A Closer Look - September 25, 2007

Lou Blasi I thought we’d mix up this week’s schedule a bit. If you are still playing fantasy baseball this morning, you are likely playing for a championship and trust me, everything counts (more on that later in the week).
 
Normally we look at the closers on Thursdays, but this week I am going to do that today to give you two extra days to use any info that may be of use to you.
 
The big bullpen news this week comes out of Texas where C.J. Wilson seems to have resumed the closers role after a rough run by Joaquin Benoit in which Benoit blew 2- for -3 save opps. 
 
Wilson becomes the best bet for save opps the rest of the way, but in the long term, manager Ron Washington said this week that he felt the team needs a veteran presence at the end of the bullpen, indicating that he’s not confident that some combination of Benoit and/or Wilson is not what he wants to be looking at next summer. That also may be an indication that the club does not believe Akinori Otsuka is a very viable option for next year either. At the very least it means they are not sure whether Otsuka is part of their plans.
 
Yesterday Wes Littleton (3-2-2, 4.47) collected his second save of the season against the Angels working a perfect 9th in a 8-7 win. This appears to be situational with both Benoit and Wilson having worked 3 of the last 4 days, but it muddies the rest of the week. Littleton’s other save was perhaps the cheapest in fantasy baseball history as he collected a 3-inning save in the Rangers’ 30-3 win on August 22nd.
 
The Yankees on the other hand may be looking a potential closing candidate in Joba Chamberlain. With Mo Rivera as yet unsigned beyond this season, it is easy to envision such a scenario. Still, I’m not buying it. The Yankees will throw money at their closing slot, whether that means extending Mo or not. Beyond that, Joba has much more value to the Yankees as a starter going forward and it seems unlikely they would devalue him with a role change. Joe Torre suggested yesterday that this was a possibility although he is the only one in the Yankees brass publicly admitting the possibility is on the radar.
 
All of that having been said however, it is hard to ignore that we said all of the same things about the Red Sox and Jonathan Papelbon. It needs to be noted however that in each of the last two winters, the Sox spent much of the offseason working on the assumption that they would have a closer that was not Papelbon.
 
Meanwhile the Yankees have suspended their infamous Joba Rules for the duration, setting up Chamberlain to set up Rivera in the postseason.
 
The two other bullpens in flux are in San Francisco and Baltimore. The Giants continue to use Brian Wilson as their closer. We have talked about him in our last two editions. He’s is still poaching very favorable BHIP% (.189) and Strand% (88.9%) rates but his 1-1-6, 0.84, 0.80 line is impressive enough to the Giants that rumbling indicate they may lean on him throughout the offseason and enter the spring with Wilson as their closer.  Personally, I think his 5.4/9 K rate makes him less viable as a closing option, even with his 2.1 GB ratio this season. Even that GB rate is a bit inflated and I don’t think Brian can be objectively evaluated until that rate and his BHIP% and Strand% return to some sort of normalcy, or at least until we have more evidence he can maintain above average numbers in the longer term. In the short term Brian closed out his 6th save of the season Sunday and he is the man in San Francisco for the remainder of the season.
 
The end results of elbow injuries to both Chris Ray and Danys Baez is that Jamie Walker is the Orioles closer. He is a 50-50 proposition at this point, just 6- for -12 in save opps, but if every save counts for you, Walker will likely see the bulk of the opps for the Orioles this week. Chad Bradford is still Plan B and he remains a long-shot save possibility this week.  The Orioles will not go into next spring with Walker as their top closing candidate. Expect them to address saves in the free agent market this winter.
 
And the Blue Jays’ closer situation has not quite deteriorated into a job share yet, but Casey Janssen was called on for 4 outs yesterday to finish up the Jay’s 4-1 win over the Yankees. He was in control and the Jays let him run with Bombers in the 9th. Jeremy Accardo remains the Jay’s primary closer but Janssen could very well vulture another save opp before the end of the season.
 
Elsewhere, it is hard to believe the Astros will not shut Brad Lidge down at some point, and soon. He gave up three runs yesterday to blow a save against the Cardinals and take the loss. If you haven’t already taken our advice and landed Chad Qualls before this, now would be a good time to do it.
 

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