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Have you ever noticed that when TV series get to a certain
episode number they toss out a cheesy “clip
episode” where they cut stuff from
all the previous shows and throw together a low-cost edition? What I am
about
to do is nothing like that … Well, ok, it’s
something like that … but not
exactly. Continuing
our 2007 wrap in Prospect Central, this week we
will looking at 10 of the players who will climb near the top of many
2008
prospect lists. (In no particular order…)
As
an interesting aside (hopefully), I will
also included
some clips … er … excerpts from previous Prospect
Central volumes to see where
we thought these players should be earlier, and compare that to what
they have
done since. See?
It is referencing … It’s not a cheesy clips
episode…
Clay
Buchholz – SP –
Red Sox In
Volume 8 of Prospect Central (PC) I said: “A supplemental first round pick for the Sox
in 2005,
Clay has dominated three levels in his first two pro
seasons… Clay represents
true Ace potential even though he is still a bit underrated in many
circles. He
will however be near the top of many top prospect lists this time next
year I
suspect, including ours here at Prospect Central.” Later,
on June 26th after
seeing him pitch for Portland against Manchester
I wrote: “Clay
has been
selected to play in the 2007 Futures Game and the Red Sox sandwich pick
in
2005, the 42nd player taken overall, seems to be
straining at the
leash developmentally. I am guessing the only reason he is not in AAA
now is
that the Red Sox feel no urge to rush the young man. The Red Sox as an
organization however feel they will not bring a player to the majors
unless
they see him face some adversity and gauge how they handle it. Clay is
probably
not going to be challenged too much in AA, so their hand may be forced. As
telling as anything
last night, the nearly 7,000 in attendance gave the visiting Buchholz a
prolonged standing ovation as he left the mound, no doubt with visions
of him
in Fenway dancing in their heads.As I
speculated in week #8 it seems certain that Clay’s days of
being underrated as
a prospect are near an end.” Well
we all know what happened after that. Boston’s
hand was forced, as Clay was a man
among boys in AA (7-2, 1.77, 0.89). He was sent to AAA where he did
find a
little challenge before being called up in mid-August for a spot start
against
the Angels where he posted a QS, if only barely. The
feeling in the organization was that he let his focus
slip a little bit after coming back from the majors but over 8 starts
in AAA he
went 1-3 on a bad team with a 3.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He gave up just
32 hits
in 38.2 IP (.227 OBA) but walked 13 (3.03). To an extent he fell victim
to am
unfavorable .333 BHIP% and a very unfavorable 64.1% strand percentage,
but he
did learn that he couldn’t just naturally dominate hitters.
He needed to bring
everything, his stuff, his focus, and his head to the mound to be the
elite pitcher
he was capable of being.
Then
came the injury to Tim Wakefield and on less than 48
hours notice, Clay went out and no-hit the Orioles on September 1st.
One thing the Red Sox wanted Clay to learn in AAA was how to work
batters over
the course of a game, selecting pitches in the first meeting with a
batter,
with an eye towards his second and third AB in the game. Jason Varitek
needs to
be given a lot of credit for the no-hitter as he grabbed Clay by the
hand in a
pitch selection sense and asked a lot of him. Clay just followed Jason
and
threw whatever Jason wanted in whatever count Jason wanted it, and he
threw
everything with command. That night the Red Sox battery gave new
meaning to the
term “baffling hitters”. I
honestly cannot decide which is better, his change or his
hellacious 12-6 curve. However, he wraps those around a fastball with
life. His
stuff is incredible, and he has raised his pitching IQ tremendously
this year. He
is The Real Deal.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade: I gave him an “A” in Volume 8.
He
is now an A+
Justin
Upton – OF –
D-Backs I
profiled Justin Upton way back in Volume 1 of PC as part
of a piece on great young prospects in the low minors. Of
that group, Jose Tabata and Fernando
Martinez had good years but were injured, Colby Rasmus did not come too
far
level-wise, but he flashed his considerable talent, and two guys,
Justin Upton
and Cameron Maybin made it to the show.
Here
is what I wrote about Upton: “Even
by professional
sports standards Justin is an exceptional athlete and even that works
against
him to a degree. Sometimes gifted players lean too heavily on their
athleticism
and as a result they back burner their skill development …
His 6-1, 195lb frame
already looks MLB-ready as do his physical skills. What is going to be
fun is
watching the bearing of his physical skills cross the bearing of his
baseball
skills. When that happens there will be a mushroom cloud.” After
a fast start in high-A (.341, 5 HRs, 9 SBs, a .540
SLG% and .967 OPS), Justin barely slowed down when he hit AA. He batted
.309,
holding his K rate below 20% (19.7%) with a +10% BB rate (12.5%) and oh
ya, he
slugged .556 with a 34 XBH in 259 ABs (right around a pace of 62 XBH
and 25 HRs
over 500 ABs).
His
adult baseball incisors are clearly coming in as his BB
rate and K rate held steady, at healthy levels, despite a big level
jump. In his last full month in AA, July, he hit
305, drawing 19 walks (23.1%) in 82 ABs with just 13 Ks (15.8%) and a
.585
SLG%.
He
is experiencing growing pains in the majors right now
(29.5% K rate, .221 AVG, .275 OBP in 95 ABS) but man this kid is going
to be
fun to watch.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade: In Week #1 I gave Justin an
“A+”. I
do not think he will steal a ton of bases, nor do I think he quite has
40-HR
power (although I really hate to put a ceiling on this just-turned-20
year old),
but Justin is simply one of the best prospects on the board. A+
Ian
Kennedy – SP –
Yankees Last
week I profiled the Yankees other …well, after Phillip
Hughes I guess I have to say third … great pitching
prospect, Ian Kennedy:
“Joba
Chamberlain has
gotten a lot of the Yankees prospect ink this season but Kennedy may
have
actually had the better year. Ian
made his MLB debut
yesterday limiting the Rays to 1 run in 7 IP on 5 hits, 2 walks and 6
K. Ian
climbed three levels in 2007 finishing in AAA where he was 1-1, 2.08 in
6
starts, with a 1.04 WHIP and .204 OBA. That line was helped by a .265
BHIP% and
a 85.6% strand percentage. Ian is
not
overpowering, throwing in the 88-92 range and he has a fastball with
natural
sink, which helps him keep the ball in the ballpark (0.52 HR/9 in AAA).
But
location is his game, not that he has tremendous control (2.8 BB/9 in
AAA) It
easier to like
pitchers who throw hard but Kennedy is making a living out of defying
that
bias. Still, he has come a long way in short time and there plenty of
indicators (favorable strand% and BHIP%, high walk rate) that give you
pause. If he
can maintain his
power K rate (8.8 in AAA) at the MLB level despite the lack of true
power
stuff, and if he can maintain his sterling HR rate in the majors he can
continue to be very effective. He did just that Saturday, however, he
has to
show me at least, he can do it long-term.” Moneyball
taught us all about “biases” and how they color
what we think of a player. I have a bias against soft tossing (when a
pitcher
throws multiple fastballs in the 80’s during an outing and
tops out around 92
he is a “soft tosser” for the purposes of this
discussion) pitchers, especially
when their 6-0 listed height is questionable, and they are
right-handed. As a
result, I am going to be a little stubborn about Ian until he kicks it
out of
me.
Ian
has had a terrific year in 2007, rising from high-A to
the majors and despite his lack of a dominant fastball he has
maintained high K
rates and OBAs of .204 or better over three levels. I have to look at
his BHIP%
(.259, .238, and .265 at A+, AA, and AAA respectively) and his strand %
(89.5%,
74.1%, 85.6%) and wonder what his line will be like if he
can’t maintain any of
these indicators at the MLB level.
Well,
we only have 12 IP to work with, but his MLB BHIP% is
level at .299, which has brought his OBA, in starts against the
free-swinging
Rays and the Royals, to a mediocre .262. His ERA sits at 2.25 despite a
WHIP
(1.42) that is just better than average. That is due to a
still-favorable 76.9%
strand %. Level that off at 70% and we are looking at a 3.82 ERA.
That’s still
good of course, but not “elite” good. His
K rate has dropped to 6.0 in the majors and his BB rate
has spiked at 3.7/9.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade: I gave him a “B-“ last week and
I
stand my ground 7 days later. We can dissect his two starts, but it is
useless
given the sample size and his inexperience. Moreover, at this level
maybe the
coaches can get more GBOs out of the sink on his fastball, which will
be key in
terms of his potential in the majors. The bottom line is that I think
he has
overachieved considering the level of his stuff. I would not get too
enamored. Joba
Chamberlain - SP
– Yankees In
Volume 9 of PC this year, I said: “Chamberlain
has not
been wowed by high-A so far fanning over 10/9 while controlling his
walks and
winning the contact battles with opposing hitters. Joba is very close
to being
a MLB-usable product and he should see AA well before the year is done.
He has
the stuff and the makeup to succeed. If he can remain healthy, he could
join
the line of viable young Yankees starters parading to the Bronx
as early as next spring.” The
people who have been wowed this year are Joba’s opposing
hitters and every armchair fantasy prospector in the country. Joba
did end up in AA where he went 4-2, 3.35, 1.17 in 40.1
IP (7 starts, 8 apps). Opponents hit .220 off him and that was with an
unfavorable .370 BHIP%. In AA he fanned 14.7/9 and the Yankees,
desperate for
bullpen help decided to see what he could do at AAA.
He
made 3 apps with 1 start at that level not allowing a run
over 8 IP while giving up 5 hits and 1 walks against 18 strikeouts
… 18 … in 8
IP at AAA. That was all the Yankees needed to see before bringing him
up.
In
the majors Chamberlain has yet to give up a run in 14.1
IP, striking out 18 (11.3 K rate) with just 4 walks (2.5). He is
holding
opponents to a 0.77 WHIP and .148 OBA (with the help of a .238 BHIP%).
The
hitters in the majors will start to gain some traction on him as they
see him
more, but clearly, he has the ability to be very effective at this
level.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade: In Volume 9 I gave Joba a “B”.
He
has done plenty of extra credit work to up that grade. His health
prospects are
still an issue, as Joe Torre’s “Joba
Rules” suggest. That will keep him down to
a mere “A” as his final grade, but with a bullet. Clayton
Kershaw- SP
– Dodgers In
Volume 13 of PC this year I wrote:
“Kershaw
is already
built to throw a baseball and as his body matures, he may be able to
upgrade his
mid-90s heat. He will tip 96 on occasion but Clay can pump out 93 mph
fastballs
with impressive consistency. He also has a plus curve that seems to
take
forever to get there and has good downward bite. He can show over 20
mph in
separation between his fastball and curve and he is proficient with a
change.
That pitch is still a work in progress but the Dodgers staff knows that
this
kid takes coaching and feels confident of its development …
Clay is scarily
reminiscent of Orel Hershiser in stuff and the dichotomy between his
laid back
personality and bull dog (there ..I said it! …) approach in
the mound. He is a
ways away but Clay has #1 starter written all over him.” After
handling A with aplomb this year (7-5, 2.77, 1.25,
.208 OBA, 12.3 K/9), Clayton hit AA at 19 years old and handled himself
well
for 24.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA while striking out 10.5/9.
Opponents
hit just .196 off him but Clayton had a huge tail wind in that regard
in his
.243 BHIP%. Most of the blood on this line came in his first two
outings at AA
and he settled down quite a bit after that. Overall, he finished with a
12.0/9
K rate over two levels, third in the entire minors. Admittedly, his
numbers
were mostly forged in the pitching-friendly Midwest League, but they do
tell a
story. He
also walked 6.2/9 (17) in that 24.2 AA IP after walking
4.6/9 in 97.1 A IP. That is a sharp departure from his 1.2 BB rate in
rookie
ball in 2006 and it is where his age vs. level shows up.
You
have to keep his age in context. A 19-year-old kid
handling AA hitters is a beautiful thing.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade: I gave him an “A” back in
Volume 13
and I refuse to up that grade until he turns 20. There is along way to
go, but
this kid looks like an elite pitcher in the making.
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