March 31, 2010 - Fantistics Preseason Notes
Chicago White Sox
1. Carlos Quentin (OF - White Sox) - Its no secret I'm a big supporter of the "Carlos Quentin 2010 Bounce Back" campaign. He's had a modest spring, but is ending on a high-note with 2 HR in the last 3 games. While injuries have been a concern for fantasy owners, I truly believe a steady presence in the DH spot should keep him healthier throughout the long season. At just 27 and hitting his prime, we have him projected to return to his 2008 results of 30+ HR, 100 RBI, 90 R. Don't let a good buy in Quentin pass you by. If he's there around the 10th round, I think you're going to get good bang-for-your-buck on this one.
2. Gavin Floyd (SP - White Sox) - The 27-year-old Floyd is on the low-end of that 4th tier of shaded pitches in the Fantistics Fantasy Draft software for 2010. That provides a great opportunity to get a 170 K guy at a cheap price (ADP of 18.0+, EAV of $8) while giving you some upside that could yield 13 wins, a sub-4.00 ERA, and a solid 1.25 WHIP. Not a bad #3 pitcher for a staff at a great price. Playing at U.S. Ceullar, one of the worst parks for pitchers with a ballpark factor of 82, causes concern (as does a HR/9 of 1.15 with a sub-1.0 GO/AO over the last two seasons). But a high K rate, a few full seasons under his belt, and unlucky win totals for 2009 could elevate him to the next level for 2010. He's moving up my lists.
Kansas City Royals
1. Gil Meche (SP - Royals) - There aren't many SP considerations after Zack Greinke. As I mentioned earlier in the season, Meche was once a household name, but has suffered from right shoulder tightness this spring, diminishing his fantasy value even more and really making him just an AL-only candidate at best. He'll be limited to a 60-70 pitch count when he takes the mound on Thursday, but he claims to feel good enough to go longer. If all goes well, he'll pitch Game 2 on April 7th against the Tigers. Meche doesn't add much to the fantasy equation. He might get you a K/9 of 7.0 at best, but double-digit wins would be lucky at a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in Kansas City.
2. The Injury Bug - The Royals cannot afford to suffer injury setbacks like they have so far in 2010. Starting 3B and perpetual emerging star Alex Gordon will begin the season on the bench with a broken thumb. His replacement, Alberto Callaspo will probably be out of action for opening day with a pulled right side. If Callaspo can't play, you'll likely see either Mike Aviles or Willie Bloomquist as his replacement, but both of those guys are banged up too. Aviles had off-season elbow surgery and Bloomquist is on the comeback from knee surgery from 2009. As mentioned above, Meche has shoulder tightness and CF Rick Ankiel just returned to the lineup after suffering a sore ankle.
New York Yankees
1. Nick Swisher (OF - Yankees) - It took forever, but Nick Swisher finally hit his first home run of the spring yesterday. This guy is a steal on draft day, in my opinion. He's going really late in mixed league drafts (ADP of 20.0+), has 30+ HR potential, posts an OBP of .370+, and will get 500+ AB in a stacked Yankees lineup (which should yield runs and RBI opportunities of ~80 each). I guarantee there are marginally better outfielders who only yield slightly better statistics that get drafted 10 rounds earlier that Swisher (I'm looking at YOU Michael Cuddyer with an ADP of 13.0 and aequivalent 0.67 forecasted FPI for 2010).
Player Notes
1. Adam Lind (OF - Blue Jays) - So much emphasis is placed on NOT paying attention to spring stats, its sometimes difficult to completely shut it off without wondering "what if this continues?" For you Lind owners, I'm sure you may be a little nervous after this past spring. He's just 8-for-39 (.205) this spring and has been REALLY cold over the past week or so. Take a deep breath and, if you haven't drafted yet, don't let his spring scare you. Not only is Lind coming off a 35 HR, 114 RBI breakout season in 2009, he has the average and OBP from the minors to back it up as well. Sure, we think he'll come down to earth a little, projected for 32 HR and a sub-.300 average, but not a lot. Stay the course with Lind and don't let him slip because of a few bad weeks in spring training.
2. Rodrigo Lopez (SP - Diamondbacks) - The D-Backs officially declared Rodrigo Lopez their 4th starter yesterday and optioned Billy Buckner (10.00+ ERA this spring) to Triple-A. Kevin Mulvey was also in the running, but posted a 5.79 ERA and was also optioned to Triple-A. The 34-year-old Rodrigo has had a decent spring with a 2.35 ERA in 15+ IP, but very little fantasy value should be placed in him for 2010 (unless you really need someone in late rounds in NL-only leagues). Lopez's career ERA is 4.82, WHIP of 1.41, and K/9 of 5.96 is nothing special and is on the decline.
3. Will Venable (OF - Padres) - He's already on everyone's radar for NL-only leagues, but keep Will Venable on your mixed league watch list as well coming out of spring training. With 20/20 potential for 2010, Venable is 19 for 56 this spring with 3 HR. With 293 AB under his belt in 2009, Venable cranked out 12 HR including 5 at home in the massive Petco Park. We could see some crazy streaks out of Venable this season though, so be sure to buy him on the upswing. His lefty/righty splits and low EYE are prime candidates for extended slumps and hot streaks. He had a .505 SLG against righties last year compared to just .239 against lefties. His EYE was just .281 as well. Either way, he has the power and speed to make him watch-list worthy.
4. Carlos Gomez (OF - Brewers) - I wrote about him two weeks ago for raising eyebrows on the basepaths and he still hasn't slowed down. He's now 11-for-11 in stolen base attempts and is still hitting over .300 for the spring. Posting just a 0.43 FPI last season, a decline from 0.51 in 2008, Gomez saw most of his major statistical categories go down year-over-year. However, we did see a slight maturing plate discipline with a BB/K going from .176 to .306. The 24-year-old is a free swinger that needs to improve his BB/PA rate of 15.5 from last year and 24.4 from the year before to be given the green light to swipe bases. If we could see even a respectable OBP, I think we're in for 40+ SB from the speedster.
5. Tom Gorzelanny (SP - Cubs) - Its easy to forget that Tom Gorzelanny is only 27. He came up in 2005 with the Pirates and has mixed results for his fantasy owners. He seemed to peak in 2007 when he went 14-10 for the Pirates with a 3.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.02 K/9, and a 0.34 BB/I. Since then, Gorzo has pitched a total of 199.3 IP between the Pirates and Cubs over a 2-year period with a 6.14 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 and 0.52 BB/I. That's a solid K/9 increase from his breakout season of '07. This spring, he's looking more like his old-self, but hasn't lost the K's. In 21.2 IP, he is posting a 3.32 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, but has a 6.7 K/9. He may be a decent pitch-and-ditch candidate throughout the season, but at a minimum should be on radars for NL-only.
6. Ben Sheets (SP - A's) - Sheets is starting to get his feel back. After getting shelled in back-to-back outings, giving up 14 ER in just 2.2 IP, Sheets has pitched 9.1 IP in two outings and has given up just 2 ER with 9 K's. He has walked 8 in those innings, proving he's still not quite there and is still trying to get his stuff and his mechanics back. Afterall, he didn't take the mound at all in 2009 after undergoing elbow surgery. Sheets is a great buy right now with a 20.0 ADP, a $1-$2 price tag, and the potential to post 150+ K's and a sub-4.00 ERA.
7. Dontrelle Willis (SP - Tigers) - Ladies and Gentleman, meet your #3 starter for the 2010 Tigers. With the trade of Nate Robertson to the Marlins, Willis' spot in the rotation was solidified and confirmed by manager Jim Leyland on Tuesday. It wasn't TOO long ago that Willis was a top fantasy pitcher, but since then we've battled injuries, anxiety disorder, a loss of velocity, wildness, and a move from the NL to the AL. But in spring training, Willis has shown a glimmer of hope for those fantasy owners taking a last round chance on the starter. In 19.1 IP, Willis has posted a 3.26 ERA with 13 K's, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 1.50 GO/AO. 12 walks proves he's still as wild as ever, but he's been wild down, as Leyland constantly points out, inducing ground ball outs. And, he should be able to get away with the occasional wild-high syndrome in Comerica Park.
8. Colby Lewis (SP - Texas Rangers) - After spending a couple of years in Japan, Colby Lewis is back in the big leagues with the Rangers, earning a rotation spot heading into 2010. For AL-only consideration only, Lewis has a few strikes working against him. The 30-year-old's previous stint in the big leagues was a huge bust, posting a 6.71 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, and an opposing OPS of .913 over a 5-year period with Texas, Detroit, and Oakland. Most importantly, his strikeout rates are just mediocre and his GO/AO remains below 1.0 even through this spring. We all know what Texas can do to a pitcher, so a couple of dominating years in Japan shouldn't be enough to get too irrational about Lewis. We have him projected for a 4.28 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 125 K's if he can put up ~180 IP. I wouldn't expect too much more out of Lewis from an upside perspective and I'd only consider him as a steal in value on draft day.
9. Francisco Liriano (SP/RP - Twins) - Well, manager Ron Gardenhire didn't make it official, but Liriano leaked the info for his fantasy owners. While Gardy said he still needed to meet with the front office regarding Liriano's role for 2010, Liriano told the press that he was told he will be pitching Game 5 of the season on April 9th against the White Sox. So much for secrets! Whatever the truth is (which will probably be announced in the next few days), Liriano has had a great spring, stiking out 30 in 20 IP with a 1.90 GO/AO rate and just 5 BB's allowed. He's climbing up draft boards and has the potential to be an ace once again. He's struggled with his fair share of injuries, but he certainly looks to be back at full strength after such a dominating spring training. If he slips to middle rounds, he's a great risk.
10. Lance Berkman (1B - Astros) - The 34-year old Berkman suffered a slight setback on Tuesday with some knee swelling after running and taking ground balls. Not a good sign after having arthroscopic surgery this past offseason. He won't be ready for opening day and doesn't have the luxury of being a temporary DH in the NL. Drop Berkman another round or two in your drafts as this injury could take awhile to get Berkman back on his feet and playing at full capacity.
