Hi
all … I am traveling to Yankee Stadium for today’s
Red
Sox/Yankees tilt so this morning’s Closer Look was produced
last night. Make
sure to check your Daily E-mail Update from Insiderbaseball.com this
morning for
any last minute bullpen maneuvers from last night’s action. Once
again this week there is not much going on at the tail
end of many MLB bullpens.
In TexasJoaquin
Benoit, a clear
closer
candidate, pitched a perfect 9th in Tuesday
to collect his second
save of the year. We have expected the Rangers to include Benoit as the
right-handed side of as closing tandem. Joaquin
has held opponents to a .225 OBA with a level .307
BHIP% and struck out 9.9/9 in 69.2 IP. He has also reigned in his walks
quite
nicely with a 2.5/9 BB rate. His 80.4% strand percentage is highly
favorable
but his indicators are closer-worthy and he has upped his GB/FB to a
nearly-level .99.
Left-hander
C.J.
Wilson has
grasped the primary closer role and he has pitched well in
August with a .179 OBA and a 2.38 ERA in 11.1 IP over 10 appearances.
Overall
C.J. has a .182 OBA this year, fueled by a .237
BHIP% which is much better than his career BHIP% of .295. He also holds
a
favorable strand% at 79.0%, nearly 10% higher than his career 69.6%.
Where he excels though is throwing GB which
is is doing at 2:1 ratio against FBs. That rate is level with his
career norms,
as is his 8.5 BB rate. Given the favorable numbers in his BHIP% and
strand%, as
well as his 4.2/9 BB rate I said a few weeks ago that he was playing
with the
house’s money. I still believe that, but there has not been a
correction as of
yet, so the Rangers haven’t been compelled to introduce
Benoit into the mix
more.
The
Rangers had an off day on Monday but Wilson had thrown
42 pitches over the weekend
and this looks like a situational save.
It
was a similar situation for different reason in the Jays
pen on Tuesday as Casey
Janssen was
called in to clean up a blown save opp by Jeremy
Accardo.
Accardo
has been 25- for 29 in save opps since wrestling
primary closer duties for himself in the wake on B.J. Ryan’s
injury. Despite
his rough outing on Tuesday, Jeremy has been solid in August with a
1.69 ERA in
11 Apps spanning 10.2 IP. He has given up 8 hits and 3 walks this month
(a 1.03
WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, .211 OBA) while striking out 6 (5.0/ K/9). That
diminished K rate, down from 8.1/9 overall this year
and 7.0 career should get our attention but aside from the pressure of
closing
Jeremy is within his workload limits unless this is accumulated wear
from 119
appearances over the last two season. Jeremy
has been helped by a favorable 80.7% strand
percentage. His is BHIP% is also favorable at .281 but that K rate sag
concerns
me more. Since the ASB Jeremy has fanned 5.4/9 in 20 games and 19.2 IP.
That is
down from 9.6/9 prior to the break. His OBA is .211 both before and
after the
ASB and his ERA is actually down from 2.80 to 1.83 post, but still
…
Before
we turn it over this morning a quick
overview of MLB bullpens to date
…
The
best bullpens in baseball entering Wednesday based on ERA are 1) Red
Sox 2.92, 2) Padres
3.05, 3) Blue Jays 3.31, 4) Rangers 3.41, and 5) Twins 3.55
A
dominant performance by the Red Sox so far … And
the worst … 1) Rays 6.25 – Ouch, 2) Orioles 5.85,
3)
White Sox 5.42 – seems worse, 4) Reds 5.06, and Tigers 4.61
– a scary post
season prospect for the Bengals, if they make it, but the return of
Zumaya
should help.
Here
are the best in terms of blown saves (with the
least blown saves: T1) Cards 7 , T1) Red Sox
7, 3) Twins 8, 4) Rangers 9, 5) Indians and Angels 10
The
worst: 1) Reds 23 (gulp), 2) Nationals and Rockies 22, 3-5+)
Orioles, Padres, Marlins and Astros 20.
In
terms of OBA,
here are the best: 1) Boston .227, 2) Toronto .230, 3)
Dodgers
.236, 4) Angels .237, 5) Padres .241
And
worst: 1) Rays 3.08, 2) White Sox .281 (The Red Sox were
just in Chicago.
I repeat, things seem worse in their bullpen, much worse), 3) Reds
.280, 4)
Orioles .279, 5) Astros .276
WHIP …
the best:
1) Dodgers 1.21, 2) Jays 1.21, 3) Red Sox 1.22, 4) Padres 1.26, 5)
Cardinals
1.26
And
worst: 1) Rays 1.76, 2) Orioles 1.60, 3) White Sox 1.60,
4) Phillies 1.57, 5) Reds 1.53.
These
numbers should help you in those close calls while you
are hand picking spot starts in September. Generally, the Rays, Reds,
Astros,
White Sox, and Orioles starters get no support from their bullpen.
Meanwhile
a Red Sox, Padre, Blue Jay, Ranger, Angel or
Dodger starter will get some help after they leave the game.
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