(Editors
Note: This is
a sample sneek peak of Prospect Central
this
week. Members of Insiderbaseball.com have seen in-depth profiles of
over 130
prospects this season and the rest of this week’s report was
e-mailed to them
this morning. Not a member? Visit Insiderbasebal.com and see what you
are
missing!) The
calendar has been flipped to September. Rosters have
expanded and major league teams are already fleshing out their rosters
for the
final month. This week in Prospect Central, we perform a lightening
round of
the prospects that were promoted in the last few days.
Many
of these players are among the 130+ prospects we have
profiled, in depth, in this space this year. Members can see those
profiles in
our archives. Just click the Prospect Central tab on our home page at
Insiderbaseball.com. Clay
Buchholz – RHP –
Red Sox What
can you say about what happened at Fenway last night? I
will say this. If you didn’t see it, what you should know
about Clay
Buchholtz’s no-hitter is that it was more impressive than it
sounds. Much more
impressive.
Clay
was masterful last night and he had three pitches
working to an almost unbelievable degree. He threw whatever Tek asked
for, in
any count, at any time. He was fearless, and he was so good that it
upped his
pitch count to 115. He threw 6 curves during the course of the night
that were
so good that home plat umpire Joe West gave up on them too early.
I started counting after the 7th
and those curves that Joe missed cost him somewhere around 12
additional
pitches. The
Red Sox top pitching prospect was recalled earlier than
perhaps the Sox would have wanted due to an injury to Tim Wakefield and
48
hours ago he wasn’t even schedule to pitch in last
night’s game.
The
6-1 right-hander took some lumps in AAA Pawtucket after
marauding through his first 16 appearances at AA this year. He was 7-2,
1.77 in
AA with a .184 OBA and 0.89 WHIP. In AAA he was 1-2, 3.78 in 7 starts
amid
reports that he simple had a hard time reacclimating to AAA after a
short cup
of coffee with the big club. He still struck out 13.7/9 at AAA with a
manageable
2.7 BB rate. He held opponents to a .223 OBA despite an unfavorable
.338 BHIP%
and posted a 1.11 WHIP.
Clay
is the real deal with 3-4 offerings that could be
considered plus at this point (his “slider” might
just be a second, tighter
curve, it is has a lot of bite). He throws a low-to-mid 90’s
fastball, and a
hard slider as well as an outstanding 12-6 curve, and his change which
may be
his best pitch.
He
has control and command of all four pitches and he is
coachable with a solid baseball IQ, a bulldog attitude, and a strong
mental
make up as we saw last night. He also has some physical maturation left
which
may even add a foot to his fastball. Clay is a #1 starter in the making.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade – A+
Radhames
Liz – RHP –
Orioles The
O’s 23-year-old right-hander is the stereotypical young
pitching stud … mad skilz and very little control over them,
or understanding
of them.
He
throws a mid-to-high 90s with great life as well as a
plus curve and usable change. I saw him against the Sea Dogs early this
season
and against the Fisher Cats this summer and saw a thrower starting to
learn how
to pitch. His numbers in this, his second tour of AA showed the gains
he has
made. He was 11-4 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, down from 3-1, 5.36,
1.71 in
10 starts last year. His
BB rate, at 4.6/9 is problematic and the development of
his change, his third pitch, is lagging, meaning he is not even ensured
as a
career as a starter at this point. Liz is also looking at some 2008
time in AAA
as his pitching education continues.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade – C+
Adam
Lind – OF – Blue
Jays The
2006 Eastern League MVP had a rocky go of it with the
big club early this year hitting just .230 with 8 HRs and 24 Rbi in 235
ABs
(.383 SLG%). He suffered from a .264 BHIP% but he clearly
didn’t take root in
his first MLB tour whiffing 22.6% of the time and walking just 5.6%.
In
AAA this season Adam his .302 in 159 ABs with 6 HRs, and
slugged .491. Of course his BHIP% was .365 there so he collected some
of the
luck that was due him in Syracuse.
Adam
upped his walk rate to a marginal 7.0% in AAA but still
fanned 23.9% of the time. To be successful with that K rate you have to
produce
a higher than normal BHIP%. It is easier to control your Ks, which Adam
must
learn to do.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade -
B-
Jacoby
Ellsbury – OF
– Red Sox The
Red Sox top position prospect probably would have stayed
in AAA Pawtucket (where the calamari roam free) a bit longer this month
if not
for injuries to Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew, and Bobby Kielty (Kielty is
back in
the Sox lineup). The Sox also recalled Brandon Moss so
Jacoby’s PT will be
spotty as the Sox try to hold off the Yankees in the East.
Jacoby
simply dominated AA this year (.452, with a .494 OBP,
.644 SLG%, 9.6% K rate and 7.6% BB rate in part because of a ridiculous
.500
BHIP%) before being promoted to AA. He struggled at first in AAA but
more than
held his own overall. Ellsbury hit .297 in AAA with 1 HR and 63 Rbi in
340 ABs.
He posted a .358 OBP but a disappointing .358 SLG%. He held his K rate
to 12.6%
and walked at 8.6%, which are both solid rates.
He
never will hit for HR power but he should provide
doubles, which will help create Rbi opps. Speed is definitely part of
his game
with 40 SBs this season, 32 in AAA.
Ellsbury
is a big part of the Red Sox future as a leadoff
hitter with speed, and their centerfielder. He will be a fantasy
contributor in
SBs, Runs and Average but he will not be a home run hitter. Opportunity
is also a problem here as the Sox
are locked into Coco, Manny and
Drew through
’08 at least. If Coco is moved
during the
offseason that will be a signal that the Sox are ready to hand the
reigns over
to Ellsbury. Of course, they may do it in either case. Still, odds are
that the
23-year old Ellsbury will not be a Sox regular until sometime in 2009.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade – A-
Phil
Dumatrait – LHP
– Reds This
26-year-old left-hander is a TJS alum who is starting
to cobble his career back together. Unfortunately, he suffers from a
low
ceiling due to the fact that he is more than the sum of his parts.
Phil’s
high 80s/low-90s fastball, change, and loose curve
are truly mediocre but he is a heady pitcher who knows how to sequence
his
pitches. The problem is the open question of whether he can outthink
hitters at
the MLB level.
In
his second post-TJS tour of AAA, Phil went 10-6 this year
with a 3.53 ERA. His OBA was .244 but it was aided by a favorable .273
BHIP%.
With his modest 5.4 K/9 mostly offset by his 3.5 BB/9 Phil has to keep
the ball
on the ground and limit homers. When he is going well that happens.
When he
isn’t, things will get ugly in the majors.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade - C
Brandon
Moss – OF -
Red Sox Moss
made his Fenway debut this weekend playing left field
in place of Manny Ramirez. The 24-year old outfielder is capable of
being an
every day OF who can hit 20+ homers, though it probably won’t
happen with the
Red Sox.
Moss
held his strong BB rate (10.9%) in his first tour in
AAA this year but fanned 29.1% of the time in 475 ABs. Despite the Ks
he
maintained a .286 AVG, but needed the help of a very favorable .374
BHIP% to do
it. He left AAA hitting .286 with 16 HRs, 65 Rbi and 41 double
contributing to
a lofty .846 SLG%.
On
the one hand a 29.1% K rate, on the other hand a .846 SLG%
… This is Moss in a nutshell, teasingly talented and
maddeningly inconsistent.
Moss
will have an MLB career ahead of him and it will
probably look a lot like Trot Nixon’s career …
without the injuries we hope.
Think Nixon 2.0
Long
Term Fantasy Grade - B Ian
Kennedy – RHP
- Yankees Joba
Chamberlain has gotten a lot of the Yankees prospect
ink this season but Kennedy may have actually had the better year.
Ian
made his MLB debut yesterday limiting the Rays to 1 run
in 7 IP on 5 hits, 2 walks and 6 K. Ian climbed three levels in 2007
finishing
in AAA where he was 1-1, 2.08 in 6 starts, with a 1.04 WHIP and .204
OBA. That
line was helped by a .265 BHIP% and a 85.6% strand percentage.
Ian
is not overpowering, throwing in the 88-92 range and he
has a fastball with natural sink, which helps him keep the ball in the
ballpark
(0.52 HR/9 in AAA). But location is his game, not that he has
tremendous
control (2.8 BB/9 in AAA)
It
easier to like pitchers who throw hard but Kennedy is
making a living out of defying that bias. Still, he has come a long way
in
short time and there plenty of indicators (favorable strand% and BHIP%,
high
walk rate) that give you pause. If
he can maintain his power K rate (8.8 in AAA) at the MLB
level despite the lack of true power stuff, and if he can maintain his
sterling
HR rate in the majors he can continue to be very effective. He did just
that
Saturday, however, he has to show me at least, he can do it long-term.
Long
term Fantasy Grade – B-
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