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A Closer Look - August 16, 2007

Lou Blasi It has been a very quiet week at the back end of baseball’s bullpens.
 
There was movement in Oakland last night however as Huston Street recorded his first save since coming off the DL last month.  Alan Embree had been doing a very good job in Streets absence and continued to hold the job longer than we expect after Huston’s return from an ulnar nerve injury.
 
Last night however Embree gave up two runs in the 8th to let the White Sox pull to within one run of the A’s at 3-2 setting up Street for a perfect ninth to close out his 10th save of the year, his first since May 6th.
 
In 29.2 IP this season, Huston is fanning 10.9/9 while walking 2.73. Opponents are hitting just .185 off him, helped a little by his favorable .274 BHIP% (still, his career rate is .280).
 
That K rate is actually up from his fine rookie season where he fanned 82. while walking 2.99. Huston does not throw a ton of GBs (0.96 career) but he keeps the ball in the park (0.4/9 career) and punches people out.
 
He seems healthy. He has the closers skill set. Street should resume his place among the above average closer options.
 
Dave Trembley’s handling of the end of the Orioles game with the Yankees on Wednesday pretty much spells out his mind set. Handed a 3-0 game, Danys Baez gave up hit to the first two batters he faced before recording a strikeout. That left lefty Bobby Abreu as the tying run at the plate. That prompted Trembley to go to lefty Jamie Walker. He got Abreu on a GO to 1B but Walker then gave up a 3-run HR to right handed hitting Shelly Duncan. In other words, Trembley out managed himself. By the way Baez was tagged with two runs as a result.
 
This tells us that while Baez is still the primary closer, Walker will be used in a lot of situations where a left hander is called for … whether it’s called for or not.
 
Baez has a career 0.85 HR rate while Walker’s is 1.27.  And while Baez has a 9.22 ERA in 13.2 IP vs. LHH this year allowing 1.9 HR/9 this year, last year he had a 3.00 ERA vs. LHH over 27 IP, allowing 0.6 HR/9 (in 2005 he had a 3.29 ERA vs. LHH in 34 IP, allowing 0.7 HR/9).
 
Walker this year has a 3.27 ERA vs. LHH allowing 0.8 HR/9. Last year he had a 3.32 ERA vs. LHH in 21.2 IP allowing 1.2 HR/9. In 2005 he had a 3.71 ERA vs. LHH in 26.2 IP allowing 0.6 HR/9
 
Walker has been more effective when we talk OBA vs. LHH but we are probably talking less than 100 batters each season. The point is that there is little evidence that Trembley was significantly better off changing to Walker despite the lefty-lefty matchup. True Bobby Abreu is hitting just .217 vs. LHP this year in 120 Abs but he is not incapable vs. lefties. Last year he hit .293 off of lefties and in ’05 he hit .275. And with one out there was a very good possibility that Shelly Duncan was going to get a shot even if Walker got Abreu out, which he did.
 
Duncan is hitting .353 vs. lefties in his first 17 MLB ABs against them with an .882 SLG% and a 1.303 OPS. He has 6 hits vs. LHP and 50% of them have been HRs.
 
Trembley could have seen it coming, and he probably over managed the situation.
 
Meanwhile Mo Rivera took the loss in this game giving up 3 runs in the 10th inning on three hits including an Aubrey Huff homerun. Mo has now allowed 5 runs in his last 3.1 IP on 9 hits, 0 walks and 2 Ks.
 
He was asked the question last night and denies any arm issues. One of the great closers of our time, Mo’s indicators are still solid. He is fanning 9.1/9 while walking a career-low 0.87. His HR rate is 0.6/9 this year, a little higher than his 0.4 career rate but still pretty spiffy. Opponents are hitting .262 off him which is high (.220 career) but he’s suffering from an unfavorable .339 BHIP% this year, much higher than his .270 last year, .254 ’05, and his .279 career BHIP%.
 
Mo has converted 19 straight save opps, his numbers look gook. No need for anyone to panic here.
 
Brian Fuentes return from the DL on Wednesday going two outs and allowing a hit and a walk while striking out 2.
 
Manny Corpas owners need not be concerned at this point. He has closed out 9 straight save opps and he is punching out hitters (7.5/9) and throwing GBs (2.28). That GB ratio is a lot higher than his GB rate in 2006 (1.32). He can throw GBs but it seems unlikely he can sustain that rate. Corpas might nag you with a walk or two (2.8/9) but his numbers are good.
 
Manny is being helped by a favorable BHIP% (.268) which is holding his OBA down (.221), as well as a favorable strand percentage (84.2%) which accounts in part for his 2.24 ERA. We do not have enough history to really project where those indicators are going to settle when they correct. For now, know that Manny is maximizing his skill set with some help from those two columns. I do not how much worse things could get, but it is hard to imagine his performance level rising from here.
 
    
 

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