Jay Bruce – Reds
Outfielder – Bats Left – 6-2, 206 –
4/3/1987
The
Red’s first round pick
in 2005 should be on everyone’s radar by now when considering
top offensive
prospects. Last year all Jay accomplished was the MVP of the MWL after
leading
the league in XBH and an appearance as the youngest player in the
leagues
All-Star game. One thing we don’t discuss often in Prospect
Central is age vs.
level. A player’s accomplishments at a given level have to be
looked at through
the prism of age and experience. Given the same numbers for that Jay
produced
last year, you give more weight to the 19 year-old in his first full
pro season
than you do the 21 year-old on his second tour of High-A..
Big,
strong and accomplished
as a hitter, Jay uses the entire field, with power. His swing is short
and
sweet. He can wait an extra beat to identify a pitch and still hit it
with
impressive power. That will only be augmented when his 6-2 frame fills
out with
15-20 more pounds of maturity. Jay is also is very adept at keeping his
hands
inside allowing him to cover the entire strike zone.
Of
course, the strikeouts
draw your eye and if you are interested in weaknesses, that would be
one.
Still, Jay makes contact, hits for average, and has held that skill
despite
moving up a level this year. Jay may be able to stick in centerfield
but the
hope is that he will fill out to a corner outfielder’s
stature and move to
right, taking advantage of his plus arm.
The
19 SBs from last season
should draw your eye as well, but again, if things go as planned the
speed
portion of Jay’s game may diminish before he makes the majors.
In
addition to his tools,
Jay is said to love to play and work on his game. The Reds were
deliberate with
him last year, keeping him in Low-A even when it was obvious he
overmatched the
league. This year he is starting at A+ and he is handling himself just
as well
there. It is unlikely the Reds will make him spend the year at this
level.
Expect him in AA by the ASB and keep close tabs on this developing
All-Star.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade - A
Seas Lvl AB
XBH HR
BB SO SB
AVG SLG OPS
2006 A 444
63 16 44
106 19 .291
.516 .870
2007 A+ 180
29 9 19
45 4 .344
.633 1.040
Andy Sonnanstine - Rays
Starter – Throws Left – 6-3, 190 – Age 23
Andy
Sonnanstine's calling card to this
point in his pro career has been command … and more command.
The 23-year-old
will get his fastball cranked to 91 on occasion, and his curveball is a
just little
flat and lacks bite, but Andy will change release points to give
batters different
looks. Andy had been a middle of the road prospect until he hooked up
with
pitching Coach Xavier Hernandez in Montgomery
last year. Hernandez tweaked and polished Andy’s changeup,
which brought his
command of that pitch up to the same level as his fastball and curve.
His new
grip also gave his change some much-needed bite, making that a much
more viable
pitch. In fact, his
change is now his
primary offering, and a more effective way to keep hitters off of
Andy’s
fastball.
But
back to his command … In
2005 over 181 IP in low–A, Andy struck out 178 against just
18 walks. He was
not fazed by the jump to AA last year where he fanned 141 against 30
walks in
171 IP. If you are scoring at home, that is 352 IP over two seasons and
he
threw 125 IP with Kent State in
his final season
there. The young man seems to have a rubber arm and can carry a heavy
work
load, another aspect of his game which is very desirable at the MLB
level.
So
far this year at AAA his
indicators have held against more experienced and sophisticated
hitters, which
bodes well for his ability to port some of that success to the majors.
Andy
is not my cup of team
in regards to pitching prospects. I usually tend towards the power-arm
types,
but Sonnanstine is posting numbers like a power pitcher and he remains
fairly
dominant at AAA so far, again, like a power pitcher. The questions is
whether
he will be able to maintain a certain level of dominance at the MLB
level or be
limited but his natural “stuff” to getting by as a
useful end of the rotation
starter.
His
baseball IQ is also very
high. Andy learns, adapts quickly, and can figure out some solutions on
his
own. The Rays are justifiably getting excited about him and a
“crafty” lefty is
always nice to have on you staff to keep hitters off balanced in a
series.
Andy
bears watching and he
could see some significant MLB action this summer.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade –
B-
Seas Lvl
W
L ERA IP
K/9 BB/9 HR/9
AVG WHIP
2006 AA 15
8 2.67 171.0
7.4 1.7 0.7
.224 1.00
2007 AAA 6
2 2.30 58.2
9.2 1.8 0.9
.202 0.92
Dellin Betances –
Yankees
Starter – Throws Right – 6-7, 185 –
3/23/1988
Dellin
Betances came into
the 2006 draft with a offer from Vanderbilt in his pocket and an asking
price
of $1M for any team that wanted to draft him last summer. There were no
takers
until the 8th round when the Yankees simply
needed to take a chance
and try to sign him. Betances got his $1M and the Yankees got a
first-round
talent for an 8th round pick.
Betances
cruises comfortably
in the high-90s, but his best pitch is his curve, which presents as
much as
12-15 mph separation from his fastball, making him very tough to read
and react
with. Dellin is also coming fast with his changeup, which shows good
downward
bite, but he needs to disguise his arm-action better. Dellin very young
and
overall his mechanics need to be cleaned up and simplified so he can
repeat his
delivery with more consistency.
Dellin
will spend the next
year of two installing his change and honing his mechanics.
He’s is a
terrific athlete and a smart competitor,
truly interested in getting better at what he does as quickly as
possible. He
is coachable, learns quickly and applies theory quite quickly.
It
is very early in the game
with this one but he seems fully capable of developing into an
Ace-level
pitcher. But we are looking a couple of years down the line in terms of
fantasy
impact.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade - A
Seas Lvl
W
L ERA IP
K/9 BB/9 HR/9
AVG WHIP
2006 R
0
1 1.16 23.1 10.4
2.7 0.4 .175
0.90
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