First Pitch - April 13, 2007 - Lefty/Right Match-Ups

Joe Ribando

Apr 13, 2007

Lefty/Righty Match-Ups

We all know about the advantage a pitcher has over a batter when the handedness is the same. It's usually tougher for a lefty hitter to hit off a lefty pitcher. The same thing goes for righties.

But how do these match-ups affect daily fantasy decisions? An analysis of your team's match-ups can help make important "play or bench"decisions. Certain hitters are more affected by lefty/righty pitching match-ups than others.

In today's First Pitch, I take a look at the top-15 first basemen in the major leagues and their splits against lefty and righty pitchers in 2006. I specifically focused on the FPI (Fantasy Production Indicator) to determine overall fantasy value. For the newcomers, you can find a thorough explanation of FPI here. I use it in this analysis to best analyze fantasy value by the lefty/righty split.

The results are clear. Certain players are not significantly affected by the type of pitcher they are facing. Albert Pujols is the perfect example of a player who is able to effectively hit lefties and righties equally, posting a 2006 FPI of 0.92 against lefties and a 0.96 against righties. In fact, Pujols' performance is an anomaly; you would expect his fantasy production to be slightly better against lefties. But when you're in the 0.90+ FPI echelon, the differences become minimal.

Other first basemen yielding less than a 0.10 difference in FPI between the lefty/right split like Albert Pujols include:

* 2005 results were used for Lee since he sat-out most of the 2006 season with injuries.

While the fantasy players above maintain a solid level of consistency regardless of their opponent's handedness, a list of high-profile players reveals an opposite effect:

Since the differences of the top-4 on this list are significant, let's take a closer look at their 2006 statistics:

Lance Berkman (Bats: Switch) - Berkman is a completely different player against lefties. His HR/AB ratio dropped from 9.6 against righties to 30.8 when facing lefties. That drop in power production resulted in a change in OPS from 1.143 to 0.791. That's the difference between an "Average"1B and a "Fantasy God."

Ryan Howard (Bats: Left) - The impressive result of Howard's difference in FPI is that he maintains a 0.70+ FPI against both types of pitchers. However, the difference of 0.28 is still significant. His HR production is not affected much with a HR/AB of 12.3 against lefties and 9.1 against righties, but his average goes from .279 to .331 and his K/PA rate goes from 0.22 to 0.35.

Carlos Delgado (Bats: Left) - Delgado is the most interesting case in this analysis. Against righties, with a 0.77 FPI, Delgado is a solid "Fantasy Star." His HR/AB is 11.8, OPS is 0.975, and his BB/K is 0.76. Let's make a call to the bullpen and bring in a lefty. Suddenly, Delgado becomes "Slightly Below Average"with a 0.49 FPI, a HR/AB of 22.7, and a halved EYE of 0.36.

Jason Giambi (Bats: Left) - Giambi is like Delgado, except the difference from 2006 isn't quite as severe. He maintains a solid HR/AB of 14.1 against lefties and 11.4 against righties, but his OPS changes from 0.797 to 1.021. The most interesting split for the Giambino is the change in his OBP (0.324 versus lefties compared to 0.429 against righties). This variance in OBP is driven from his BB/K rate of 0.58 against L and 1.27 against R. That's quite a difference that results in a significant change in Giambi's runs-created from 19 to 81.

Thinking about your fantasy line-up this way can have a tremendous affect. For example, if Carlos Delgado is facing a lefty one evening, you may consider swapping him out for a player with less variance or with a historical FPI greater than 0.49. If you have the flexibility to make this swap based on match-up, you can maximize your team's blended FPI and help maximize your chance for fantasy success.

Enjoy the weekend!