Keep
your eyes open for the most predicable injury in sports
history. With two phony baloney homers yesterday Barry B*nds moves to
within two homers of a tying Hank Aaron on the
All-Time homerun list, the most predictable sham in sports history (at
least since
the Knicks ended up with Patrick Ewing). He had a full day too, calling
Cubs
fans liars after the game. "I was just hoping they were going to throw
the
balls back like they said. I guess they lied," Bonds said. One more
homer
and the phantom hamstring pull will sideline him until he can return to
the
sycophants in San Francisco.
He may find a little too much heat in Milwaukee
anyway and get some extra rest whether he homers or not. If you have
dailies
keep an eye on the propaganda out of the Giants clubhouse for the
weekend.
Matt
Morris
suffered his 6th loss of
the season, allowing the Cubs 8 runs, 5
earned in 4.2 IP on 12 hits, and a walk without a strikeout. He falls
to 7-6 on
the year and his ERA chins over 4.00 to 4.08. Matt’s trends
of lowering K
rates, and rising BB rates are in their third season. Matt’s
4.5/9 K rate is a
career low and his 2.8/9 BB rate is his highest since 2000. His
indicators seem
to look a lot like what we have seen the last couple of years and the
variance
in his numbers has come from his strand percentage and HR rates. He is
not a
real mystery to hitters these days and Matt’s WHIP tells you
where his ERA is
headed. Multiply his WHIP by three and you arrive north of 4.20 and
that seems
to me like a pretty good prediction. You have seen the best that Matt
has to
offer this year. He is a good sell high if your league is in its
deadline
stretch.
Ted
Lilly
won his
10th game of
the season, working just 5 innings against the Giants
allowing 3 runs on 6 hits and a walk with one strikeout. He improves to
10-4
with a 3.58 ERA. You gotta figure based on history alone that his ERA
is going
to set a course for 4.00 in the second half. True he is out of the AL
East and
pitching in the NL this year and he has limited his walk rate to 2.0/9
as
opposed to 3.4 career. But opponents are hitting just .227 off of him,
26
points lower than his career OBA and he’s benefiting from a
.270 BHIP%. He had
a .301 BHIP% in 05 and a .300 BHIP% in 06 as well as a .291 BHIP%
career. That
smells like market correction to me. Overall you are going to end up
with what
you bargained for with Ted and you will probably even finish the year
with
better numbers than you paid for, but don’t expect a repeat
of the first half.
Yovani
Gallardo
tossed 6 shutout innings at the D-backs on Thursday allowing just 3
hits and
two walks while striking out 4. He collected his second win of the
year,
improving to 2-1 with a nifty 2.34 ERA. In his four starts for the
Brewers this
year Gallardo has given up 6 runs in 25.1 IP (2.13). Overall
he’s fanning 8.0/9
while allowing 2.8 BB/9. Opponents are managing just a .197 average off
of him
due in large part to a .256 BHIP%. He is also standing runners
at 74.4% clip.
Yovani’s GB/FB ratio is level at 1.0 and he has given
up just 1 HR in 34.2 IP
(0.2/9). All of his peripherals are very solid and only his very
favorable .256
BHIP% jumps out at you. Gallardo seems to be all that was promised.
He will
not finish the year with a 2.34 ERA but it looks like he is ready to
make a
very significant contribution.
Sergio
Mitre
scattered 9 hits over 6 IP against the Reds on Thursday, allowing 3
runs, 2
earned with a walk and 4 K. He did not figure into the decision but he
hiked
his ERA a couple points to 2.82. This is his 5th QS in his
last 6
outings and he is doing all the things a less-than-dominant starter has
to do
to be this successful. Sergio is fanning 5.4/9 which is fine
… mediocre … but
fine. He only walks 1.7/9 though and he is sporting an outstanding 2.8
GB
ratio. He has also cut his HR rate this year to 0.4/9. Last year his HR
rate
was 1.5/9 and it was 1.6/9 in 2005. That was in many ways the last
piece to the
puzzle. While giving up HRs on 24.4% of his FBs in 2005 and 19.4% of
his FB in
2006, Mitre has it down to 7.0% of his FB allowed this year.
Here’s the rub
though. His BHIP% is a very average .311 and because he is
allowing balls to
be hit in play opponents are hitting .271 off of him. That leaves a
1.25 WHIP
despite the low walk rate. About 30% of all runners score normally so
that WHIP
should produce about a 3.75 ERA. Sergio’s strand % is a
little favorable at 72%
this year as opposed to 69.3 career so a good chunk of that difference
is
there. And pitchers like Sergio survive on slim margins. If a GB is too
slow to
turn a double play one night or squeaks through for a hit this time
that could
add runs to his bottom line. The message here is that Sergio is
pitching well.
He is unlikely to maintain this pace all year, and he is not
as comforting as a
guy who fans 8 every night, but he is a viable starter who is
paying big
dividends compared to what you probably paid for him.
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