Looking For Regression
- Pitchers Edition
Result stats like ERA will rarely correlate exactly to analytics measurements like xERA, FIP, and xFIP. When the difference is wide during a season, that can indicate that there will be a regression the following season. The change can be positive or negative, depending on which way the difference goes. The differences can explain some of what you see in the 2024 Draft Advisory Software projections compared to results from 2023. Here are some pitchers that could likely see some regression.
Looking Up
Aaron Bummer- RP- ATL- Bummer was a key acquisition for the Braves this offseason. He posted a 6.79 ERA, so that might seem strange. However, Bummer had an xERA of 3.53 and a K/9 of 12.03 in 58.1 IP. He made 61 appearances and 9 of his 44 ERs came in just 2 of them, which impacted his ERA. Bummer will have value in leagues that count holds. He will not be in a closer role but should be in high-leverage situations and improve on his 15 holds with the White Sox in 2023.
Joe Ryan- P- MIN- Ryan went 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA and 197 Ks for the Twins last year. He had a 10.97 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9 showing good strikeout power and excellent control. Ryan's SwStr% was 13.8%. It's not surprising that his xERA was 3.53. Ryan's projected ERA for this season is 3.85 with 205 Ks.
Lance Lynn- P- STL- Lynn had an overall ERA of 5.73, although it was better after a trade to the Dodgers, where he posted a 4.36 in 11 starts. He still struck out over a batter per inning (9.36 K/9) while walking 3.38 batters per 9 innings. Lynn had an uncharacteristic 2.16 HR/9, which is why his xFIP was over a run lower than his ERA at 4.50. That 4.50 ERA is what he is projected for in 2024 along with 177 Ks and 12 wins.
Yu Darvish- P- SD- His 4.56 ERA didn't reflect how Darvish pitched in 2023. He had a 3.74 xERA after posting a 9.31 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9. Hitters posted a .319 BABIP against him, subjecting Darvish to bad luck. He is expected to see his ERA drop to 3.80 and WHIP to 1.23 from 1.30. Darvish is projected to ring up 183 Ks in 171 IP.
Hunter Brown- P- HOU- Brown posted a 5.09 ERA in 155.2 IP in his first full MLB season. He was prone to the long ball in the second half, with a 2.48 HR/9. For all of 2023 Brown had a 3.52 xFIP. He had a 10.29 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9. Brown's minor league track record is one of keeping the ball in the park, so the late season homer frequency is probably an outlier. He is projected for a 2024 ERA of 3.69 with 195 Ks in 171 IPs.
Kutter Crawford- P- BOS- Crawford made a couple of starts at the beginning of 2023, then spent a month and a half in the bullpen before returning to the rotation for the rest of the season. His 4.04 WRA was above his 3.30 xERA and 3.83 FIP. Giving up a 1.18 HR/9, which was Crawford's lowest since AA in 2019, left him with a 4.32 xFIP. He did have a 9.39 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9. If Crawford can repeat his lower HR allowed ratio he can beat his 4.20 projected ERA. He is still projected to strike out 160 in 158 IPs.
Aaron Nola- P- PHI- Nola rejoined the Philles after testing free agency and will be a key member of their rotation. This is despite a 4.46 ERA in 2023. In part that was due to an unusual number of homers allowed, 32 in the 193.2 IP of his 32 starts. That's what put Nola's xFIP at 3.63. His xERA was 3.77. Nola has made 32 starts in each of the last 3 seasons and made at least 33 starts in each of the two seasons before COVID. His K/9 dropped a little but was still above a batter per inning at 9.39. Nola still has excellent control with a 2.09 BB/9. He has a track record of durability and is projected to have a 3.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and strike out 200 batters in 197 IPs in 2024.
James Paxton- P- LAD- Paxton returned in May 2023 after missing all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery and suffering a hamstring strain last year in Spring Training. His season was also cut short due to knee inflammation. Paxton is projected to be healthy for the start of the 2024 season. He ended up with a 4.50 ERA in 19 starts last season with a 9.47 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9. Paxton's xERA was only 3.82 and xFIP 3.98. He is projected to have a 4.14 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 134 Ks in 134 IPs in 2024.
Pablo Lopez- P- MIN- Lopez posted an 11-8 record with a 3.66 ERA, 10.86 K/9, and 2.23 BB/9 for the Twins last season. Those were all good, but his 3.00 xERA, 3.33 FIP, and 3.28 xFIP showed he performed even better than his ERA indicated. For 2024, Lopez is projected at a 3.49 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 13 wins, and 216s in 188 IPs.
Looking at a Fall
J.P. France- P- HOU- France posted a solid 3.83 ERA in 136.1 IP in his rookie season of 2023. Beyond that, his numbers didn't look so good. France had a 6.67 K/9 and 9.1% SwStr%. His xERA of 5.00 and xFIP of 4.80 were almost or more than a run above his ERA. France is projected to see less time on the mound in 2024 (82 IPS) and post a 4.75 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and strike out 59 batters.
Josiah Gray- P- WAS- Gray's ERA dropped from 5.02 in 2022 to 3.91 in 2023. The rest of his body of work doesn't show the same progress. Gray's K/9 dropped from 9.32 while his BB/9 rose from 4.00 to 4.53. He had a 5.03 xERA, 4.93 FIP, and 5.12 xFIP. Gray's projections are not showing much in the way of rebound. He is projected to have a 4.54 ERA and WHIP while still striking out fewer than a batter per inning at 162 Ks in 175 IPs. He'll be a key part of the Washington rotation by default.
Michael Wacha- P- KC- Wacha made a solid contribution to the ill-fated Padres in 2023. He went 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA, his best mark since 2018. Wacha has moved on to KC, but won't be enjoying the same success. He is projected to post a 4.37 ERA, win 9 games and strike out 135 in 148 IPs. That would reflect more of what Wacha showed in his 4.30 xERA and 4.47 xFIP last season. He had solid control at a 2.88 BB/9 but also failed to strike out a batter per inning, with a K/9 of 8.31.
Charlie Morton- P- ATL- Morton won 14 games for the Braves last season and posted a 3.64 ERA with a 10.08 K/9. He did have control issues, with a BB/9 of 4.57. Morton's xERA was 4.70 and xFIP was 4.27. For 2024 he is still projected for a solid, but higher, 3.83 and 192 Ks in 168 IPs. If Morton has the same control issues, though, he could pitch himself into trouble, given the new emphasis on steals in today's game.
Shane Bieber- P- CLE- While Bieber had a 3.80 ERA, his xERA was 4.77. He had a solid BB/9 at 2.39 but his K/9 dropped to 7.52, far from the 14.20 he posted in the COVID season of 2020 or even the 12.48 in 2021. Bieber's velocity is still down about 3 mph from his Cy Young days. His EV, maxEV, Barrel%, and HardHit% were all higher than 2022. Bieber's SwStr% dropped from 13.8% to 10.5%. Elbow injuries are nasty things and have a way of popping up again. His ERA for 2024 is projected to be pretty much unchanged at 3.79, his Ks are still project at lower than one per IP.
Patrick Corbin- P- WAS- Corbin was a big part of the Nationals' 2019 championship and one of their last ties to that squad. He will head their rotation as a veteran presence and not as much for current or recent performance. Last season Corbin posted a 5.20 ERA but it could have been worse. He had a 6.16 xERA and 5.28 FIP. Corbin's xFIP was at 4.76 but that's because he gave up homers at a rate of 1.65/9. That wasn't an anomaly, though, since he had a 1.59 HR/9 in 2022 and 1.94 in 2021, so 2023 was no outlier. Although Corbin is only 34 his decline has been evidenced since 2020. For this season he is projected to post a 5.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and strike out 117 in 162 IP.
