on Nov. 12, 2004. He had more surgery last month to have scar tissue removed from the knee. "I haven't really run on it very much," Berkman said. "I have to get my legs back under me.” Removing scar tissue typically is a minor procedure that does not require much rehabilitation, we'll keep on eye on Berkman this spring.

The Brewers think the sky's the limit for 2B Rickie Weeks, the second player taken in the 2003 draft. Before being summoned from Class AAA Nashville, he was tearing through Pacific Coast League pitching, batting .320 with 12 home runs, 14 doubles, nine triples and 48 runs batted in, in only 55 games. Correctly projected as a fast riser through the system, Weeks signed a five-year deal after the '03 draft, the first major-league contract given an amateur in franchise history. He arrived ahead of schedule after 2B Junior Spivey was traded to Washington on June 11 of last season.

The highlight of the two-hour workout yesterday at Pirate City was an extended mound session by starter LHP Paul Maholm. Maholm missed a day early in camp because of a slightly strained hamstring, but this round -- which he estimated at 80 pitches -- quelled any lingering doubts.

1B Albert Pujols was fine Thursday, the day after the Cardinals slugger was hit by a pitch from John Webb during Wednesday's batting practice session.

In the short time he has been at spring camp, CF Eric Byrnes' infectious energy has been felt around the batting cage and in the clubhouse, and it has begun to rub off on some teammates. "He can definitely be contagious," said LHP Randy Choate, who played with Byrnes on a college summer team and in winter ball in the Dominican Republic.

Following his up-and-down, 14-12 rookie season, LHP Jeff Francis (Col) packed on 15 pounds. He now carries 220 pounds on his still-slender 6-foot-5 frame. He's also working to add variety to his pitching repertoire. Though his big three pitches - fastball, curve and changeup - remain his bread and butter, he's working on a sinker and a cut fastball to work inside on right-handed batters. Two words: Denver, Colorado    One warning: Stay Away.

RHP Eric Gagne has been working on a slider, a pitch he threw sporadically as a starter but had kept on the shelf since becoming a closer in 2002. In his first spring session facing hitters, he threw it several times. The slider might be a way to compensate if his fastball doesn't regain the 96-mph velocity he had before last season. He said the pitch can be effective against left-handers and right-handers. Right-hander Derek Lowe will be the opening-day starter, manager Grady Little said. Right-hander Brad Penny and left-hander Odalis Perez are scheduled to pitch the second and third games of the opening series against the Atlanta Braves. I don't like the if statement "if his fastball doesn't regain the 96-mph velocity he had before last season" As earlier in the week, Gagne will probably never be himself, what we need to find out is how much of the 96 MPH fastball he has left.

RHP Jason Schmidt (SF) and LHP Noah Lowry both looked sharp, drawing few good swings from a group that included Moises Alou, Barry Bonds, Steve Finley and Randy Winn. Lowry said his command is better now than at this point last spring. Based on an extensive injury history Jason Schmidt could come cheaply in most fantasy drafts this year. Schmidt had a relatively decent second half last year, and the expectation is that he'll build on that this season. 

According to the Rocky Mountain News, "Center fielder Cory Sullivan, left, and shortstop Clint Barmes, right, will share the top two spots in the lineup. Sullivan, a left-handed hitter, is expected to see most of the time in the No. 1 spot, with Barmes batting second. But they will flip-flop at times, particularly against a tough left-handed pitcher, to give Sullivan some protection."  Sullivan doesn't hit for power but he can run, we're boosting up his SB and Run totals based on this new batting order.

The Philadelphia Inquirer & Daily News reports that "Franklin expects to land in the Phillies' starting rotation. The Phillies plan for him to be there, too It is why general manager Pat Gillick, who had Franklin in Seattle, signed him to a 1-year contract worth a guaranteed $2.5 million. Franklin was once a up and coming prospect. In 2003 Franklin pitched 212 innings and finished the year with a 1.23 WHIP and 3.57 ERA. He's followed up with 1.42/4.90 and 1.44/5.10 seasons. He may gain a benefit facing hitters who have never seen him, but long term we are talking about a pitcher who averages about .50 K/Inning, which typically doesn't bode well for success.

American League

2003 World Series MVP, RHP Josh Beckett (Bos) is in camp throwing gas, which suggests that for now, his shoulder is healthy. Curt Schilling has taken an active role in mentoring the 25-year-old. Beckett is widely considered a top 10 pitcher in baseball, the only fault is his propensity to develop finger blisters. Beckett has only averaged 160 innings a year over the last 3 years. Although his supporting numbers may rise, Beckett is sure to benefit from the offensive support around him this year. A 17-18 win season is well within his range.

LHP Randy Johnson (NYY) felt he didn't get enough work during spring training last year, but has spoken with pitching Coach Ron Guidry and bullpen coach Joe Kerrigan about making sure he throws enough this spring to enter the season feeling comfortable with his mechanics. That's what he was most focused on yesterday, which is why he paid little mind to his occasional wildness. Assuming he's not too stiff, he'll probably throw another BP session tomorrow and is lined up to pitch one of the first few spring training games that begin March2.

B.J. Upton has a message for the Devil Rays. He said he believes he is over his defensive difficulties and ready to play in the majors. "My thing this offseason was defense, defense, defense," Upton said. "Before I even picked up a bat it was with a glove. That was my focus during the year. It's not going to stop here. I still have to get better." Still, with Julio Lugo a lock to start at shortstop and Luis Rivas and Nick Green fighting for the utility job that includes a backup spot at short, it is unlikely Upton can make the Rays out of camp. until they make room for Upton, he'll have to continue to refine his trade in the minors. Upton needs to tear it up offensively in AAA this year, which should force the Devil Rays hand by mid season.

There's a storm brewing for Toronto manager John Gibbons. If Troy Glaus remains healthy, Shea Hillenbrand will see little time at third, while across the diamond at first, Lyle Overbay is a lefty hitter who handles left-handers well. Gibbons is making a lot of quiet promises to a lot of players for a lot of at-bats in '06. Keeping his end of the bargain, with a team in good health, might end up a problem.

The Indians are exploring the possibility of locking up SS Jhonny Peralta with a long-term contract. Though the club signed the 23-year-old Peralta to a one-year deal last week, GM Mark Shapiro said the Tribe will have discussions with the player about more of a long-term deal throughout Spring Training.

Despite their disappointing season in 2005, the Tigers are as set with their roster as some perennial contenders. They have only one starting position open -- center field. Their five-man rotation has one vacancy. Manager Jim Leyland admits he doesn't have many decisions to make, but the ones he does have "are huge."

3B Mark Teahen (KC) wants to build on a strong closing kick to an up-and-down rookie season in which he finished at .246 with seven homers and 55 RBIs in 130 games. “It was a rough year,” he said, “but I learned a lot — how to deal with the struggles individually and as a team. I’ve learned a ton about the adjustments I have to make at the big-league level.” Unless Teahan can start slugging the ball, his job will always be in jeopardy, maybe not this year, but it's only a matter of time. Because many clubs are willing to sacrifice the middle of the diamond to predominately defensive players, the corner positions are often required to carry a heavy stick.

The responsibility rests mostly on CF Torii Hunter's shoulders to help the Twins rediscover the love-one-another clubhouse that was a critical ingredient to Minnesota making it to the playoffs in each of manager Ron Gardenhire's first three seasons. Hunter is the bridge between the promising young players and newly acquired veterans, and he knows it will take time for everyone to feel comfortable together as the Twins try to return to the playoffs after a disappointing 2005 season.

Just because Casey Kotchman's power numbers from 126 at-bats last season (seven home runs, 22 runs batted in) would project to 28 homers and 87 RBIs over a full season of 500 at-bats, it would be unfair to expect the first baseman to put that much of a surge into the Angel offense this year. Kotchman, a 2001 first-round pick and the son of longtime Angel scout and rookie league manager Tom Kotchman, hasn't hit more than 10 home runs in five professional seasons.

The Toronto Sun reports that "Alex Rios had 426 at-bats in 2004. That figure went up to 481 last season. Well before his arrival at spring training yesterday he was made aware that the Jays' plan is to take some of those at-bats away and give them to Eric Hinske who is moving to the outfield. The plan is to have Hinske platoon in right field with Rios, assuming of course Hinske proves he can play the outfield. Rios, meanwhile, said he has his own plan. "I'm not worried about it," Rios said yesterday. "If that's what they want to do, there's nothing I can do about it. I just have to do my best and I guess try to win everything back." Rios doesn't do anything offensively which is out of the ordinary, which opens the door for Hinske

As the Dallas Morning News reports, "Francisco Cordero, who felt some pain in his right shoulder a few days ago and had been throwing off flat ground, went back to the mound Wednesday for a light session. Cordero still hasn't decided whether to play for the Dominican Republic in the World Classic." The Good News is that he's throwing again.

According to the St. Petersburg Times, "Rocco Baldelli said his usual routine on the first day of batting practice is to get in the cage and not swing. It's called "tracking" in which players gauge pitch speed and how the ball releases from the pitcher's hand. But because Baldelli, rehabbing from knee and elbow surgeries, hadn't seen live major-league pitching since October 2004, the centerfielder swung away. He also made sure he was first at the plate." In his last half season of play, Baldelli had 10 HRs, 40 RBIs, and 11 SBs. Solid numbers for the then 22 year old phenom....Almost 2 years later Baldelli has a lot of catching up to do.

As the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports, "Roberto Petagine, newly signed to a minor league contract with an invitation to try to make the squad, showed considerable power during his first batting practice." Petagine was one of the best minor league hitters during his day, but unfortunately always failed when given a chance in the big leagues. He went to Japan for 6 years where he was the basically equivalent of Albert Pujols averaging .317, 37 HRs and 99 RBIs during his stay. At 34, Petagine still has to prove he has the stomach to play in MLB. If he does make the squad, it will be as a backup.

According to the Contra Costa Times, "Rich Harden had his best session off the mound during his rehabilitation from a torn left labrum. Harden threw 32 pitches, popping catcher Jason Kendall's mitt with authority. ... Pitching coach Curt Young said that, barring injury, Harden could pitch in an exhibition game three or four days after a March 5 simulated game."  If healthy, Harden is a top 10 pitcher.

As the Contra Costa Times reports, "Shortstop Bobby Crosby arrived in camp with a bum right shoulder, which he hurt while weight lifting over the winter. Crosby has been told to stop throwing. He was examined by the well-renowned Southern California surgeon, Dr. Lewis Yocum, about two months ago. Davis said Crosby has tendinitis of the rotator cuff, but he was allowed to take batting practice Thursday."

 

 

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. Anthony  worked as a Quantitative Analyst for several Wall Street firms developing statistical portfolio models before creating the Fantistics group. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, including being featured as a guest expert on Major League Baseball's official website. He can be seen hanging around the MLB spring training facilities (wishing they let him play) during the months of February and March. Having won a "trophy room full" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 14 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.


 
   
   
   
   
   
 

Our Player Projections are updated Daily!

www.insiderbaseball.com

Aside form the notes listed in this blog, we've started to post 75-80 other press news items in our member section. For the early risers, this section will begin updating at 4 am and be complete by 8 am with the daily news for the day.

Previous Blogs: 2/20, 2/21, 2/22, 2/23,

 
 

The 2006 Player Projections Custom Values for your league!

Designed for Fantasy Point / Rotisserie /or Head to Head Scoring Leagues

  • PC Projections Program that produces the optimal Players Rankings and values based on your league parameters

  • Over 1,200+ player projections

  • Projections can be changed and saved

  • Online Sortable Projection Databases

  • Save Multiple Team setups for different leagues

  • Advanced Scoring Options for Roto Scoring (weighing of categories)

  • Graphical Charts showing player history and a league averages

New for 2006:

Expected Auction Value (EAV$). EAV is an algorithm developed to mimic the non linear decline in auction prices during the span of a fantasy draft. Its primary function is to aid those who participate in an auction draft

Over 600 player profile pages stacked with Baseball Statistics, Rookie Profiles, Fantasy Information, and Production Charts

Click here for more info: www.insiderbaseball.com

When the MLB season gets underway we cover over 125 players (SAMPLE) every morning (more than any other source on the internet) and best of all you'll be able to keep track of your player news stories on one convenient page through our exclusive Player and Stats Tracker.

 
 

Not a Member, click here to see an overview of the 2006 Fantasy Package

 
       

WWW.INSIDERBASEBALL.COM