Justin Upton, OF ATL Upton has given his new home fans a show early this season by hitting three homers in four games, all of which have been at Turner Field. It's already clear that Upton's 2012 numbers were largely influenced by a nagging thumb injury he suffered in early April. The outfielder saw a dip in both flyball rate - from 44.8 percent to 35.6 percent - and HR/FB - from 14.8 percent to 11 percent. Upton played most of the 2012 season with a brace on his thumb, but shed it in late August and hit eight homers in his final 36 games.
Barry Zito LHP SF Zito held the St. Louis Cardinals scoreless on three hits Friday night, walking three and striking out four. The left-hander went 1-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 27 innings last April before posting an ERA of 4.54 or higher in three of the next four months, including 6.46 in August. Zito has basically had the same season in three of the last four years - 4.03 ERA; 4.31 FIP; 1.35 WHIP in 2009, 4.15 ERA; 4.25 FIP; 1.34 WHIP in 2010; 4.15 ERA; 4.49 FIP; 1.39 WHIP in 2012 - with 2011's 5.87 ERA serving as the outlier caused by an uncharacteristically low strand rate and high HR/FB.
Dan Haren, RHP WAS Haren's biggest issue last season, besides making the first disabled list trip of his career with a back injury, was a career-high 12.8 percent HR/FB that led to 28 home runs allowed in 176.2 innings. He has a career HR/FB of 10.7 percent, and gave up 20 homers in 238.1 innings in 2011. He looked more like his 2012 self in his first start of the season Friday against the Reds. Cincinnati touched up Haren for nine hits, four home runs and six runs in four innings.
Mike Minor, LHP ATL Minor's 2013 debut was fantastic, as the 25-year-old left-hander limited the Cubs to one run on five hits in 7.1 innings. He struck out seven and didn't walk anyone. Minor figured things out as the season went on last year and he posted a 73/18 K/BB over his final 93.2 innings and had a 2.21 ERA in that span. He had a 6.20 ERA and 72/38 K/BB over his first 85.2 innings. Minor improved noticeably with men on base, recording a 90.3 percent strand rate in July, a 73.4 percent strand rate in August and a 92.6 percent strand rate in September/October. Minor had an unsustainable .252 BABIP in 2012, but he also allowed 26 home runs in 179.1 innings, with 18 coming in his first 85.2. Based on how he performed in the second half, it seems likely he will cut down on the round-trippers in 2013, and a full season of an above-average strand rate will do wonders for his ERA.
Dexter Fowler, OF COL Fowler already has two homers on the road this season after hitting three in 71 games on the road all of last season, and he belted his third home run of the season Friday in the home opener. Fowler hit .332 with a .984 OPS and 13 home runs at Coors Field in 2012, compared to .262/.339/.381 away. The center fielder had a .390 BABIP overall, which obviously isn't sustainable, but which isn't likely to drop down to league average. Fowler's career BABIP is .353, and he had the highest line-drive rate in baseball last season at 27.2 percent, according to FanGraphs.
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