In our continuing series on the Sabermetric analysis that shapes our Player projections in our 2024 Player Projections Draft Advisor. Today we'll take a look at some of the indicators that are defining our 2024 Pitcher projections:
George Kirby (SP-SEA) ended 2023 recording a 3.52 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, and 3.63 xFIP in his 31 starts (190 IP) this season. While his K/9 isn't exactly impressive, his swinging-strike rate isn't bad at 11% while he has displayed excellent control and limited hard contact (32%). Coming off of a stellar rookie campaign (3.39 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and 3.33 xFIP in 25 starts (130 IP), Kirby has cemented himself as a reliable fantasy contributor, but even a slight uptick in his K-rate to a punchout per inning will make him about a top 10-15 SP for fantasy. - ahodge 2023 BABIP: 0.292(-0.039)| SwStr%: 11%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.44(-0.01)| Walk/9: 0.9(-0.6)| Avg FB: 96.1(0.9)| FB/Chg Split: 9.4(-87.0)| Zone Contact%: 87%(2%)| HR Distance: 395ft(6)| Strand%: 0.75(0.00)| 95MPH+%: 40.9(2.2)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.1)| Elevation%: 12.4(1.1)| Barrels%: 7.5(-1.4)| HR/FB%: 11%(2%)| xFIP: 3.63(0.28)| xSLG: 0.425(0.029)
Logan Gilbert Gilbert finished the 2023 season with a career high 190.2 IP. He posted a 3.73 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and 3.76 xFIP, so his results were in line with his fortune. Gilbert had a K/9 of 8.92 and a low 1.70 BB/9. He increased his SwStr% from 10.8% in 2022 to 12.1%. His record was 12-7, following on the heels of a 12-6 in 2022. Gilbert has established himself as a key part of Seattle's rotation and that shouldn't change in 2024. - paul00 | Elite 13% SwStr % in 2nd half of 2023 with elite 1.6 BB/9. Has steadily improved GB% to be close to league average, if he takes another step there, he could finish in the top 10. 2023 BABIP: 0.272(-0.020)| SwStr%: 12%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.41(0.05)| Walk/9: 1.7(-0.7)| Avg FB: 95.7(-0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 95.7(-0.4)| Zone Contact%: 85%(1%)| HR Distance: 389ft(-12)| Strand%: 0.75(-0.02)| 95MPH+%: 44.6(-1.0)| Avg Velocity: 91(-0.5)| Elevation%: 13.6(-1.0)| Barrels%: 9.0(1.9)| HR/FB%: 13%(4%)| xFIP: 3.76(0.03)| xSLG: 0.410(-0.002)
Lucas Giolito Giolito had a rough 2023 season. It was a especially rough 2nd half for Giolito, owning a 6.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP across 16 starts since July 1st, while allowing a whopping 25 HR's in that span. He has still flashed his upside during this stretch as he has struck out 9 or more batters in 4 of those starts, but he has also allowed 8 or more ER's in 3 of those outings. In the end Giolito finished with his 2nd consecutive season with an ERA above 4.80, which makes him hard to trust for fantasy purposes even if he has strikeout upside. - mgreenfeld | As a flyball pitcher who gives up a lot of homeruns, Giolito would fair well signing in a pitcher's ballpark. 2023 BABIP: 0.274(-0.066)| SwStr%: 12%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.36(-0.02)| Walk/9: 3.6(0.2)| Avg FB: 93.1(0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 12.2(0.0)| Zone Contact%: 85%(-1%)| HR Distance: 403ft(10)| Strand%: 0.73(0.02)| 95MPH+%: 41.6(2.6)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.4)| Elevation%: 18.5(5.9)| Barrels%: 11.0(3.5)| HR/FB%: 18%(3%)| xFIP: 4.45(-0.43)| xSLG: 0.445(-0.041)
Tyler Glasnow Glasnow finished the season at 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA and 162 strikeouts in 120 innings. Overall it was a great comeback season for Glasnow, who topped 100 innings for only the second time in his career after making just two starts last year due to injuries. While he's still never stayed healthy for an entire season, his elite ratios and ace-level production when he does take the mound make him the ultimate high-risk, high-reward fantasy player. He'd be a surefire All-Star and Cy Young candidate if he could just stay healthy, but who knows if or when that will ever happen. If you end up drafting him next year, make sure to have a backup plan. - tmaher | Major Positives include an insane 16.4 SwStr%, 96.4 average fastball, 51% GB rate and below league average 2.8 BB/9. 2023 BABIP: 0.294(0.063)| SwStr%: 16%(2%)| GB Rate: 0.51(0.16)| Walk/9: 2.8(0.1)| Avg FB: 96.4(-1.0)| FB/Chg Split: 4.2(-0.1)| Zone Contact%: 82%(-7%)| HR Distance: 404ft(1)| Strand%: 0.70(-0.30)| 95MPH+%: 44.6(-41.1)| Avg Velocity: 90(-10.0)| Elevation%: 5.8(-9.1)| Barrels%: 11.6(-9.8)| HR/FB%: 14%(0%)| xFIP: 2.75(-0.78)| xSLG: 0.392(0.043)
Cole Ragans Cole Ragans has shown the ability to miss bats (29% K) which is key given his occasional struggles with control (10% BB). This is why his xFIP (3.71) is higher than his traditional ERA (3.47). Ragans has also benefited from keeping the ball in the park (0.66 HR/9). He has also taken advantage of his home park being pitcher-friendly (3.06 ERA and 1.11 WHIP). Some people are going to try to say that Ragans will be a sleeper heading into 2024 drafts but his performance isn't going to allow him to fall in drafts. If anything, he is going to skyrocket up the draft board. - pdouble | Whether Regans takes that step into the top 20 will depend on his command. His stuff is already top 20, but his command has been an issue in the minors (5+ BB/9 in AA and AAA last season). 2023 BABIP: 0.275(-0.021)| SwStr%: 14%(3%)| GB Rate: 0.44(0.08)| Walk/9: 3.8(0.2)| Avg FB: 96.6(4.5)| FB/Chg Split: 9.9(-0.1)| Zone Contact%: 80%(-11%)| HR Distance: 399ft(9)| Strand%: 0.71(0.02)| 95MPH+%: 36.9(4.1)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.3)| Elevation%: 10.6(-7.6)| Barrels%: 6.4(-0.5)| HR/FB%: 8%(-4%)| xFIP: 3.71(0.24)| xSLG: 0.331(0.025)
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Justin Steele 2023 was nothing short of a breakout campaign for Steele, who finished with a 3.06 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 3.32 xFIP across 30 starts (171 IP). He's missed plenty of bats (12% swinging-strike rate) while limiting hard contact (36%) and slashing his walk rate in half from a season ago. - ahodge | Higher than average SwStr%, GB Rate, and lower than average Walk Rate are a fine recipe for success. 2023 BABIP: 0.317(0.000)| SwStr%: 12%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.49(-0.02)| Walk/9: 1.9(-1.9)| Avg FB: 91.8(-0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 4.2(0.0)| Zone Contact%: 88%(1%)| HR Distance: 403ft(-6)| Strand%: 0.73(0.00)| 95MPH+%: 36.6(2.9)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.7)| Elevation%: 9.3(1.8)| Barrels%: 5.4(1.5)| HR/FB%: 10%(1%)| xFIP: 3.32(0.26)| xSLG: 0.365(-0.007)
Ryan Pepiot A lot of people will look at Pepiot's 2023 season and say it's a fluke as his .189 BABIP against and 99% Strand rate are obviously not repeatable. His 2.14 ERA verses his 3.99 xFIP. What they won't recognize is that his 7.6:1 K/BB rate is of legend and controllable. His SwStr% of 12.2 is neatly above league average and as a flyball pitcher, his home ballpark works to his advantage. The former Top Prospect (#28) is going to be undervalued come draft day. 2023 BABIP: 0.189(-0.055)| SwStr%: 12%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.37(0.10)| Walk/9: 1.1(-5.6)| Avg FB: 94.0(0.0)| FB/Chg Split: 7.6(0.0)| Zone Contact%: 85%(5%)| HR Distance: 393ft(-13)| Strand%: 0.99(0.13)| 95MPH+%: 27.4(-13.5)| Avg Velocity: 87(-2.3)| Elevation%: 20.0(-4.2)| Barrels%: 8.8(-1.4)| HR/FB%: 14%(2%)| xFIP: 3.99(1.84)| xSLG: 0.380(0.016)
Kyle Hendricks After coming off of rough campaigns in both 2021 and 2022, Hendricks has surprised with something of a return to form in 2023, finishing with a 3.74 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 4.42 xFIP across 24 starts (137 IP). Sure, the K/9 remains down from the 7-8 range it was earlier in his career, but Hendricks has restored the BB/9 to the sub-2 range in which it sat in 2018-2020 while getting the hard-hit rate down to just 25%. While the improvement doesn't make him a fantasy ace - he never was - Hendricks is again a useful back-end option for fantasy who should help the ERA and WHIP categories. - ahodge 2023 BABIP: 0.283(0.001)| SwStr%: 9%(-1%)| GB Rate: 0.46(0.10)| Walk/9: 1.8(-0.8)| Avg FB: 87.7(1.0)| FB/Chg Split: 6.9(0.0)| Zone Contact%: 88%(3%)| HR Distance: 397ft(-6)| Strand%: 0.67(-0.07)| 95MPH+%: 31.5(-7.4)| Avg Velocity: 85(-2.3)| Elevation%: 11.2(-5.3)| Barrels%: 6.2(-3.7)| HR/FB%: 8%(-5%)| xFIP: 4.42(0.68)| xSLG: 0.413(0.017)
Brayan Bello After posting a 3.04 ERA in the first half of the season, Bello took a big step back in the 2nd half, finishing the 2nd half with a 5.25 ERA across 15 starts. Some regression for Bello was anticipated as he had a 3.96 xFIP in the first half and benefited from a .279 BABIP. Bello has an excellent 55.8% GB% which should help him remain a respectable starter going forward, but his mediocre strikeout rate (7.6 K/9) make him a fringe fantasy option heading into 2024. - mgreenfeld 2023 BABIP: 0.306(-0.098)| SwStr%: 11%(-1%)| GB Rate: 0.56(0.00)| Walk/9: 2.6(-1.7)| Avg FB: 95.2(-1.4)| FB/Chg Split: 8.9(-0.4)| Zone Contact%: 87%(3%)| HR Distance: 389ft(9)| Strand%: 0.76(0.08)| 95MPH+%: 44.3(6.8)| Avg Velocity: 89(1.5)| Elevation%: 4.9(-0.4)| Barrels%: 7.0(1.6)| HR/FB%: 17%(15%)| xFIP: 4.02(-0.22)| xSLG: 0.411(-0.046)
Tanner Houck Although he finished with a 5.01 ERA, his xFIP in 2023 was 4.07. Houck suffered from a low LOB-rate and suddenly-high HR/FB rate, nearly 10 percentage points higher than recent seasons. Houck's inconsistencies and injury battles have dirtied his once-intriguing fantasy prospects, but he is still only 27 years only with about a season-and-a-half's worth of innings under his belt. The door certainly isn't closed yet. - bkamerman 2023 BABIP: 0.297(0.009)| SwStr%: 13%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.53(0.02)| Walk/9: 3.5(0.2)| Avg FB: 93.6(-1.3)| FB/Chg Split: 93.6(0.1)| Zone Contact%: 84%(-4%)| HR Distance: 396ft(20)| Strand%: 0.68(-0.07)| 95MPH+%: 43.8(4.5)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.5)| Elevation%: 6.5(2.0)| Barrels%: 6.6(1.7)| HR/FB%: 16%(9%)| xFIP: 4.07(-0.94)| xSLG: 0.399(-0.020)
Tyler Anderson Anderson was a big disappointment for the Angels and fantasy managers alike last season after enjoying an All-Star season with the Dodgers in 2022, largely because his walk rate has more than doubled from 1.7 BB/9 to 4.1 BB/9. His hit rate is also the second-worst of his career and he's been generally too inconsistent to trust from a fantasy perspective this year. - tmaher 2023 BABIP: 0.301(0.045)| SwStr%: 13%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.31(-0.09)| Walk/9: 4.1(2.4)| Avg FB: 90.0(-0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 9.9(-0.1)| Zone Contact%: 82%(-4%)| HR Distance: 403ft(5)| Strand%: 0.67(-0.11)| 95MPH+%: 32.3(3.8)| Avg Velocity: 87(2.0)| Elevation%: 19.1(2.2)| Barrels%: 8.2(3.3)| HR/FB%: 10%(3%)| xFIP: 5.52(0.09)| xSLG: 0.434(-0.027)
Andrew Abbott Andrew Abbott (SP-CIN) really scuffled after the All-Star break, recording a 4.86 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 4.46 xFIP in 79 IP during that span after posting a 2.38 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 3 BB/9, and 4.44 xFIP in 41.2 IP before the break. To be sure, he benefitted from a lot of luck during the first half (particularly a .235 BABIP and 93% strand rate), so there's been some correction to the mean (.341 BABIP and 75% strand rate since the break). - ahodge 2023 BABIP: 0.302(0.302)| SwStr%: 11%(11%)| GB Rate: 0.29(0.29)| Walk/9: 3.6(3.6)| Avg FB: 92.8(92.8)| FB/Chg Split: 6.1(0.0)| Zone Contact%: 85%(85%)| HR Distance: 389ft(389)| Strand%: 0.80(0.80)| 95MPH+%: 42.5(42.5)| Avg Velocity: 91(91.2)| Elevation%: 21.6(21.6)| Barrels%: 9.2(9.2)| HR/FB%: 11%(11%)| xFIP: 4.56(0.69)| xSLG: 0.394(-0.037)
Andrew Heaney Andrew Heaney logged a 4.15 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 4.58 xFIP through 28 starts (147 IP), with opposing hitters logging an average 39% hard-hit rate against him. His command fell off last season with his excellent 2.4 BB/9 dropping off to 3.7 in 2023. On top of that his SwStr% fell to a league average 11%. 2023 BABIP: 0.302(0.011)| SwStr%: 11%(-6%)| GB Rate: 0.40(0.06)| Walk/9: 3.7(1.3)| Avg FB: 92.5(-0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 8.5(-0.2)| Zone Contact%: 85%(5%)| HR Distance: 399ft(-7)| Strand%: 0.77(-0.02)| 95MPH+%: 38.6(-9.1)| Avg Velocity: 90(-1.1)| Elevation%: 14.8(-3.0)| Barrels%: 10.2(-0.8)| HR/FB%: 13%(-5%)| xFIP: 4.58(0.43)| xSLG: 0.429(-0.012)
Nestor Cortes As expected there was a considerable regression in Cortes' stuff before a rotator cuff injury sidelined him for the season. The groundball rate deviated greatly and Cortes became an extreme flyball pitcher in 2023 with a 53% FB%. His stuff wasn't as sharp and his walk rate went from 2.3 to 2.8. With that was a swinging K rate that dipped from 11.1% to 10.4. How much of that was due to the shoulder? Expect a bounceback from the 4.97 ERA, but don't expect the 2.44 ERA from 2022. 2023 BABIP: 0.291(0.059)| SwStr%: 10%(-1%)| GB Rate: 0.26(-0.07)| Walk/9: 2.8(0.7)| Avg FB: 91.6(-0.2)| FB/Chg Split: 8.2(-0.3)| Zone Contact%: 83%(0%)| HR Distance: 384ft(-5)| Strand%: 0.69(-0.14)| 95MPH+%: 41.5(6.8)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.7)| Elevation%: 26.6(7.4)| Barrels%: 7.4(2.1)| HR/FB%: 11%(3%)| xFIP: 4.84(-0.13)| xSLG: 0.390(-0.054)
Aaron Ashby Ashby missed the 2023 season after straining his labrum. He returned to pitch some minor league games and is reportedly healthy. Here's what we said about him last year: Aaron Ashby 's first full season in the majors was a mixed bag, but there's still a ton to like here. The main issue Ashby has had is the fact that he's walking 10% of the batters, and that absolutely needs to change. There's a ton of good here though. He's running above average contact against skills along with a 75th percentile strikeout rate which is shown in his 118 strikeouts in 98.1 innings. The win-loss record obviously needs to improve as well in standard leagues, but in terms of evaluating him as an arm I'm not worried about it. Ashby does a solid job of avoiding hard-contact and getting whiffs, and I'll be targeting him heavily next year as we should get him at more of a discount than we did this season. - jsperry | Other than the promising ability to limit contact, we just love his 57% groundball rate, Ashby suffered because of a 20% HR/FB rate, which inflated his ERA (3.29 xFIP). 2022 BABIP: 0.324(0.051)| SwStr%: 12%(-1%)| Avg FB: 95.7(-0.9)| FB/Chg Split: 6.5(0.7)| HR Distance: 404ft(-13)| Launch Angle: 2.0| Strand%: 0.70(0.15)| HardHit%: 34.1(-1.7)| 95MPH+%: 34.1(-1.7)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.2)| Elevation%: 2.0(2.0)| Barrels%: 6.8(1.9)| HR/FB%: 20%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.57(-0.04)| xFIP: 3.29(-1.15)| xSLG: 0.358(-0.044)
Graham Ashcraft Ashcraft is often viewed as a pitcher that can't strike people out, but I don't believe that to be true. In this excellent 26 starts, I've noticed that he can either limit FB or he can strike people out: not both. He's primarily a 2-pitch guy (cutter, slider) with a few sinkers mixed in at this point, but I'm less inclined to think that this is all a mirage than many. I expect mid-rotation level performance from him. - sdombroske 2023 BABIP: 0.292(-0.022)| SwStr%: 10%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.48(-0.07)| Walk/9: 3.2(0.6)| Avg FB: 96.7(-0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 96.7(0.2)| Zone Contact%: 90%(-1%)| HR Distance: 394ft(4)| Strand%: 0.74(0.06)| 95MPH+%: 38.9(2.6)| Avg Velocity: 88(1.5)| Elevation%: 8.1(4.3)| Barrels%: 6.9(2.1)| HR/FB%: 17%(4%)| xFIP: 4.57(-0.18)| xSLG: 0.429(-0.016)
Chris Bassitt Bassitt hit the 200 IP mark for the first time in his career and finished with a 3.60 ERA, really close to the 3.57 he was projected for in the preseason. He had a slightly better K/9 (8.37) than projected. Bassitt's BB/9 of 266 was a bit higher than his projected 2.34. He also posted a WHIP of 1.18, almost dead on his 1.17 projected WHIP. In 2022 Bassitt had a 3.42 ERA, 8.27 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, and 1.14 WHIP. He has had slight regressions in most categories since 2021 and his FIP in 2023 was 4.28, so he will likely end up posting numbers slightly worse in 2024, but has put himself in workhorse territory, even though he will be 35 when the next season begins. - paul00 | Bassitt is one of those pitchers who has control over the quality of contact. On the surface he defeats the conventional indicators such as BB/9, groundball rates, and Swinging Strike rate are all average, yet he consistently records weak contact against hitters with a 4 year average velo against of only 87.5 and a HardHit% that ranges between 33 to 35%....well below league average of about 40%. 2023 BABIP: 0.274(-0.008)| SwStr%: 9%(-1%)| GB Rate: 0.42(-0.07)| Walk/9: 2.7(0.2)| Avg FB: 92.0(-0.9)| FB/Chg Split: 7.8(0.0)| Zone Contact%: 87%(4%)| HR Distance: 397ft(4)| Strand%: 0.77(-0.01)| 95MPH+%: 35.3(2.5)| Avg Velocity: 87(1.8)| Elevation%: 13.2(2.4)| Barrels%: 8.3(1.7)| HR/FB%: 13%(2%)| xFIP: 4.21(0.61)| xSLG: 0.405(-0.001)
Trevor Bauer Bauer pitched lights out in Japan last season and is looking to return to MLB in 2024....which is still in question. In Bauer's last MLB season he posted some wicked numbers in his limited 107 IP: 8 W| 137 k| 2.59 ERA| 1.00 WHIP. That said his 220 BABIP on above average HardHIt% is not sustainable. What is sustainable in a low 1.20ish WHIP and high 3s ERA. The other concern is how he respond to not pitching in the MLB in almost 3 years.
Jordan Lyles Below average stuff but has made a living on excellent control 2.3 BB/9. The problem is that he's striking out less batters than ever and is relying on good luck (BABIP), which depressed his WHIP last season, but didn't help his ERA. Steer clear. | 2023 BABIP: 0.255(-0.058)| SwStr%: 9%(-1%)| GB Rate: 0.34(-0.07)| Walk/9: 2.3(-0.3)| Avg FB: 91.1(-0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 5.6(-0.3)| Zone Contact%: 91%(2%)| HR Distance: 402ft(7)| Strand%: 0.56(-0.18)| 95MPH+%: 35.5(-3.3)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.4)| Elevation%: 19.8(4.5)| Barrels%: 9.9(-0.5)| HR/FB%: 14%(3%)| xFIP: 5.34(-0.94)| xSLG: 0.481(-0.022)
Tanner Bibee Bibee thus wrapped up a strong rookie campaign in which he recorded a 2.98 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 4.24 xFIP across 142 IP. His swinging-strike rate was a pretty average 11%, but he limited contact in general (76%) as well as kept hard contact to a modest 30% clip. The overall walk rate isn't great, but it's encouraging to see that he cut that to 2.3 in his 72 IP since the All-Star break. Bibee most likely won't blossom into a fantasy ace since he seems unlikely to pile up the punchouts, but his profile indicates mid-rotation value for fantasy. - ahodge 2023 BABIP: 0.286(0.286)| SwStr%: 11%(11%)| GB Rate: 0.37(0.37)| Walk/9: 2.9(2.9)| Avg FB: 94.9(94.9)| FB/Chg Split: 11.1(0.1)| Zone Contact%: 83%(83%)| HR Distance: 380ft(380)| Strand%: 0.80(0.80)| 95MPH+%: 38.1(38.1)| Avg Velocity: 89(88.9)| Elevation%: 16.6(16.6)| Barrels%: 6.1(6.1)| HR/FB%: 8%(8%)| xFIP: 4.22(1.24)| xSLG: 0.376(0.020)
Paul Blackburn Blackburn mixes in at least five different pitches, allowing his off-speed options to thrive. Opposing hitters are only hitting .156 against his curveball as he has shown the ability to thrive when he can locate the pitch. When he can't, he needs to rely more on his heater, which is much less effective. It's always a bit of a gamble streaming a pitcher like Blackburn who has limited opportunities to win on a bad team and can get blown up even by poor offenses, but in a roto league he has shown an ability to post decent numbers. - bkamerman 2023 BABIP: 0.350(0.060)| SwStr%: 10%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.41(-0.06)| Walk/9: 3.7(1.3)| Avg FB: 91.9(0.2)| FB/Chg Split: 5.9(0.0)| Zone Contact%: 87%(0%)| HR Distance: 404ft(-1)| Strand%: 0.74(0.00)| 95MPH+%: 33.2(-7.3)| Avg Velocity: 87(-1.0)| Elevation%: 12.2(3.2)| Barrels%: 5.7(-1.3)| HR/FB%: 10%(-4%)| xFIP: 4.33(-0.09)| xSLG: 0.406(-0.037)
Kyle Bradish Bradish finished 2023 with a 12-7 W/L along with a 2.83 ERA (3.53 xFIP) and 1.04 WHIP. He has good control (6% BB) and just enough swing and miss (23% K) to make it work. Bradish also gets a good amount of ground balls (49% GB) which helps limit the damage done by the opposing offense. Bradish has success due to his breaking balls (SL and CU) which he throws 48% of the time. He has also been helped out by his home park (2.39 ERA) which has been very pitcher-friendly since they changed the walls. Bradish is unlikely to maintain this level of success long-term (3.77 xERA), but he is certainly promising. - pdouble 2023 BABIP: 0.270(-0.041)| SwStr%: 11%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.49(0.04)| Walk/9: 2.3(-1.2)| Avg FB: 94.8(0.1)| FB/Chg Split: 3.9(-0.2)| Zone Contact%: 89%(1%)| HR Distance: 401ft(2)| Strand%: 0.79(0.09)| 95MPH+%: 42.0(1.0)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.1)| Elevation%: 6.6(-2.1)| Barrels%: 6.9(-0.9)| HR/FB%: 10%(-5%)| xFIP: 3.53(0.70)| xSLG: 0.388(0.057)
Hunter Brown Brown's final line of 5.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP doesn't reflect his true underlying skill set. Consider that his xFIP was 3.52. Brown has improved his (77%) Contact% and 10.6 SwStr%. His underlying tools are still there including his solid 52% GB rate. - paul00 2023 BABIP: 0.330(0.036)| SwStr%: 11%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.52(-0.16)| Walk/9: 3.2(0.1)| Avg FB: 95.8(-0.8)| FB/Chg Split: 95.8(0.3)| Zone Contact%: 88%(-2%)| HR Distance: 391ft(391)| Strand%: 0.69(-0.22)| 95MPH+%: 44.4(-2.7)| Avg Velocity: 91(-2.4)| Elevation%: 6.9(4.0)| Barrels%: 10.9(5.0)| HR/FB%: 21%(21%)| xFIP: 3.52(-1.57)| xSLG: 0.414(-0.043)
Bryan Woo Bryan Woo was excellent all season, posting just a 32.9% hard-hit rate. He has a 25.9% strikeout rate with a 3.2% BB/9 as well. He's showing that he can be a force in the Mariners rotation for the long term. - jsperry 2023 BABIP: 0.273(0.273)| SwStr%: 12%(12%)| GB Rate: 0.40(0.40)| Walk/9: 3.2(3.2)| Avg FB: 95.1(95.1)| FB/Chg Split: 5.5(0.4)| Zone Contact%: 82%(82%)| HR Distance: 390ft(390)| Strand%: 0.73(0.73)| 95MPH+%: 33.8(33.8)| Avg Velocity: 87(87.4)| Elevation%: 13.9(13.9)| Barrels%: 6.3(6.3)| HR/FB%: 13%(13%)| xFIP: 4.26(0.05)| xSLG: 0.348(-0.046)
Luis Castillo Castillo had kind of a strange year in total, showing the best control and best chase rate of his career, but also showing a velocity drop of almost 1 mph and a much increased launch angle. The LA increase becomes problematic with the career-worst EV allowed, causing the 2nd worst HR/9 of his career. I think Castillo is an excellent pitcher all told, and I don't think there's any doubt that he is one of the top-12 SP in baseball, but he went 3rd behind Strider and Cole in our recent 2024 mock draft, and I think that's pretty optimistic. I have him 9th personally (and am considering dropping him out of the top 10), and the GB and EV deterioration do have me a bit concerned....before Monday's game he was posting the highest xFIP of his career. - sdombroske 2023 BABIP: 0.267(-0.008)| SwStr%: 15%(2%)| GB Rate: 0.39(-0.08)| Walk/9: 2.6(-0.1)| Avg FB: 96.2(-0.9)| FB/Chg Split: 7.8(0.0)| Zone Contact%: 81%(-2%)| HR Distance: 401ft(-1)| Strand%: 0.77(0.02)| 95MPH+%: 41.8(4.2)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.0)| Elevation%: 15.9(5.5)| Barrels%: 9.4(2.5)| HR/FB%: 13%(3%)| xFIP: 3.81(0.47)| xSLG: 0.408(0.011)
Clarke Schmidt Clarke Schmidt (SP-NYY) finished with a 4.64 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 4.36 xFIP across 32 starts (159 IP) on the campaign. Opposing hitters have mustered a subpar 32% hard-hit rate against him while recording a 78% contact rate against him. Schmidt's swinging-strike rate isn't impressive at 10%, as he's a sinker (24%)-cutter (28%) pitcher who doesn't possess overwhelming stuff. - ahodge 2023 BABIP: 0.313(0.040)| SwStr%: 10%(-2%)| GB Rate: 0.44(0.02)| Walk/9: 2.6(-1.0)| Avg FB: 93.5(-1.4)| FB/Chg Split: 4.0(0.3)| Zone Contact%: 89%(2%)| HR Distance: 383ft(15)| Strand%: 0.70(-0.05)| 95MPH+%: 41.0(3.6)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.1)| Elevation%: 13.8(0.3)| Barrels%: 7.6(-2.1)| HR/FB%: 13%(5%)| xFIP: 4.36(-0.28)| xSLG: 0.418(-0.038)
Alex Cobb Cobb gets hit a pretty harsh 44% HardHit% clip, but he lives on his command (2.2 BB%) and heavy GB rates (58%). His 2024 campaign will depend on his ability to recover from a hip impingement situation. 2023 BABIP: 0.318(-0.018)| SwStr%: 9%(-2%)| GB Rate: 0.58(-0.04)| Walk/9: 2.2(-0.4)| Avg FB: 94.6(-0.2)| FB/Chg Split: 5.0(-0.1)| Zone Contact%: 91%(3%)| HR Distance: 397ft(3)| Strand%: 0.76(0.08)| 95MPH+%: 43.4(2.3)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.6)| Elevation%: 1.3(-0.5)| Barrels%: 7.0(3.3)| HR/FB%: 18%(8%)| xFIP: 3.51(-0.35)| xSLG: 0.444(0.008)
Gerrit Cole Cole claimed another Cy Young season in 2023, finishing with a 15-4 mark with an AL-best 2.63 ERA -- his second career ERA title. He also led the AL in starts (33), innings (209, hit rate (6.8) and WHIP (0.98). While it wasn't quite as good as his outstanding 2019 campaign, he was browned with the top crown in the AL. He is one of the safest fantasy pitchers in the game and is an obvious fantasy ace. The Yankees ace will once again be a hot commodity on draft day in 2024. - tmaher | That said there has been some degradation in his stuff as his fastball lost 1 MPH and his swingK% dropped from 14.3 to 11.7. It was all masked by his 2.63 ERA, but his xFIP was 3.60 and xERA 3.48. His 2nd half BABIP of only .234 had a lot to do with the Cy Young run. Still elite, but there are warning signs. 2023 BABIP: 0.261(-0.007)| SwStr%: 12%(-3%)| GB Rate: 0.40(-0.03)| Walk/9: 2.1(-0.2)| Avg FB: 96.7(-1.1)| FB/Chg Split: 7.6(0.4)| Zone Contact%: 85%(2%)| HR Distance: 397ft(-1)| Strand%: 0.80(0.02)| 95MPH+%: 39.2(-1.0)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.2)| Elevation%: 14.8(2.2)| Barrels%: 7.5(-2.0)| HR/FB%: 9%(-7%)| xFIP: 3.60(0.97)| xSLG: 0.379(0.057)
Chris Paddack Coming back from TJS, pitched 5 innings at the end of the year to complete his recovery and impressed with an average fastball of 95.6....which is faster than we've seen in years from him. Paddock has an above average SwStr% against and has always had a superior BB/9 (1.8%), he can deliver some magic in 2024 if he can maintain the fastball and become a groundball pitcher again. 2023 BABIP: 0.417(0.060)| SwStr%: 16%(6%)| GB Rate: 0.31(-0.13)| Walk/9: 1.8(1.0)| Avg FB: 95.6(2.6)| FB/Chg Split: 10.6(0.0)| Zone Contact%: 73%(-10%)| HR Distance: 405ft(405)| Strand%: 0.71(0.07)| 95MPH+%: 38.5(-2.9)| Avg Velocity: 86(-3.2)| Elevation%: 10.6(0.5)| Barrels%: 7.7(2.0)| HR/FB%: 25%(25%)| xFIP: 1.98(-3.42)| xSLG: 0.405(-0.071)
Kyle Freeland Consistent 1.40ish WHIP and 4-5ish ERA with little strikeout upside over his last 4 years...Colorado...pass. 2023 BABIP: 0.309(-0.009)| SwStr%: 8%(-2%)| GB Rate: 0.40(-0.02)| Walk/9: 2.4(-0.3)| Avg FB: 88.8(-1.2)| FB/Chg Split: 4.5(-0.1)| Zone Contact%: 92%(4%)| HR Distance: 410ft(-2)| Strand%: 0.71(0.00)| 95MPH+%: 43.5(1.1)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.4)| Elevation%: 14.3(1.6)| Barrels%: 8.7(-1.0)| HR/FB%: 14%(4%)| xFIP: 5.13(0.10)| xSLG: 0.506(-0.005)
