Happy Opening Day! Baseball is back!
Around the League
Kodai Senga (shoulder) was able to start a throwing program on Wednesday which included a light catch. His current timeline is a 6-week ramp-up period so we will get more news along the way on how his shoulder has responded. SS Matt McClain had surgery on Tuesday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. The Reds have said they hope to have him back this year at some point but can't be counted on even as an injury stash. Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand figure to be the biggest beneficiaries. OF Randal Grichuk is going to start the year on the injured list while he recovers from offseason ankle surgery. OF Dylan Carlson was placed on the 10-day IL on Wednesday with a left AC joint sprain. SS Jon Berti was traded to the New York Yankees on Wednesday. He should be a utility bat that offers occasional speed.
Last Year's Bums
Mike Trout-Angels-OF
Mike Trout only played in 82 games last year and hit .263 with 18 HR, 54 R, 44 RBI, and 2 SB. He's played in 100+ just once since 2019. He also hasn't stolen double-digit bases since 2019. Trout has also seen deterioration in his batting average because his strikeout rate jumped from the low 20s to 28-29% in the past three seasons. He has turned into a traditional power hitter, not the five-category stud that we used to know. The Angels lineup also took a significant hit with the loss of Shohei Ohtani which is going to have an impact on Trout's counting stats. The good news is that Trout's price during drafts finally fell to the point where he could return value with his new power first profile. Throughout a full season, he would project for 35-40 HR with 180+ R+RBI's with a .260 AVG. It's not the Trout from the past but it is still a valuable fantasy profile.
Tim Anderson-Marlins-SS
Tim Anderson signed a deal with the Marlins to be their starting shortstop. He is coming off his worst season in the majors (.245 AVG, 1 HR, 52 R, 25 RBI, and 13 SB). The drop in power was not just poor luck because he posted a career-low 2.9% Barrels. His aggressive approach (5% BB and 39% O-swing) finally caught up to him both in the power department and batting average. In the previous four seasons, he hit .300 or better with similar plate skills but the difference was that he hit the ball much harder. There were injuries and personal matters that he dealt with last year so he hasn't fallen completely off the cliff. The move to Miami was good that he found a starting job but playing half his games in Miami is not going to help his power numbers return. Anderson could still return a profit given how late he went in drafts in deeper mixed leagues if he bounces back with a .270-.280 AVG with 5-10 HR and 15-20 SB.
Jorge Polanco-Mariners-2B
Jorge Polanco was traded to the Mariners during the offseason. He is coming off an injury-plagued 2023 season in which he only played 80 games. Polanco hit .255 with 14 HR, 38 R, 48 RBI, and 4 SB. The core skills were still there (11% BB, 26% K, 14% Barrels, and 41% Hardhit). Despite playing middle infield and not being the biggest guy he has a profile suited for power. He hits the ball hard (14% Barrels and 41% Hardhit), in the air (47% FB), and to the pull side (42% Pull). Seattle is not the best park for power but Polanco's profile plays just about anywhere and his fantasy value is tied to his games played. If Polanco can stay healthy and on the field, he should bounce back nicely this year which is the bet that the Mariners took in trading for him.
Carlos Correa-Twins-SS
Carlos Correa is coming off the worst season of his career (.230 AVG, 18 HR, 60 R, 65 RBI, and 0 SB). He dealt with plantar fasciitis for most of the season. This is important to note because the underlying skills point towards a bounce back. He showed good plate skills (10% BB and 23% K) and continued to hit the ball hard (10% Barrels and 46% Hardhit). Correa hasn't stolen a base since 2019 so that isn't to be expected but he should see his BABIP regress (.272 vs. career .312) which will help his average bounce back. A healthy Correa isn't going to be the superstar we all thought after his debut but still has the potential to be a solid fantasy contributor this year.
Alek Thomas-Diamondbacks-OF
The Diamondbacks current roster construction is set up for them to give Alek Thomas another shot at an everyday role. He came into 2023 looking to take the next step after 113 GP in 2022 in which he hit .231 with 8 HR/4 SB. Thomas struggled for the first couple of months of 2023 before being sent back to Triple-A. He returned to hit .273 in July, .266 in August, before slumping again in September (.187 AVG). On the year, he hit .230 with 9 HR, 51 R, 39 RBI, and 9 SB in 402 PA. He should see his batting average come up to the .260 range because he has the ability to make contact (21% K), hit the ball hard (41% Hardhit), and on the ground (56% GB). The extreme ground ball rate isn't good news for his power numbers but he should at least reach double-digits and has the speed to steal double-digit bases.
Sophomore Slump?
Gunnar Henderson-Orioles-SS
Gunnar Henderson started the season slow with a .189 AVG in April and then a .213 AVG in May but from that point forward he turned into a superstar. His overall line was a .255 AVG with 28 HR, 100 R, 82 RBI, and 10 SB. He has good plate skills (9% BB and 26% K) and hits the ball hard (11% Barrels and 52% Hardhit). He also has room for growth in his batting average because he doesn't chase many pitches out of the zone (29% O-Swing) and his swinging strike rate is league-average. The Orioles lineup is going to continue to improve so there should not be a drop-off in his counting stats as well. The arrow is pointed up for the 22-year-old.
Anthony Volpe-Yankees-SS
Anthony Volpe made his much-anticipated debut in 2023. He finished the year hitting .209 with 21 HR, 62 R, 60 RBI, and 24 SB. Despite the meager batting average, Volpe was able to show promise and give hope for an even better sophomore season. His batting average was drug down by a .259 BABIP which given his speed is low. His strikeout rate isn't great (28% K) but it projects more for a .230-.240 AVG, not a .209. Volpe showed that he can hit the ball hard (9% Barrel and 43% Hardhit). He has also talked about how his swing was too steep last year which led to his batting average issues. He is working on a flatter swing which should lead to more consistent contact which is good news because he was able to steal 24 bases with a .283 OBP. Volpe is a flawed player but the fantasy upside is tremendous given his power/speed profile and potential for positive regression in his batting average.
Triston Casas-Red Sox-1B
Triston Casas is looking to build off his strong rookie season in which he hit .263 with 24 HR, 66 R, 65 RBI, and 0 SB in 132 GP. He struggled in the first half (.225 AVG, 9 HR, 34 R, 27 RBI, and 0 SB) but turned it on in the second half (.317 AVG with 15 HR, 32 R, 38 RBI, and 0 SB). The biggest differences for Casas in the second half were an improved approach (14% BB and 24% K) and more hard contact (39% Hard). He is a modern power hitter. Casas has a high walk rate (14% BB) and hits the ball hard (13% Barrels) which is going to keep his power numbers up but caps his batting average in the .250-.260 range. Expecting Casas to repeat his second-half numbers over the course of a full season is fool's gold but a repeat of his overall line with better counting stats would be a better projection.
Jordan Walker-Cardinals-OF
Jordan Walker started the 2023 season with much prospect hype that quickly wore off. He hasn't been talked about much despite holding his own as a 21-year-old in the major leagues with just 29 GP at Triple-A. Walker ended the year hitting .276 with 16 HR, 51 R, 51 RBI, and 7 SB in 117 GP. He showed the ability to make contact (22% K) and take a walk (8% BB). The disappointment in the fantasy community came from his lack of power which wasn't unexpected given his minor league profile. He has the potential to grow into 30 HR power given his maxEV (114.3 mph) and ability to make contact but it is most likely going to take time to make that adjustment. A 20 HR/10 SB season with a .260+ AVG would be a strong sophomore season. Most would view it as a disappointment again but there is still an elite ceiling for Walker longterm.
Edouard Julien-Twins-2B
Edouard Julien hit .263 with 16 HR, 60 R, 37 RBI, and 3 SB in 408 PA of his rookie season. Julien has a very unique profile. He rarely chases out of the zone (17% O-swing) and walks a ton (16% BB) but also strikes out a lot (31% K). He hits the ball hard (13% Barrels and 45% Hardhit), but he has an extreme groundball rate (50% GB) which caps his power numbers. He was able to hit 16 HR last year mainly due to a 31% HR/FB which is very likely to regress. Julien is a prime candidate to take a step back this year in the power and average department. A projection of .240-.250 with 15 HR/8 SB is realistic and puts more along the lines of a league-average type of player.
Rookies to Watch
Jared Jones-Pirates-SP
Jared Jones made the Pirates Opening Day roster after having a great spring (16.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 BB, and 15 K). Jones made 15 starts at Triple-A last year and posted a 4.72 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He showed the ability to miss bats (28% K) but struggled with control (13% BB). Jones has flashed plus stuff with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball that he works at the top of the zone and a plus slider that can be his go-to strikeout pitch. He is going to miss bats at the major league level but his overall success is going to be contingent on his control and the development of a third pitch. He needs to be rostered across the board because of his strikeout ability and environment (good pitchers park and weaker offensive division).
Colt Keith-Tigers-3B
The Tigers were able to lock up Colt Keith, one of their top prospects, prior to the start of the season. Keith hit .325 with 14 HR, 43 R, 50 RBI, and 2 SB in 59 GP at Double-A. Once promoted to Triple-A he hit .287 with 13 HR, 45 R, 51 RBI, and 1 SB in 67 GP. He showed good plate skills between the two levels last year (10.5 % BB and 21% K). Keith also showed the ability to hit the ball hard (40% Hardhit) which translated to 38 2B and 27 HR in 126 GP. The transition to the majors is going to have up and downs but Keith has the upside to be a four-category contributor if everything clicks. His home park puts a slight damper on his ceiling but regular playing time is going to be there.
Jackson Chourio-Brewers-OF
Jackson Chourio has made the Brewers Opening Day roster and is going to make his debut on Thursday, March 28. Chourio is one of the most exciting prospects given his massive ceiling. He hit .280 with 22 HR, 84 R, 89 RBI, and 43 SB in 122 GP at Double-A last year as a 19-year-old. He is going to play his first season in the majors as a 20-year-old which tells you how exciting he is. Chourio may experience issues with strikeouts but the Brewers will give him a long enough leash to make the necessary adjustments. He has true five-category potential with elite speed.
Wyatt Langford-Rangers-OF
Wyatt Langford this time last year was playing college baseball for the Florida Gators. This gives one an idea of how quickly he moved through the Rangers system and how much faith they have in him being a true difference maker. The Rangers are not a bad team trying to figure out how he fits into their future plans. They are a playoff-caliber team that has World Series aspirations and Langford figures to be a big part of that. He hit .405 with 4 HR, 7 R, 10 RBI, and 1 SB in 12 GP at Double-A. He then turned around and hit .365 with 6 HR this spring. It is hard to project him given the limited data in pro ball but he has five-category potential with power and speed being his best assets. The one category that he may not excel in right away is going to be average but that can be expected for rookies especially ones with limited pro experience.
Jackson Merrill-Padres-OF
Jackson Merrill made the major league club and started both games in Korea to open the year. He did bat ninth which is not great news for his fantasy value but at this point, he just needs regular at-bats to continue to develop. Merrill hit .280 with 10 HR, 50 R, 33 RBI, and 10 SB in 68 GP at Double-A and .273 with 5 HR, 26 R, 31 RBI, and 5 SB in 46 GP at Triple-A. He showed plus contact skills between both levels (12% K and 7.5% BB). However, he is unlikely to hit for power at least initially at the big league level. He has a slender frame and more of a line-drive approach that is going to allow him to make a lot of contact. His ceiling this year is probably 15 HR/15 SB with a .260 AVG which is not something to sneeze at but it also is not elite.
