A few weeks ago, we took a glance at the top-15 fantasy first basemen and their lefty/righty splits. The results were compelling (check it out here). Some 1B with super-star reputations simply became average performers based on the handedness of the pitcher.
So, I've decided to take a look at another deep fantasy position - Outfielders. This time, instead of just taking the top-15, I've extended the sample to the top-10 from the AL and NL. Again, FPI will be the determining factor and I will primarily focus on 2006 performances.
The staples of consistency for the American League look like this:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
Ichiro Suzuki
0.12
Jermaine
0.10
0.05
Manny Ramirez
0.07
Johnny Damon
0.02
And here’s the list of players who have significant
differences when facing lefties and righties:
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Grady Sizemore
0.40
Vlad
0.40
Torii Hunter
0.19
Bobby Abreu
0.15
Carl Crawford
0.15
The results are, once again, clear. Certain players are not significantly affected by the type of pitcher they are facing. Manny Ramirez is the perfect example of a player who is equally as valuable regardless of the handedness of the pitcher he faces. Against lefties, he posted a 0.94 FPI compared to a 0.87 FPI against right-handed pitchers. The difference is minimal. Other players who show consistency in this split are Ichiro, Vernon Wells, Jermaine Dye, and Johnny Damon.
However, a look at the second American League table produces some shocking results. Vlad Guerrero, while an incredible fantasy talent, yields the largest FPI difference at 0.40. Against a lefty, Vlad is off the charts with an FPI of 1.10, but he drops to 0.71 when there is a righty on the mound. Let's take a look at the other outlier on this list: Grady Sizemore. The Indians center fielder also has a 0.40 difference in FPI. Against righties, Sizemore was great with a 0.89 FPI. Bring in the lefty and suddenly he becomes a very average player with a sub-.50 FPI. My first reaction was to chalk it up to youth and it may not be completely fair to judge Sizemore based on his 2nd year in the league. But the results so far in 2007 are very similar... 0.55 FPI against lefties and 0.90 FPI against righties through May 11.
Similar to the AL tables, here's a look at the top-5 NL outfielders with small differences in FPI:
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0.11
Adam Dunn
0.11
Carlos Lee
0.09
Andruw Jones
0.03
Matt Holliday
0.01
Some players on this list were basically the same hitter regardless of the type of pitcher. Matt Holliday's FPI was basically the same versus lefties and righties. His HR/AB was significantly different at 26.8 against left-handed pitchers compared to 16.5 against righties, but Holliday continues to produce even if the power goes down against lefties.
If you had blindly asked me other names on this consistency list, I would never have guessed lefty Adam Dunn. For a guy who struck out once every 3.5 plate appearances and who only hit .234, you would think he would have really struggled against lefties. But the numbers for 2006 are the complete opposite for Dunn. While his K/PA were exactly the same at about 3.4, Dunn ended 2006 hitting .270 against lefties with an .896 OPS compared to just .215 and a .838 OPS against righties. If you dig a bit deeper into Dunn's numbers, 2006 is a strange year. In the previous two seasons, his OPS against righties was over 1.000 and significantly better than lefties. This season, the trend is the same, but the difference remains inconsequential.
And the bad list:
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Lance Berkman
0.35
Bill Hall
0.28
Alfonso Soriano
0.23
Carlos Beltran
0.18
Lance Berkman is the player with the biggest difference. This is a bit shocking, considering he's a switch hitter. You would think that switch hitting would allow the player to normalize the performance differences based on the handedness of the pitcher. But, two switch hitters make this list with Berkman and Beltran.
On the weak ends, Berkman and Bill Hall both become very average players with a low 0.60 FPI. Power measured by OPS goes down for Hall, dropping from 1.075 to .847. His HR/AB drops from 18.1 to 10.0. Berkman's differences are even more pronounced, yielding a drop in OPS of 1.143 to .791 and a drop in HR/AB from 30.8 to 9.6.
It's difficult to make the decision to ever bench superstars on this list. Other match-up considerations (such as batter/pitcher histories) should be analyzed in coordination with this information. But if a player is slumping or faces a difficult match-up against a dominant pitcher, having the flexibility to swap out multiple outfielders can maximize your team's overall FPI.
Have a great weekend!
