Yesterday was a bit of a mixed bag as the Rangers-Angels and Padres-Rockies games ended up being lower scoring than anticipated, but our pitching picks were about as good as you could envision. We also hit on a handful of our batter selections but missed some of the big plays of the day. Hopefully the strength of the pitching was enough to carry your daily teams if you mixed in some of the strong hitting plays. Let's see if we can be better today!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. In the space below I will break down the best and worst plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at ddinkmeyer@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Catchers:
Best Values:
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) - I'm just going to keep plugging away at Lucroy against LHP even if the plan hasn't been particularly fruitful early on. The Diamondbacks will throw their 2nd LHP of the series on Saturday as Patrick Corbin is scheduled to take the hill. Corbin has had a history of allowing hard-hit balls to RHB's, including a career 22% LD Rate allowed and 1.45 HR/9. The Brewers offense has struggled a bit early on and surprisingly hasn't pounded the lefties like they did all last year, but they'll get it going at some point. The one caveat to that is Lucroy's supporting cast might be significantly hampered on Saturday. As of this posting we won't have lineup information for the Brewers but if Ryan Braun (scratched on Friday night) and Aramis Ramirez (left game early) are both out of the lineup, the supporting cast might be so poor that the whole offense rides on Lucroy. If that's the case you might want to search around for some other value.
Salvador Perez (KC) - In Salvador Perez's short career he has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching. Perez has hit .385/.417/.650 against LHP while posting a stellar 0.89 EYE. On Saturday Perez and the Royals will take on John Lannan a LHP who has struggled mightily over the last three years against RHB's. Lannan has struck out just 8.8% of RHB's while walking 9.3% and surrendering an ugly .351 wOBA. Lannan does do a good job at keeping the ball on the ground against RHB's (52% GB Rate), so HR's might not be prevalent, but run production should be for the Royals who have a couple lefty mashers at their disposal in Perez, Billy Butler, and Jeff Francouer.
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - Doumit's pricing on a number of sites seems depressed and with the Twins on the road he gets to hit in a favorable environment in Camden Yards. Doumit will face Chris Tillman who has been pretty homer-prone in his career, allowing 1.38 HR/9. Since Tillman is a RHP, Doumit will get to bat from his more comfortable side. As a LHB against RHP, Doumit has hit .277/.335/.465 in his career and last year on the road he hit .325/.360/.560 against RHP. Tillman also has some rust to work out as he didn't throw much in spring training due to an abdomen injury. He's technically being activated off the disabled list and his last start came against Manatee Community College. Rust for fly-ball pitchers can often result in home runs, making Doumit's power bat a nice play in Camden.
Cheap Play:
Jason Castro (HOU) - The Astros contact issues have been on full-display over the first week of the season, but they figure to get a bit of a reprieve on Saturday when they face Bartolo Colon. Colon allowed a 90% contact rate last season and his approach is very committed to inducing early contact and using the defense behind him. With Jason Castro, who strikes out in over 20% of his PA's, this represent an opportunity to get away with using him without some of the typical strikeout risk. Castro is one of many Astros this will be the case for and while I wouldn't recommend using a bunch of them in tandem (stacking), I would consider mixing one in for salary relief.
First Base:
Best Value Plays:
Adam Lind (TOR) - Lind is still searching for his first hit of the season as he's started 0-14, but if history is any indicator that hitless streak looks likely to end on Saturday. Lind gets to face John Lackey who he's gone 14-26 in his career against with 6 2B's and just 2 K's. While Lind has struggled early on this season, it hasn't been contact related. He's struck out in just 1 of his 14 AB's, and of course a BABIP of .000 is likely to regress over time. He hasn't recorded a line drive yet so he's not exactly hitting into bad luck, but there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about this matchup. Not only has he had personal success against Lackey, but Lackey has really struggled against LHB's over the last three years. He's allowed a 22% LD Rate and a 4.52 xFIP while striking out just 13% of LHB's and walking over 8%. Lind has struggled in recent years but his performance against RHP's has largely remained intact. With the strong history against Lackey and the favorable splits advantage Lind is a solid value play.
Mike Napoli (BOS) - Napoli has crushed LHP throughout much of his career and on Saturday he'll likely be hitting clean-up against JA Happ. Happ and John Lannan are the two weakest LHP's going on Saturday and both have struggled significantly with RHB's. Happ has allowed a .346 wOBA against RHB's and has served up 1.2 HR/9 thanks in part to a hefty 45% FB Rate. The Rogers Center has inflated HR's by 13% above the league average the last three years and Napoli has hit .272/.380/.526 against LHP in his career. His value ranges across sites, but even in the most expensive scenario he's priced as an average 1B option. On a few sites he still has catcher eligibility which makes him even more appealing.
Ryan Howard (PHI) - Howard's in a pretty serious decline but he's still solid against bad RHP's. Last year even though he hit just .219/.295/.432 on the season, he was above average against RHP hitting .247/.333/.451 and that line improved to .261/.317/.533 when he was facing RHP at home. On Saturday he'll get Luis Mendoza who is a sinker-baller that really struggles to find an out-pitch against lefties. Over the last three years Mendoza has walked over 10% of the LHB's he's faced and struck out just over 11%. He's surrendered a 22% LD Rate, a .344 wOBA, and a 4.83 xFIP. Mendoza as a sinker-baller also tends to work down in the zone where Howard's upper-cut swing does most of its damage. This is a nice matchup for Howard and based on his pricing across most sites he's a nice value.
Yonder Alonso (SD) - There is so much value at the 1B position on Saturday it's difficult to figure out which piece to choose. Alonso got the day off on Friday against a LHP and should be back in there on Saturday against RHP Jon Garland. Garland possess a below average K Rate and relies heavily on contact and ground balls to get by. Against LHB's he's allowed a 20% LD Rate over the last three years and over a HR per 9 innings. Much of those statistics were accrued in strong pitching environments (LAD, SD, LAA) which are certainly different than pitching in Coors Field. Alonso should be hitting clean-up in a projected high-scoring affair against a RHP who can't miss bats. It's a very favorable matchup for the young 1B.
Other above average matchups: Billy Butler (KC)
Second Base:
Best Value Play:
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - There aren't a lot of value plays at the 2B position on Saturday unless you want to take a risk on Dustin Ackley in a favorable matchup so I'll probably be spending a bit more at the position. Of the more expensive guys I think there's some value in Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips. Of the two I prefer Pedroia a bit more because he's had slightly more success as a lefty-masher than Phillips has in his career (.853 OPS for Pedroia, .834 OPS for Phillips). Pedroia's also been more dominant of late from that side of the plate. In 2012, Pedroia posted an .848 OPS vs. LHP and in 2011 he posted a 1.010 OPS vs. LHP. He's only seen JA Happ a few times but he's 3-3 off of him with a 2B and Happ's career .776 OPS allowed to RHB's should provide plenty of run-scoring opportunities for the Red Sox.
Shortstop:
Best Value Play:
Alcides Escobar (KC) - Alcides Escobar has almost no difference between batting vs. RHP and LHP, but he typically hits high in the order against LHP, usually occupying the #2 slot in the Royals lineup. If the Royals lineup is constructed appropriately they should present some challenges through the heart of their order for Lannan. Billy Butler and Salvador Perez have both destroyed left-handed pitching in their careers and Escobar should be hitting right in front of the two of them, allowing for plenty of opportunities for runs scored if he can get on base. Lannan allows a .351 wOBA to RHB's and Escobar's OBP improves to .330 against LHP, suggesting there's a decent chance Escobar gets on base in this one and finds his way across home-plate. With his pricing on most sites that will return value.
As is always the case at the SS position if you can afford Jose Reyes or Troy Tulowitzki both are great plays with plus matchups. Tulowitzki gets a fly-ball pitcher who struggles missing bats in Tyson Ross and Reyes gets John Lackey in what figures to be a high scoring affair in Toronto. If you can make room for either, they're tremendous plays.
Third Base:
Best Value Play:
Will MIddlebrooks (BOS) - If you can't tell I'm not particularly high on JA Happ's chances against a RH heavy Red Sox lineup. Against LHP Middlebrooks has generally batted near the middle of the order and in his short career he's been far better against LHP than RHP. Middlebrooks has hit .302/.349/.542 against LHP in his career and he's 3-7 this year against LHP. If you're not going to spend for Miguel Cabrera on Saturday, Middlebrooks is a solid backup plan.
The Stud:
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - Cabrera is the best pure hitter in baseball and on Saturday he gets one of his favorite matchups: Phil Hughes. Cabrera is 9-20 in his career off of Hughes with 2 2B's and 4 HR's. He's struck out just 3 times against Hughes. Prince Fielder got his first HR of the year yesterday and I expect Cabrera to collect his first on Saturday.
Other Value Plays: Todd Frazier (CIN)
Outfield:
Best Value Plays:
Jeff Francouer (KC) - Francouer gets criticized for a lot of the things that he can't do, but the one thing he can do is hit LHP. Frenchy has hit .290/.341/.479 in his career against LHP and he's simply owned John Lannan in his career. In 25 AB's, he's collected 13 hits, 5 XBH's and he's struck out just once. Heck, he's even walked twice and we know how hard that is for Francouer to do. On some sites he's priced near the minimum hitters because of his overall profile. If you find that kind of value on Francouer scoop it up.
Domonic Brown (PHI) - Brown's strong preseason has carried over into the regular season as he's hit .333/.375/.533 with 1 BB and 1 K in his first 16 plate appearances. On Saturday he'll get a favorable matchup against the Royals Luis Mendoza who struggles to get LHB's out and should struggle mightily against the Phillies left-handed heavy lineup. Brown's shown a lot more power against RHP's and in his career he's been better at home. I'm a firm believer the adjustments he made in the spring have unlocked his potential and he's under-priced on most sites. In a really plus matchup, he's a great play tomorrow.
Jonny Gomes (BOS) - Gomes is just another one of Boston's offseason acquisitions that really punishes left-handed pitching. In his career Gomes has hit .283/.382/.510 against lefties making him basically the equivalent of David Wright when he faces a LHP. With JA Happ on the mound on Saturday Gomes not only gets a lefty but he gets one who struggles keeping the ball on the ground. Gomes heavy fly-ball approach fits perfectly with the soft-tossing lefty and should make him an excellent value on sites that don't heavily weight his superior splits.
Andy Dirks (DET) - Phil Hughes allows a 46% FB Rate to LHB's and has posted a career 4.58 xFIP against lefties. Dirks isn't thought of as a huge splits player but last year he hit .336/.375/.515 against righties and posted a ridiculous 26% LD Rate. Dirks has been hitting 6th in the Tigers lineup behind a slew of strong OBP players which should net some RBI opportunities tomorrow. On some sites he's priced as a part-time player and on those he's a strong value play.
Other high priced OFs to consider: Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Dexter Fowler (COL), Giancarlo Stanton (MIA), Jason Heyward (ATL), Mike Trout (LAA)
Starting Pitchers:
Best Value Plays:
Shelby Miller (STL) - Miller makes his regular season debut in a friendly pitching environment in San Francisco. AT&T Park suppressed run-scoring by 19% last year and reduced HR's by 33%. Miller has demonstrated elite strikeout potential at the minor league level, posting K Rates consistently above 26%, and his biggest challenge last year at AAA (1.58 HR/9) should be greatly reduced by the environment he's throwing in on Saturday. The Giants have traditionally been much better against LHP than RHP in recent years and have few LH sluggers that can really threaten Miller. He's priced very affordably across the sites and makes for a very strong value play.
Julio Teheran (ATL) - The young SP will be on display on Saturday as Teheran also makes his 2013 debut against the offensively challenged Cubs. The Cubs have scored just 7 runs in 4 games and they've struck out in 30% of their plate appearances. Teheran was masterful this spring making it look like he's turned the corner as a prospect. His one weakness in the past at the major league level has been the HR and pitching at home should help, but also facing a Cubs lineup with very little raw power should be a perfect fit. Like Miller, Teheran is priced very afford-ably across all the sites.
Max Scherzer (DET) - Scherzer was a front-line ace in the 2nd half of last season when he posted a 2.69 ERA while striking out almost 11 batters per 9 innings. The Yankees lineup isn't what we've been accustomed to in recent years and simply doesn't have many power hitters that can take advantage of Scherzer's mistakes. The Yankees best hitter Robinson Cano has gone just 2-11 with 3 K's (and 1 HR) against Scherzer and if Max can handle him he should be able to get through the lineup just fine. Priced like a #2 starter, Scherzer showed he can be a #1 down the stretch last season and as such is a solid value play.
The Stud:
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - The only issue with Kershaw on Saturday is whether you can afford him. The Pirates have scored just 6 runs in their first 4 games and they're striking out in over 25% of their AB's. Kershaw is money at home posting a career 2.32 ERA in Dodgers Stadium and allowing opposing hitters to hit just .202/.279/.304. If you can afford Kershaw he's far and away the safest play on the schedule and has one of the most favorable matchups.
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