Todd Frazier- What can we say about Todd Frazier? He continues to be as elite a power hitter as we have in the game. His 14th home run of the season left the park on Wednesday, and his 45.5% Fly Ball Rate and 21.7% HR/FB Rate paint the picture that support his profile as an exceptional power hitter. While the power seems to be a solid profile to continue towards another 25+ home run campaign, his .260 average may actually rebound some. His .248 BABIP would be the lowest in three years, and it seems likely to correct at least somewhat. As is, I'd say .260 is a solid bet to be a number you can count on from Frazier with the potential for 5-10 point jump if that BABIP corrects. Overall, I'm not sure you will find much better value at the hot corner moving forward in 2015.
Carlos Gonzalez- I'm not sure there has been a more disappointing fantasy asset over the past several seasons than CarGo. Once upon a time, owners could count on the Rockies outfielder for 20/20 seasons without much concern. In 2014, injury destroyed those expectations, and in 2015, he just seems to be a shadow of his former self. The only hope that owners have is that his statistics take a positive regression back towards his previous career norms. His .239 BABIP is the lowest of his career, which tends to lead us to believe his average will bounce back. I'm a bit more concerned with his power. Gonzalez has always been a predominantly ground ball hitter, but he managed to get by during his mid-20's with fantastic HR/FB rates that made up for his ground ball tendencies. Lately, he has seen a 5-6% drop-off from his HR/FB rates, which doesn't support a 20+ home run hitter. We may be lucky to get 15 out of Gonzalez at his current pace. Overall, he will improve on his exceedingly worrisome start, but it won't be anywhere near the 2013 value.
A.J. Burnett- A.J. Burnett's revival has been one of the best stories of 2015. Burnett is striking out 23.1% of the batters he faces while generating a 54.8% ground ball rate. This is just on the verge of the elite 25%/50% plateau that we look for to identify fantasy aces. Burnett has regained his form and is a player that is a must start in all leagues right now. On the daily side of the fantasy ledger, he has an up and down San Diego roster in pitcher friendly San Diego on Thursday. He is an expensive piece, but one that I feel is worth paying up for based on his match-up and performance this season. Fanduel Salary- $9,600.00.
Justin Bour- Justin Bour went deep for the third time this season on Wednesday. He has played fairly regularly for the Fish over the course of the last week or so, which has provided him the opportunity to hit two of those three home runs. Bour is worth a look in deeper leagues if only for those in desperate need of power. His ISO has been above .150 over his last four minor league seasons. While his ISO has always been substantial, I'm concerned about his viability as anything but a temporary waiver claim because his major league tendency has been towards an exceedingly high ground ball rate which limits his upside as a big time power player. His plate appearances may also vary enough that his value could be limited moving forward.
Noah Syndergaard- When Zach Wheeler went down before the season, we were left to wonder how the Mets would fill-in behind ace Matt Harvey. Noah Syndergaard has done a fantastic job through three starts of answering that question. Syndergaard has a 21.8% K Rate, which is solid, but his calling card so far as been limiting base runners with only a 5% BB Rate through those four starts. While we would like to see a better ground ball rate than his current 41.7%, his stuff should make up for it as he is currently averaging 96.7 MPH on his fastball. Syndergaard is still only owned in 66% of traditional leagues. That number needs to increase substantially before his next start.
Today's NL Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
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