A Closer Look August 30, 2007

Lou Blasi Hi all … I am traveling to Yankee Stadium for today’s Red Sox/Yankees tilt so this morning’s Closer Look was produced last night. Make sure to check your Daily E-mail Update from Insiderbaseball.com this morning for any last minute bullpen maneuvers from last night’s action.
 
Once again this week there is not much going on at the tail end of many MLB bullpens.
 
In Texas Joaquin Benoit, a clear closer candidate, pitched a perfect 9th in Tuesday to collect his second save of the year. We have expected the Rangers to include Benoit as the right-handed side of as closing tandem.
 
Joaquin has held opponents to a .225 OBA with a level .307 BHIP% and struck out 9.9/9 in 69.2 IP. He has also reigned in his walks quite nicely with a 2.5/9 BB rate. His 80.4% strand percentage is highly favorable but his indicators are closer-worthy and he has upped his GB/FB to a nearly-level .99.
 
Left-hander C.J. Wilson has grasped the primary closer role and he has pitched well in August with a .179 OBA and a 2.38 ERA in 11.1 IP over 10 appearances.
 
Overall C.J. has a .182 OBA this year, fueled by a .237 BHIP% which is much better than his career BHIP% of .295. He also holds a favorable strand% at 79.0%, nearly 10% higher than his career 69.6%.  Where he excels though is throwing GB which is is doing at 2:1 ratio against FBs. That rate is level with his career norms, as is his 8.5 BB rate. Given the favorable numbers in his BHIP% and strand%, as well as his 4.2/9 BB rate I said a few weeks ago that he was playing with the house’s money. I still believe that, but there has not been a correction as of yet, so the Rangers haven’t been compelled to introduce Benoit into the mix more.
 
The Rangers had an off day on Monday but Wilson had thrown 42 pitches over the weekend and this looks like a situational save.
 
It was a similar situation for different reason in the Jays pen on Tuesday as Casey Janssen was called in to clean up a blown save opp by Jeremy Accardo.
 
Accardo has been 25- for 29 in save opps since wrestling primary closer duties for himself in the wake on B.J. Ryan’s injury. Despite his rough outing on Tuesday, Jeremy has been solid in August with a 1.69 ERA in 11 Apps spanning 10.2 IP. He has given up 8 hits and 3 walks this month (a 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, .211 OBA) while striking out 6 (5.0/ K/9).
 
That diminished K rate, down from 8.1/9 overall this year and 7.0 career should get our attention but aside from the pressure of closing Jeremy is within his workload limits unless this is accumulated wear from 119 appearances over the last two season.
 
Jeremy has been helped by a favorable 80.7% strand percentage. His is BHIP% is also favorable at .281 but that K rate sag concerns me more. Since the ASB Jeremy has fanned 5.4/9 in 20 games and 19.2 IP. That is down from 9.6/9 prior to the break. His OBA is .211 both before and after the ASB and his ERA is actually down from 2.80 to 1.83 post, but still …
 
Before we turn it over this morning a quick overview of MLB bullpens to date …
 
The best bullpens in baseball entering Wednesday based on ERA are 1) Red Sox 2.92, 2) Padres 3.05, 3) Blue Jays 3.31, 4) Rangers 3.41, and 5) Twins 3.55
 
A dominant performance by the Red Sox so far …
 
And the worst … 1) Rays 6.25 – Ouch, 2) Orioles 5.85, 3) White Sox 5.42 – seems worse, 4) Reds 5.06, and Tigers 4.61 – a scary post season prospect for the Bengals, if they make it, but the return of Zumaya should help.
 
Here are the best in terms of blown saves (with the least blown saves: T1) Cards 7 , T1) Red Sox 7, 3) Twins 8, 4) Rangers 9, 5) Indians and Angels 10
 
The worst: 1) Reds 23 (gulp), 2) Nationals and Rockies 22, 3-5+) Orioles, Padres, Marlins and Astros 20.
 
In terms of OBA, here are the best: 1) Boston .227, 2) Toronto .230, 3) Dodgers .236, 4) Angels .237, 5) Padres .241
 
And worst: 1) Rays 3.08, 2) White Sox .281 (The Red Sox were just in Chicago. I repeat, things seem worse in their bullpen, much worse), 3) Reds .280, 4) Orioles .279, 5) Astros .276
 
WHIP … the best: 1) Dodgers 1.21, 2) Jays 1.21, 3) Red Sox 1.22, 4) Padres 1.26, 5) Cardinals 1.26
 
And worst: 1) Rays 1.76, 2) Orioles 1.60, 3) White Sox 1.60, 4) Phillies 1.57, 5) Reds 1.53.
 
These numbers should help you in those close calls while you are hand picking spot starts in September. Generally, the Rays, Reds, Astros, White Sox, and Orioles starters get no support from their bullpen.
 
Meanwhile a Red Sox, Padre, Blue Jay, Ranger, Angel or Dodger starter will get some help after they leave the game.       
 

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