These five hitters have some of the greatest discrepency between their Expected Slug (xSLG) and actual Slug (SLG) percentage. Why? Let's try to extrapalate.
Ben Rice C/1B NYY
Let the Rice burn...it cannot deter my love for...hard hit baseballs! He's Ben, very useful as a Catcher if you caught on to his positional availability in your league, but Rice is also cooking when it comes to potential slug discrepancy. His xSLG is .575 while his actual SLG is .476. StatCast loves his pop, 16.8% Barrel Rate and 55.6% Hard Hit Rate points to continued SLG. His average exit velocity stings at 94 MPH and the proof is in the pudding: at just over 400 PAs, Rice is creeping to 20 HR despite sporadic (but lately increasing) playing time. Get him while he's hot.
Willson Contreras C/1B STL
The lesser (since 2023) of the Contreras brothers (unless you're looking for the better heel), his sneaky slug is climbing the charts in late 2025. His xSLG of .523 points to a higher ceiling than his actual SLG of .443, supported by 14.4% Barrel Rate and the still-unproven average Bat Speed of mucho red at 76 MPH. He's hit 17 actual homers, kept the BA tight at .260 and a serviceable .345 OBP, all the floor you hoped for with Contreras the elder. If he's somehow lingering on the waiver wire, grab him for 1B help and hope he powers the Cardinals to an annoyingly successful September.
Jo Adell OF LAA
Post-post-post hype sleeper Jo Adell was completely asleep on 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft day. He was growing a beard, applying for jobs at shuttered Radio Shacks whilst Austin Meadows, Starlin Marte and outfielders worse than Jesse Winker went off the board. The counting stats: 28 HR, 78 RBI (sure, team-dependent) and, well, that's it. As far as Slug goes, Adell is at .482 but he is Expected to Slug at .563. Adell's Barrel Rate is 17% and there's that pesky Bat Speed at the 99th percentile! His walk rate, chase rate and Whiff Rate are all in the basement, but this is the year StatCast broke. Here's the fact: Adell is top 10 in Home Runs, so if you have him, enjoy the dingers and ignore the fingers pointing to the strikeouts, the expectations and the hype. Grab a cup a Jo.
Andrew Vaughn 1B MIL
Who is this guy? We know he was supposed to be a minor league player, according to the White Sock brain trust. The Brewers spun an unhappy Civale for him and Vaughn has been a Milwaukee miracle. He has an abnormally high Square Up Rate of 32% and a nice 14% Barrel Rate along with a nifty 92 MPH average Exit Velocity. His Expected Slug hovers just under .500 at .498 while his actual Slug sits at .424. Vaugn is probably already gone in your league, but if he hits the waiver wire, the underlying stats support his recent resurgence.
Gleyber Torres 2B DET
Statcast really likes this guy: they expect Slugging at .498 nearly a full point higher than his .400 actual Slug in 2025. His elite Chase Rate of 17.5% is helping to keep his bat afloat but hasn't led to eye-popping stats but one can do worse than a baker's dozen HR at 2B. The flood of red on his StatCast page could mean more counting stats for Torres in the torrid Tiger lineup, so keep an eye on the waiver wire if you have an injury at MI, especially in AL-Only.
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