Gary Matthews Jr. is just one more example of an underperforming player early in the 2008 season. His huge drop-off over the last two years makes him even more unattractive from a fantasy standpoint and, for you, an opportunity to acquire cheaply as he rebounds over the next month or two. Let's dig-in to the stats and see what we can find. In his big breakout season of 2006, Matthews hit .313, .867 OPS, HR/AB of 32.6, 10 SB, and anFPI of 0.72. That led to a big contract with the Angels in the following year (and mix-in some steroid accusations) and he followed with a .252 average, .743 OPS, 28.7 HR/AB, 18 SB, and anFPI of 0.58. Quite a drop in one season, but you can consider that a bottoming-out point in his overall performance. For this season, he's even FURTHER off these numbers, hitting .238, .657 OPS, 40.0 HR/AB, 1 SB, and anFPI of .44. That's a difference in FPI in just over a year of .28! He simply will not stay this low for the rest of the season and if you grab him now, you can capitalize on his statistical correction back to the high 0.50'sFPI level.
Yankees owner Hank Steinbrenner is showing that the (big) apple doesn't fall far from the tree. He has publicly said he wants Joba Chamberlain in the rotation with youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy struggling for the Yanks. We will see how manager Joe Girardi reacts to management's request, but if an owner gave up on Chamberlain because he has been a relief pitcher so far in 2008, now would be a good time to grab him and stash him in case the move to the rotation comes earlier than originally expected.
Julio Lugo has a modest 6-game hitting streak going, raising his average to .273. After an absolutely dismal first 3-months of 2007 (where he ended up hitting under .100 for the month of June), Lugo looks to be more comfortable at the plate and is back to his slap-hitting methods that helped him post his .308 average in 300 AB with the Rays in 2006. Despite last year's attrocious performance at that plate and a .294 OBP, he still managed to swipe 33 bases in 39 attempts. If he can boost his OBP by 20 points, we could see an incremental few SB. Not a bad philosophy to concentrate speed at the SS position if you're in need of a MI fill-in.
Ian Kinsler gets lost in Texas and doesn't get much airtime, but he's having a nice start to the 2008 fantasy season (despite yesterday being his first HR of the season). He already has 6 SB and is hitting .286 with a .345 OBP. The power will come around and should be in-line with last year's 24.2 HR/AB rate that yielded 20 HR. A look at his FPI trend shows he's steadily improving as well, with a 0.65 in his rookie year 2006, 0.67 last year, and already 0.70 last season. A sure 20/20 season is ahead of him when the power catches up with the speed. Up-arrow for the Rangers' 2B.
Scott Rolen is injured, again, and Troy Glaus has yet to hit a HR. Talk about an underwhelming off-season trade. In 62 AB with the Cardinals, Glaus is hitting just .242 with a .711 OPS, again no HR's from the slugger, and 10 RBI. He is walking a lot, which keeps his OBP at a respectable .350, but that is his only redeeming quality at this point. Glaus is nothing more than a mixed league fill-in right now, but might be a decent consideration for Monday night's game if you have an open roster spot. He's facing Carlos Villaneuva of Milwaukee who gave up an average of 1.26 HR/9 last season, Glaus is obviously "due" for a power surge, and Milwaukee is certainly a HR-hitting ballpark, ranking in the top-10 in HR allowed for 2007.
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