Good morning everyone!
A couple of years ago I
asked the publishers for the First Pitch feature to get a couple of chances a
week to just free form and rant a little bit. But we now live in the Age of the
Blog and yes, Insiderbaseball.com has jumped onboard
the virtual bandwagon with our own Blog. Now I can
riff whenever I get the urge ... So ... Wither our First Pitch?
Well Tuesdays are still free
form for me but I will be here throwing out the First Pitch on Thursdays each
week as well. In response to our annual end of the year subscriber survey last
year many of you felt we needed to devote more time to keeping up with the
closer situations in Major League Baseball. We here at Insiderbaseball.com are
nothing if not responsive to our valued customers, so that's what I'll be what
I'll be doing here each week, taking a Closer Look ... same Bat Time, same Bat
Channel!
(Blurred, spinning copy of
the Sporting News ... didly, didly,didly, didly, deeeeee.....)
There may be trouble brewing
in Anaheim.
Derek Zumsteg (www.zumsteg.net)
has done a Zappruder-esque breakdown of some footage
from Monday's game that seems to show K-Rod
working with a foreign substance planted under the bill of his cap. The Rangers
were on it too and have contacted the Commissioner's Office.
It all looks pretty
incriminating but it also looks like the idiosyncratic Rodriguez had simply
transferred some rosin to the bill of his cap. To me the placement of a
substance in that particular spot seems way too risky, but who knows? It all
seems a little too grassy knoll to me at this point but we'll keep an eye on
where this goes. K-Rod owners needn't worry too much yet.
Cincinnati will probably be a weekly stop on this particular
three-hour cruise. The release of Dustin
Hermanson this weekend created a committee of closure at the end of the
bullpen.
David Weathers should get the most looks. He was the main guy last year when Hermanson
wasn't and he closed out 12 games with 7 blown saves. He had 15 saves in 2005 with
4 blown saves. Weathers 6.11 and 7.07 K/9 is ok in this role and he's kept his
OBA below .250 for the last two seasons, including a healthy .226 in 2005.
Those are borderline qualifications on their own but the Reds like his
experience and veteran makeup. David is the top target for those of you in deep
need of saves.
Mike Stanton
was forced to finish 2006 as the Giants closer and collected 8 saves, doing a
very serviceable job. The 39-year-old wouldn't seem to be a comfortable option
but he was signed this winter to be in the closer mix. He collected 27 saves
for the Braves in 1993 but never saved more than 8 in any of his other 15
seasons and he only saved more than 6 games 3 times in that span. Stanton has a
7.28 career K/9 but he's spend much of the last couple of years closer to 6.0
save for the 6.94 he posted with SF last year. His OBA has hovered
in the high .260s the last couple
of seasons.
Todd Coffey,
the Federally-Mandated "Closer of the Future"rounds out the possibilities.
He's young (26), brings some heat, and he's still toying with installing a
splitter that he used with some success in the minors. Consider him a very dark
horse despite a good spring. Todd posted a 6.92 K/9 last year and in his last
couple of seasons in the minors he struck out 143 in 156 IP (8.25/9) andc even raised that rate a bit when he was using his
splitter. His ability to close may very well hinge on how well he integrates
his splitter here at the MLB level.
The name of rookie Jon Coutlangus has come up in situations
where LHP is needed which is curious with Mike Stanton around. Jerry Narron may want to stabilize one slot in the bullpen and
use Stanton as
the set up guy, the role which fits him best. Last year in AA Chattanooga Jon struck out 56
in 63 IP but allowed just 40 hits while walking 32 (1.14). He held left-handed
hitters to a .156 OBA with a 10.07 K/9 but his L/R split is still pretty
balanced. Versus RHH he struck out 7.01/9 with a .197 OBA (.185 overall)
Finally Eddie Guardado is lurking on the DL, recovering from elbow surgery.
He'll re-enter the picture sometime prior to Independence Day.
Another perennial closer
conundrum exists in Tampa
where Al Reyes chairs a committee
that includes Brian Stokes and
youngster Juan Salas.
Salas gave up 2 runs in 2/3
of an inning against the Yankees Monday but he was probably victimized a bit by
a Carl Crawford miscue. Last year in the minors between AA Montgomery and AAA Durham Juan held opponents to a
.128 OBA and miniscule .406 OPS over 62 IP with a 12.08 K/9. Those are
impressive numbers if he can translate them to the majors. His MLE for last
year was a 9.66 K/9 with a .147 OBA, well within the specs for our theoretical
successful closer. Salas is obviously the guy with the most potential in this
group but Reyes remains the best bet for saves at this point.
Reyes posted a healthy 9.62
K/9 and .177 OBA in 62 IP with the Cards and career those numbers are
8.68/.216. He has the skill set and will have to pitch his way out of the job.
In KC, Octavio Dotel was placed on the 15-day DL yesterday retroactive to
March 30th with an oblique strain. Right now the Royals feel that
Dotel will be ready when eligible but with obliques
set backs are very real possibilities. But we can't start worrying about that
for a while. David Riske will close
in the meantime if you want to vulture some saves on a short-term basis. We
will keep you posted, right in your very own inbox, in our daily updates.
In wasn't pretty but Joe Borowski survived
two walks and a loud and long last out to close out the Tribe's win over the
White Sox last night. He holds the job for now but it's hard to imagine he'll
be able to hold on all summer. Of course there was a point we might have said
that about Todd Jones as well ... Rafael
Betancourt is probably second in line right now.
Jorge Julio
imploded in his first save opp for the Fish on
Wednesday giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and a walk to the Nats.
There will be days like this for Julio but for now he's still pretty solidly
entrenched as the Marlins closer.
