The
Astros finally figured out that Chris Burke was a problem. It just took
them a bit longer than the rest of us. That brings up to
Hunter Pence who was called up from AAA Round Rock late last week.
Hunter
was the Astros top pick in the 2004 draft but they didn’t
have a pick until the second round and the 64th pick overall.
Pence will not be starring in any baseball instructional video in the
near future. His stance and swing is unorthodox to put it politely. He
is a big guy but he does choke up on the bat although that
doesn’t seem to rob him of any power.
After
an injury-curtailed 2005, Hunter hit .283 in AAA Corpus Christi in 2006
with 28 HRs, 95 Rbi and 31 doubles in 523 ABs. He slugged .533 and
posted a .880 OPS while fanning 109 times (20.8%) and drawing 60 walks
(10.3%). In 85 AAA ABs at Round Rock, Hunter cut his K rate to
16.5% and lost a little ground in his BB rate
(8.6%) but he raised his SLG% to .588 on 3 HRs, and 10
doubles as part of his .341 AVG.
Hunter
has a strong grasp of the strike zone, keeps his hands inside the ball
and drives the ball to all fields. When he is on, he is hitting more
line drives than anything else.
Pence
is not textbook by any one’s standards and he is going to
have to conform a bit with his open stance and awkward swing so that he
can take full advantage of his outstanding bat speed and natural power.
Pence
also steals some bases although he’s not the fastest runner.
He put some work into the skill between 2005 and 2006 and stole 17,
upping his SB% to 81% after going 12- for -22 in 2005 (55%). He may
bring some of his speed game to the majors initially but that does not
figure to be a long-term part of his game.
Pence
can play CF for now, especially in comparison to Chris Burke but his
arm is limited and eventually he will have to move to left field. It
won’t matter though because Pence is likely a developing
middle-of-the-order hitter who will hit for power and steal a few
bases. He is the antithesis of the Red Sox J.D. Drew who is a walking
technique clinic, but Pence may end up a similar producer (albeit with
a click more power), annually contributing mid-20s in HRs with a .280
average and 80+ or so Rbi
Ryan
Braun – Brewers Third
base – Bats Right – 6-2, 200 – 11/17/1983
It
is hard to understand what the Brewers are waiting for. Ryan Braun was
the 5th overall pick in the 2005 draft, taken out of Miami and all he
has done since that day is rake.
The
23-year-old hit 10 homers and collected 31 XBH in just 193 ABs between
Rookie Ball and A ball in 2005. Last year between high-A and AA Ryan
had 22 HRs and 56 XBH in 557 ABs while exhibiting a good walk rate
(8.3%) in AA, and improving his K rate from 24% to 20% in the
jump from A+ to AA
This
year in AAA his numbers have gone nuts … Coming off a 6- for
-8 doubleheader on Wednesday with a HR, Braun boasts walk rate hovering
around 10.5%, a K rate under 10%, a .700+ SLG% and a 1.000+ OPS. Those
stats say that there’s very little left for Ryan to prove in
the minors.
Ryan
has exceptional bat speed along with plus power and solid contact
skills. His command of the strike zone has held though every level jump
and the jump to the majors should not be an exception. His zone command
should allow him to avoid prolonged slumps early on, and keep his head
above water as he adjusts to big league pitching. Ryan is also willing
to hit a pitch where it is thrown, working the entire field, which is
another skill that will help him as he finds his sea legs.
Ryan
conservatively projects as a .280/23/80 type of hitter and there is
some ceiling in those numbers. He is probably headed to the outfield
eventually but it is possible he has just enough defensive chops to
stick at third base for the Brewers. He is of course more valuable from
a fantasy standpoint if he can stick at third and that stick seems
possible.
Right
now, the only thing in his way at the MLB level is a combo of Craig
Counsell and Tony Graffanino. Now that J.J.Hardy and Rickie Weeks are
establishing their every day credentials, this is the only work still
available for these two. They can’t hold Brian off much
longer however. Even if things are going well right now for the
Brewers, the knocking is just too loud.
As
good a prospect as Ryan Braun is, he is probably not the
Brewers’ best prospect. That title would arguably fall to
21-year-old right-hander Yovani Gallardo.
The
Brewers second pick in 2004, Gallardo hosted his own coming out party
in 2006 when he struck out 188 batters in 155 IP between high-A and AA,
leading the minors. He only issued 51 walks against the total and while
both rates lowered when he jumped to AA he made gains as the summer
wore on with a 10.4 K rate in August against a 2.9 BB rate and a 0.87
WHIP.
Overall
at AA his dominance was evident in his .187 OBA with a .232 OSLG% and
.498 OOPS. And that with a pretty normal .267 BAHIP.
So
far this year at AAA, incredibly, Yovani has upped or leveled almost
all of those peripherals. It is almost scary when you take into account
his level jump with only 77.1 AA IP under his belt.
Yovani
leads with a low-to-mid 90s fastball with life. He throws a plus curve
and developing slider. He also has a Pedro-esque change that dives
aggressively. Gallardo is a heady pitcher who will give hitters a
couple of different looks, speeds and release points on those pitches
but his mechanics are clean, simple, and repeatable.
Gallardo
is just over the Brewers horizon and he should play a role in 2007,
which will probably be his last year in the minors. He has Ace
capabilities and you can reasonably say that is the expectation for
this young gun.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade A+
Seas
Lvl W L ERA
G IP K/9 BB/9
HR/9 AVG WHIP 2006
A+ 6 3 2.09
13 77.2 11.9 2.7 0.5
.198 0.99 2006
AA 5 2 1.63
13 77.1 9.9 3.3
0.2 .187 1.01 2007
AAA 3 1 2.70
5 30.0 12.6 2.4 0.3
.191 0.93
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