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Prospect Central - June 24, 2007

August 24, 2007 | article by Lou Blasi in Player Commentary (2057)

Will Inman – Brewers
Starter – Throws Right – 6-0, 200 – 2/6/1987

Will is a very good test case for personal philosophies in regards to pitching prospects. To me he is simply not the type of guy I am willing to try to develop because he doesn’t fit my mold. I want power pitchers. I want pitchers who control the game through strikeouts and resist giving up that control by allowing the ball in play.

Statistically Will does just that with his double-digit K rates and his low walk rates but I like to see the work. I like to see how a guy posts that K rate. In Will’s case it’s a case of his breaking stuff being more mature than the hitters at the levels he’s pitching. Will can throw a curve but he two different slurves and a change as well. He can throw a mix at young hitters that they simply cannot handle. His fastball tops out at 92 however. He can place it well and mix things up to keep hitters off of it, but 92 is still just 92.

Can you be an effective pitcher in the majors at 92? Yes, especially if you are a lefty, but the question is can you be a #1 starter at 92? Well, when the next Greg Maddux comes around I will tip my hat and acknowledge the exception, but in general I work on the premise that the answer to that question is no.

I have this battle all the time with my fellow owners but I do not generally invest in speed and location pitchers. The risk is too high and the reward is too low. In many cases pitchers like this need to remodel at every level. Having just been promoted to AA where hitters are less easily thrown by breaking stuff Inman will have to learn again how to get better at fooling hitters. He will nibble more, and in all likelihood dominate less. And that particular challenge will get harder at the next level as well.

In the end, he will likely settle somewhere between a poor man’s #2 and a #4 pitcher dependant on how effective he is in fooling MLB hitters. Think Chuck James. He could even be a little bit better than that if all goes well. But the odds are that you would have to invest 2 more years of roster space to see those cards and the odds of flipping an ace are too high for my liking. In the meantime, you will need to pass up a lot of good young arms who can blow hitters away.

Will may be good, but there are better bets on the board.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B-

Seas Lvl W L   ERA    IP   K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP
2006 A   10 2 1.71 110.2 10.9 2.0 0.2 .194 0.89
2007 A+   4 3 1.72 78.2 11.2 2.6 0.5 .202 1.00
2007 AA   0 1 20.25   2.2   6.8 6.8 0.0 .444 3.00

Billy Rowell – Orioles
Third Base – Bats Right – 6-5, 205 – 9/10/1988

Billy was the 9th overall pick by the Orioles in 2006 and the first High School player taken. The Orioles promptly gave him the biggest bonus they ever paid out and sent him to rookie ball. All he did there was hit .329 and slug .507, numbers he nearly duplicated in a short season A where he ended his first pro season.

Billy’s size makes it hard to believe he can have such compact and quick swing, but the power he creates with that swing is not a surprise. Rowell will not be 19 until September so there still time for him to get heavier and taller. Billy is one of the manufactured baseball kids who grew up eating sleeping and breathing baseball. He also takes coaching and he has already shown advanced ability to adjust.

As you might imagine given his age, Billy has plate command issues, posting 27+ K% in each of his pro seasons, while drawing less than 10% in BB at SSA and A this year. That is obviously a concern but his .375 BHIP% gives you an idea of what he is capable of when he gets the bat on the ball. The good news is that he is whittling away at that K% even if it is not on a pace you would like to see.

The paint isn’t even dry on this kid so you have to try not to form impressions that will linger too long. He is struggling with command and contact but he is playing pro ball at 18 years old. Billy also has a strong desire to get better and you have to drag him out of the cage. And he’s already demonstrated the ability to take advantage of those traits and plug holes in his game as his opponents find them. These are good signs.

Bill has the size, the skills, the work ethic, and the confidence to be an impact, middle-of-the-order player. He will be topping many prospect lists 18 months from now. I see no reason to best against the kid at this point.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - A

Seas Lvl   AB XBH HR SB   AVG   BB%     K%   OBP   SLG
2006 R    152 20   2   3 .329 14.1% 30.9% .424 .507
2006 A-    43   5   1   0 .326 8.5% 27.9% .383 .488
2007 A     91 11   2   2 .286 8.1% 27.5% .343 .462

Adam Jones – Mariners
Outfielder – Bats Right – 6-2, 200 – 8/1/1985

The 27th overall pick in the 2003 draft was sought by some teams as a pitcher, seeing that Adam Jones is capable of a 96-mph fastball. He wanted top play every day at shortstop and the Mariners have met him half way. They have allowed him to develop as an every day player but they converted him to the outfield at the very end of 2005. He has taken root there and he is already considered a fine defensive centerfielder.

Jones is a terrific physical specimen, and a very skilled athlete who can still fill out his frame a bit more. He stings the ball and his athletic strength gives him bat speed and power. The question is one of where his power ceiling is. He can hit 20 on athleticism alone. Once he adds 10-15 pounds and learns how to be a hitter, he could reach 30-homer capability.

Given his speed potential, Jones makes an interesting fantasy package. Most see him as a 20-20 type of outfielder but to me he looks like a guy whose speed game will wilt a bit before he reaches the majors. I see him more as a middle of the order guy who will contribute 12 steals in addition to his 25-30 HRs, than a 20/20 player.

Plate command is his undoing to this point. He has little. He is striking out at a 24.4% rate in AAA this year, which is acceptable for a slugger if he walks. Adam does not, taking the free pass just 8.5% of the time this year, although that’s up from 6.9% in 2006.

Adam has a high ceiling but there is an element of risk involved as well. He is making contact in AAA (hitting .326) but he is also benefiting from a .383 BHIP%. If he cannot command the strike zone better than he has to this point MLB pitchers will exploit that. They did just that in his 74 ABs with the M’s last year in which he hit .216 with a 29.7% K rate.

At 22 in AAA there’s certainly reason for hope that he will mature as a hitter. As he does, he will begin to look more like the 30/15 guy we envision. But does he hit .260 or .280 once he reaches the majors? Playing time as much as anything will limit the amount of homers he hits every year. If he can control the strike zone and hit .270+, he can play enough to hit 30 HRs. If not, the limits to his playing time will limit his productivity as a fantasy player.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B+

Seas Lvl   AB XBH HR SB   AVG   BB%    K%    OBP   SLG
2006 AAA 380 39 16 13 .287 6.9% 20.5% .336 .484
2006 MLB   74   5   1   3 .216 2.6% 29.7% .237 .311
2007 AAA 270 38 16   5 .326 8.5% 24.4% .383 .600

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Prospect Central - June 24, 2007

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