Adley Rutschman - The former number one overall pick and mega prospect posted an excellent sophomore season, being the only catcher with 80 runs and 80 RBI, leading all qualified catchers in BB% (13.4) and xwOBA (.373), and having the second lowest K%(14.7). While Rutschman is the runaway leading catcher and made improvements in the contact department, reducing his Whiff rate by 2.3%, the main concern was the lack of step forward in batted ball quality from 2022 to 2023. Rutschman's EV, Max EV, Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, and Flyball% all remained virtually the same. He did a good job of cutting his Popup rate in half (8.3% to 4.7%), which actually both lowered his average Launch (15.6 to 12.6) and slightly increased his Sweet-Spot rate (35.6 to 37.0), so there was a slightly better ability to lessen mishits, but fairly marginal. Don't get me wrong - he got better, but it was just minimal. On the bright side, Rutschman is still young, plays in a great lineup, and will only be entering his age 26 season, so it's not out of the question for him to still take a step forward. It's a gut feeling, but I do think he gets better. Given his youth, pedigree, and the fact that he was still the best catcher last season, I don't think there is another option with enough upside to compete for his throne, and love him at his 37 ADP this year.
Spencer Torkelson - Spencer Torkelson hasn't quite lived up to the hype that accompanies a number one overall pick, but he took a huge step forward in 2023. He's the perfect post-hype sleeper with an affordable 113 ADP and 1B14 ranking. Torkelson grossly underperformed his .352 xwOBA, and was actually the 16th unluckiest hitter in the bigs last year by wOBA-xwOBA. Torkelson also does an excellent job getting the ball in the air and producing quality contact, as his 34.5 GB% was the LOWEST amongst ALL qualified 1B last year and his 9.1 Barrels/PA% was third highest. He will also be playing with a significantly improved lineup. Torkelson's weak 2022 and rough early 2023 has tempered a lot of the hype but not long ago was he considered a mega-prospect, and he's still only 24 years old.
Gavin Lux - Lux missed all of 2023 after tearing his ACL and MCL right about a year ago, but the former top prospect is yet another post-hype sleeper I need to mention. Lux took the prospect world by storm when he slugged .602 against the upper minors in 2019. It took him a while to establish himself in the bigs, but posted a career high .745 OPS across 471 trips to the plate in 2022. The underlying batted ball numbers are near average. The exit velo's, ability to find the barrel, and expected slash lines don't inspire a true "sleeper," and they really aren't worth typing into this blurb. However, the old saying in scouting is that power comes last, and Lux posted big power numbers in the minors, so the potential is there. I don't believe that his lack of power in the bigs comes from a genuine lack of power, he just hasn't learned to get to it yet. Lux spent last offseason working at Driveline, and from my personal look at Dodger spring training earlier this month, the explosiveness in the swing is still there. As of right now, Lux has 2B and OF eligibility, but he is rumored to be slated as the starting SS for LA, giving him huge positional flexibility. At 280 ADP overall, he's a free lottery ticket in the back end of drafts.
Tarik Skubal - This one is really easy. He's currently being drafted as SP 16, and I'll throw a bunch of stats at you to show why that's criminally low. Skubal is 85th Percentile or better in: Barrel%, BB%, K%, Chase%, Whiff%, GB%, xBA, and xERA. He ranked second amongst qualified pitchers with a .236 xwOBA. He posted the lowest HR/FB%, Launch Angle and EV of his career. Even if he regresses, I'll take the gamble on the guy who was unhittable across 15 starts last year, especially at his ADP.
Max Fried - Much like Skubal, Fried is another starter I love that can be drafted at a slight discount right now. Fried battled injuries last season and only made 14 starts, but was excellent in those opportunities. He posted his highest punchout rate (25.7%), second lowest walk rate (5.8%), and second lowest barrel rate (3.8%) of his career since he became a full-time player. Even though he missed the summer, Fried was still able to maintain his stuff, as the fastball and curveball had the exact same velocity (94.0 and 74.2) in 2022 and 2023. The shapes were equally as sharp, if not better, as Fried's curveball posted an absurd .132 xwOBA against. He is the 13th starter going off the board right now, and I love him at this ADP.
Marcell Ozuna - Ozuna is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, posting highs in HR% (6.8) and FB% (32.4), while ranking 7th in the bigs in xwOBA (.400) and 4th in Barrel% (16.6). However, Ozuna has a really interesting batted ball profile that is worth diving into. Ozuna posted near-average clips for all four of FB%, GB%, LD%, and IFF%, and was directionally only slightly favoring the pullside and opposite field. Imagine a near exact average batted ball distribution but with a strong touch of exit velocity. This can create a lot of variation, especially in the homerun department, and we've seen that throughout his career. It's only a small concern for me, as Ozuna still makes plenty of quality contact, only has somewhat below average contact skills, and still plays in an excellent lineup. The offensive output is still being slept on. Ozuna may only have DH eligibility, but it's tough to find this kind of performer around his 139 ADP.
Nolan Jones - Jones was a solid prospect that led the minors in walks in 2019 with 96 free trips to first base. At the same time, Jones has only punched out below a 23% clip once in his pro career, that was in Low-A in 2017. This is simply how it's going to be - a true outcome guy who doesn't chase nearly at all, but struggles with in-zone contact. Luckily for fantasy managers, Jones was shipped to one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball, and he can run. I think a repeat of the 20-20 season is super reasonable, especially since he just did it in only 106 games. That being said, I'm labeling Jones as a risky player, as his .249 xBA vastly differs from the .297 average he posted. He had the second largest gap between his BA and xBA in the bigs last year. He's also playing in a questionable lineup with a lot of young, unproven talent and underperforming veterans. Jones is a high-risk/high-reward play this year.
Corey Seager - Corey Seager's presence on the fantasy landscape is no secret, but recent news about his injury has caused an overreaction. Seager's ADP has fallen to the 2/3 turn, placing him at SS4. This overreaction is completely unjustified and is an awesome buy-low opportunity, as Seager's injury is not considered serious, and he is on-track to play on Opening Day. The main draw with Seager is how much better he is compared to alternative options at the SS position. Seager led all SS in average, slugging, wOBA, and xwOBA, but did it by a considerable margin. His xSLG was .079 (!!) points better than the next, and his xwOBA was .043 (!!) points better than the next. Seager's value is further diminished due to the optics of not having triple digit R and RBI totals, but that is just due to playing only 119 games. Over his last 162 games, Seager has 119 RBI's, 121 R's, and 43 HR's. This is on par with players going in the first round, who don't all have the same positional advantage. I'll smash the draft button next to his name every time at the end of the 2nd.
Shohei Ohtani - No secret on this one. Ohtani is a premium fantasy asset thanks to top of the scale power plus an ability to run. However, this year, I'm actually slightly more bullish on Ohtani and think we could see his best season yet. Ohtani played for a very mediocre lineup last year highlighted by a half season of Mike Trout, Brandon Drury, and a mix-and-match of a dozen other players. Outside of Ohtani, only three other Angel hitters played more than 100 games last season. Ohtani now moves into a dangerous Dodgers lineup that will compete for the best in the bigs in 2024. This is huge for his R/RBI potential. With him also not pitching this season, there is a strong chance we see him hit in more than the 135 games he did last season. There is a really good chance his counting stats are even better in 2024.
Triston Casas - The Red Sox slugger was abysmal in his small sample 2022, but broke out in 2023 and was second on the team in homers with 24. Casas has always been known as a hitter. He was drafted in the first round in 2018, even though he was a prep first baseman with not so great body, a testament to how much scouts believed in the hit tool. He posted an OPS over .830 in all three of his full minor league seasons, and debuted in the bigs in only his age 22 season. The most important note for Casas is his improved ability to impact the fastball, which landed at a .413 xwOBA this year, compared to his .319 xwOBA against breaking balls. Hitting the fastball is foundational to being able to stick in the big leagues. He also made huge improvements in GB% (56.6% to 36.4%) and LD% (13.2% to 25.6%). While Casas won't hit in the best lineup this year, he has his youth, pedigree, and upward projection that make him a continued 2024 breakout candidate.
Gavin Williams - Cleveland is known to be excellent at developing pitching, and they've done it yet again. Williams was solid in his rookie campaign, posting a 4.21 xERA and 23.5 K% across 16 starts. He has a three pitch mix with two quality breaking balls (curveball, slider) that both got at least 31% Whiffs last season. The fastball didn't perform as well, but he throws it at a high clip (55.3%) and he throws it hard (95.7, 79th Percentile) with 7.5 feet of extension (99th percentile). At 186 ADP overall, I love the upside.
Colt Keith - Keith is unheralded in the fantasy redraft world right now, but I love him as a late round dart throw in deeper leagues. He is the 25th third baseman being taken off the board right now, making him effectively free. The crux of my argument here is that Keith has positional eligibility at 2B and 3B, and will certainly be in the starting lineup after signing a 6 year, $28M deal. Keith tore up the upper minors last season, slashing .306/.380/.552, and did so while managing walks and strikeouts (11.6 BB%, 19.3 K% in AAA). A lot of projections have Kieth hitting 13-19 home runs across about 120 games, but the game total is on the lighter side for me. Keith has little competition for a wide-open 3B spot in the lineup that is obviously his. The Detroit lineup will be better this season, with Miguel Cabrera now being replaced, a healthy Riley Greene, and an emerging Spencer Torkelson. Keith will most likely put together a season similar to the other guys being drafted around him (Ryan McMahon, Jeimer Candelario), but I think there is upside for more.
Francisco Lindor - We know that prospect fatigue is a thing, but I think Lindor is starting to prove that superstar fatigue is also now a thing. Lindor just put together his first 30HR/30SB season of his career, and did so while also setting career highs in FB% and Barrel %, and remaining virtually the same in pretty much every other metric we use to analyze performance. Right now he is being drafted at 29 ADP overall, so I'll easily take the one of the most consistent players in fantasy in the third round.
Cole Ragans - Ragans broke out after being shipped to the Royals in the deal for Aroldis Chapman. Texas used him as a reliever, but the starter-needy Royals thrusted him into the rotation, and he thrived. Across 12 starts in Kansas City, Ragans posted an eye-opening 31.1 K% and 1.1 HR%, while managing walks (9.4%) and getting some groundballs (45%). While the fastball got average results, Ragans has real weapons for secondaries. Both the changeup and slider posted EV's below 87, Whiffs above 34%, and xwOBA below .250. He also throws a cutter and curveball, which still performed well last year and help round out a deep enough arsenal to continue starting. I'm a bit mixed on the general Royals outlook for 2023, but Ragans has stuff, manageable strike throwing, and manageable contact. I'm not going to be leaving many drafts without him.
Jeffrey Springs - You might be wondering why I'm writing about a guy with a 380 ADP, but hear me out. Springs was superb in three starts in 2023 and 25 starts in 2022. He underwent Tommy John early last season, but has a solid chance of returning this summer if all goes as planned. This is a draft-to-IL pick, obviously. Springs is a chase and whiff machine, ranking above the 75th percentile in both categories in 2022, and posting an absurd 43.6 K% in 16 innings in 2023. His 26.2 / 5.6 K/BB% in 2022 is probably more representative of what he will post in a full season of starting, but the underlying ability to throw strikes and limit contact is impressive. If you're patient enough to wait until he recovers and have the extra IL space, this is the arm I would want to stash.
