This week we will pick up some players from the Futures Game rosters that haven’t yet appeared in Prospect Central, and introduce you to a rising young star in the Red Sox System…

Jed Lowrie – Red Sox
Shortstop – Bats Both – 6-0, 185 – 4/17/1984

My pilgrimages to see Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz perform for the AA Portland Sea Dogs has afforded me the opportunity to watch Stanford product Jed Lowrie emerge as a viable MLB prospect.

Jed looks like the shortstop package that Theo Epstein thought he was getting with Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. Jed is a very disciplined hitter who has maintained fairly level K:BB ratio throughout his college and pro career. He takes walks, limits his strikeouts and he can hit for power.

His last two years at Stanford he reached the mid-teens in HR in less than 250 ABs but that power has not translated to his wood bats as of yet. His 22 doubles in AA and his .490 SLG% suggest that his pop is still there and I am wondering at his point if he has modified his hitting a bit to fill what he thinks his role should be.

Jed is above average defensively with a strong arm and he may be able to stick as a SS at the MLB level depending how his body fills out. Jed is also a gamer. He is one of those guys who always finds a way to do something the course of the game to further the cause of his team winning. He finds a way to get in the game story every night. About the only thing that he doesn’t do well right now is steal bases, despite good athletic speed.

But what Theo will (does?) love about him is that he doesn’t give away at bats. He works counts, makes pitchers work, and makes quality outs.  

If Jed can port his terrific plate discipline up the ladder to the show, and maintain his ability to play a quality shortstop and find some way to contribute to the cause every night, he will be a valuable MLB asset for the Red Sox (and if Lugo keeps going like he is, we are talking maybe next month!). If he can restore his power game on top of all of that, and fulfill his promise as one of the better overall college hitters in the country in 2004, he will become a major fantasy asset as well.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B+ for now.
 

Seas Lvl   AB XBH  HR  SB   AVG   OBP   SLG    BB%     K%
2006 A+   374  30   3   2  .262  .355  .374  12.6%  17.4%
2007 AA   245  32   4   4  .302  .416  .490  16.4%  17.6%

Carlos Carrasco – Phillies
Starter – Throws Right – 6-3, 190 – 3/3/1997 

This Venezuelan exports is the Phillies’ top prospect according to Baseball America, with good reason. After a failed attempt to force feed him into low-A as an 18-year old in 2005 Carlos took root in 2006 going 12-6 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 159.1 IP setting him up for an appearance in the 2006 Futures Game. 

Now 20 years old, the right-hander is rocketing through the Phillies system. He throws a 90+ mph fastball that cruises a little under 92 but what makes that fastball effective is some squirrelly life. It plays much faster than its velocity. Carlos can reach back for a 94 every now and again, but at that point, his fastball straightens out a little, leaving him with minimal gains. He’s listed at the same height and weight of Clay Buchholz and is a bit younger so we expect Carlos to full out a bit as well, hopefully adding an effective foot or two to his fastball. If that happens Carlos will inch towards elite starter prospect status.

Carrasco’s fastball is enhanced by its life and a plus change that Carlos commands well. It is already an advanced change, although he still tips it at times. That gives him two strong building blocks as a starter.  Regular readers know that you cannot start in the big leagues with two pitches and Carrasco’s third pitch is in the pipeline, his curve ball.

There is promise there. Carlos can really pull the chute on his curve, throwing it in the mid-to-low 70’s while keeping some downward bite. It is hard to tell however whether he is throwing his curve different speeds purposefully, or if he is simply erratic in his delivery. He thinks more of his curve than is warranted at times but that fact that he likes to throw it so much has speeded its development.

In general, he still has not nailed down his simple mechanics and repeatability is often a problem, both from a performance standpoint, and the desire to disguise his pitches with similar deliveries. He also shows distress on the mound, which contributes to his consistency issues. His pitch routines change when he is struggling. 

His recent promotion to AA will provide a good litmus test for Carlos as we see how he has progressed in the areas of consistency, command, and that all-important third pitch. His A+ numbers were fine but his 6.8 K rate suppresses his hype level a bit. If Carlos can fill out his body and develop that extra foot or two in his fastball and polish up his overall game, he may develop low-#1 starter potential. Right now, he looks like a very good #3 or average #2. He is only 20 however, so stay tuned.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B+ 

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP
2006 A   12  6  2.26 159.1  9.0  3.7  0.3  .186  1.05
2007 A+   6  2  2.84  69.2  6.9  2.8  1.0  .200  1.02
2007 AA   2  0  2.45  11.0  8.2  4.1  0.0  .184  1.09
 

Wladimir Balentien – Mariners
Outfielder – Bats Right – 6-2, 190 – 7/2/1984

This Curacao native would have looked very much at home in the Red Sox farm system in the 1970s … and 1980s .. and  yes … the 1990s. See if this sounds familiar … light tower power and 144 strikeouts in 444 ABs.

That was last year in AA for Balentien who hit 22 HRs and added 23 doubles in that same span.  He walked at 13.6% clip, which is good of course, but there is a point where a walk rate reflects the fear of opposing pitchers more than the plate discipline of the hitter. His 31.5% K rate … I’ll wait while that sinks in … Ready? … His 31.5% K rate is a much better indicator of what was going on … and it jumps off the page at you.

Still, the nearly-23-year-old slugger has made tremendous strides in 2007 in AAA. He has cut his K rate to a respectable 21.8%, while his more legitimate walk rate remains healthy at 11.3%. He has raised his AA average nearly 100 points to .322 in AAA and it hasn’t sapped his power in the least.  In fact his .581 SLG% represents a 150 point increase. 

Yikes.

This is a surprise.

Wlad (pronounced like the more common “Vlad”) has had maturation issues and has let his anger get the best of him at times in the past, but he has been playing in the M’s organization since he was 16 and he may be finding his feet. It is almost impossible to overestimate how far he has had to come as a pro. He was a heavy kid with a long swing that couldn’t locate a curve ball with a Sherpa 24 short months ago, and now he is a legitimate prospect. 

His power is intriguing and now that his peripherals are within reasonable norms, Wlad presents a very high ceiling. His 2007 season against AAA pitching has been extremely encouraging so far. The vital question remains however. Is he closer to Tim Salmon, Gorman Thomas or Wily Mo Pena?

I need a little more time to figure that one out.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B-

Seas Lvl   AB XBH  HR  SB   AVG   OBP   SLG    BB%     K%
2006 AA   444  46  22  14  .230  .335  .435  13.6%  31.5%
2007 AAA  298  38  19  13  .322  .399  .581  11.3%  21.8%