February 25th, 2006

Expected ERA vs Actual ERA

Expected ERA (XERA) depicts a pitcher’s "True ERA" as it bases its expectation on factors within a pitcher's control. These factors include Hits, Walks, Home Runs allowed and K’s. When you consider the inequity with the ERA calculation, specifically related to errors and base runners inherited/left, many including myself consider XERA to be a more precise gauge of ability.

Expected ERA is a term coined by 2 stat researchers (Gill and Reeve), which developed the following mathematical formula ((.575 * H/9 ) + (.94 * HR/9 ) + (.28 * BB/9 ) - (.01 * K/9 ) - Normalizing Factor). The normalizing factor is based on the league (typically in the .270 and .285 range)

The best way to use XERA is to compare it to the actual ERA. Using the delta between the two indicators we can make observations as to whether the pitcher’s ERA was a true gauge of his ability for the given period. For example, in 2005 Pedro Martinez surprised us with a 3.90 ERA, yet his expected ERA was .44 points lower. Assuming the same skill set in 2006, it is an indication of a pitcher who had some bad luck and should post a better ERA.

Overall, based on the MLB pitcher population, XERA and ERA are very close to the same. On average, for the top 150 pitchers, both hover around 4.00.

Here are the guys who had a lower than deserved ERA in 2005:

 
XERA Diff
Sosa,J. -1.293
Duke,Z. -1.175
Suppan,J. -1.005
Pavano,C. -0.977
Washburn,J. -0.913
Silva, C.  -0.824
Lohse,K. -0.780
Millwood,K. -0.771
Belisle,M. -0.708
Seo,J. -0.682
Hudson,T. -0.624
Towers,J. -0.612
Rusch,G. -0.606
Moehler,B. -0.591
Chacin,G. -0.585
Claussen,B. -0.559
Hernandez,L. -0.542
Oswalt,R. -0.516
Santos,V. -0.513
Mulder,M. -0.508

 

How many fantasy folks are banking on are banking Jorge Sosa to post something similar to the 2.55 ERA he did in 2005? Don't count on it, as his expected ERA should have been in the 3.85 range based on the typical semblance of the underlying factors (see formula above).  Don't bank on phenom Zack Duke repeating his 1.81 ERA as it could have been in the 3.00 area. How about Carlos Silva who came out of last year with a ERA which was almost a .75 less than his 3 year average. Kevin Millwood certainly found the right time to once again cash in on a contract year. His 2.86 ERA should have been closer to 3.50.

 

The importance of this indicator can not be under estimated and typically over the stretch of a season there is reversion to the mean for a great majority of the players that are outliers. Fantistics Subscribers can also view the outliers during the season within our Player Charts database.

 

On Monday we'll highlight the guys who had an ERA which was higher than expected in 2005 (and probably will be undervalued in 2006). Enjoy your weekend and see you then!

 

-Anthony

 

 

National League

The first caution flag of Braves spring training went up Friday. New SS Edgar Renteria was held from Friday's workout because of a sore back, and manager Bobby Cox said he also might rest him today.

RHP Pedro Martinez (NYM) is penciled in for a middle-round game of the WBC on March13, likely against Puerto Rico or Cuba, Dominican Republic manager Manny Acta told the New York Daily News Thursday. The hope is for Martinez to pitch in one Grapefruit League game before the international competition - March 7 against the Astros at Tradition Field. Acta said the timetable would line up Martinez to pitch in the March 18 semifinals in San Diego, or more likely the March 20 finals there on extra rest, should the deep Dominican team advance that far.

If RF Bobby Abreu is upset by the offseason trade rumors, it hasn't shown in his batting practice swings. Abreu regularly peppered balls over the right-field fence at the Carpenter Complex on Friday. "He looked impressive," manager Charlie Manuel said. "There was a pretty strong wind, too." Manuel reiterated his contention that Abreu is going to have a huge year in the wake of his disappointment at being dangled to potential suitors. Abreu simply collapsed in the second half of 2005, his Slugging % went from .544 to .405. His K/AB ratio also shot up from .19 to .26, an indication that his plate discipline was a big factor in his demise. At 31, Abreu still has a lot of good seasons ahead of him.

RHP Brian Lawrence (Wash) threw a bullpen session on Thursday and said his shoulder stiffness is a thing of the past. He threw on the mound for eight minutes without feeling any pain. "Everything felt good," Lawrence said. "I took it nice and easy. I threw from the windup and stretch. I threw changeups. I'm on the right track." Lawrence's next bullpen session is Saturday. Look for Lawrence to improve on his 2005 totals. As we highlighted yesterday Lawrence  was shorted 6 Wins last year due to the lack of offensive support when he pitched. His ERA was still abysmal (4.83) but most of that can be attributed to his poor Runners left Stranded Percentage (.65). After averaging .74 in 2002 and 2004, Lawence failed to get the outs when he need ed them most.  Lawerence has gone from a average K/innings pitcher (.74 in 2001) to a below average dominance guy (.56 K/Inning last year). Anyway you dice it, he's a risky Fantasy pick.

RHP Mark Prior (ChC) hopes this season to avoid the high pitch counts that have limited his innings. ''I need to have a more aggressive nature in my pitch calling,'' he said. ''Try to force the issue with hitters. Does that mean I throw inside more or more off-speed? That gets determined by who you are facing. But once I get rolling, there will be strategy issues I'll try to do differently.'

Manager Jerry Narron announced that RHP Aaron Harang will be standing on the mound when the Cincinnati Reds open the regular season April 3 in Great American Ball Park against the Chicago Cubs. He was 11-13 with a 3.83 ERA in 32 starts in 2005, pitched 211 & 2/3 innings and put together 19 quality starts. His record could have been glossier, but the bullpen submarined him a few times.

We'll be hearing plenty about Taylor Buchholz, Jason Hirsh and Fernando Nieve in the coming weeks, months and maybe years, but at this point, it could be Buchholz who heads to Houston with the Astros when camp breaks at the end of March. Fifteen months removed from surgery to repair the bicep and labrum in his right shoulder, Buchholz is finally feeling more like the pitcher the Astros received when they sent Billy Wagner to Philadelphia in November of 2003. So it comes as no surprise that he's doing well in the early stages of Spring Training. The Astros sensed he would make a breakthrough now that enough time has passed since the surgery, and it appears he's ready to make his case for why he should be in the Major Leagues.

Brewers manager Ned Yost confirmed Friday that he met privately with Dana Eveland to tell the 22-year-old left-hander that he needed to get in better physical condition to make the opening-day roster. Eveland is in a three-man competition with right-handers Rick Helling and Dave Bush for the final spot in the rotation. If he doesn't come out on top in that battle, he still could claim a spot in the bullpen.

Even though the Pirates have a fledgling closer in LHP Mike Gonzalez, manager Jim Tracy is not planning to use him in ninth-inning situations until late in the Grapefruit League schedule. Maybe not then, either. Tracy's reasoning is common in the exhibition season: for the early portion, relievers are doing little more than stretching out their arms. In the later portion, the best chance of facing major-league hitters comes before starters are getting yanked in the seventh or eighth innings.

Setup reliever Braden Looper, who had end-of-season surgery to clean up his throwing shoulder, pitched to hitters Friday for the first time this spring. The session provided two tests for the right-hander - testing out a mechanics tweak that he and pitching coach Dave Duncan discussed Thursday and facing a phalanx of left-handed hitters, his nemeses last summer. At Duncan's suggestion, Looper raised his hands up higher at the start of his delivery, not a major change, he said, just a lift of 6 to 10 inches that "will help me repeat my delivery easier, more consistently."

RF Shawn Green (ARI) says he has entered spring training feeling better than he has in recent years, and he hopes it will help him avoid another slow start. Green hit .263 with four home runs in the first two months of 2005, then .297 with 18 homers the rest of the way.

Disappointment that lingered from last spring turned into quiet elation for Rockies RHP Jason Jennings Friday when manager Clint Hurdle named him the starting pitcher for opening day. "It's Jason's time to take the next step,” Hurdle said. “I want him to know, going into the season that I have the confidence in him to take that next step for this club. By giving him the ball on opening day, I can't make a bigger statement than that."

RF J.D. Drew (LA) worked out for the first time and said his surgically repaired right shoulder and right wrist were doing well. "I've been hitting quite a bit for about a month and long-tossing from about 150 feet," he said. "The wrist is not even an issue and the shoulder feels pretty good. It will be a matter of not pushing it."

With Thursday's workout, the first with all Padres present, Josh Barfield officially began his quest for the team's second base job. “Josh will be an everyday second baseman for the Padres. There's no doubt in my mind,” GM Kevin Towers said. “He has the skill set for it. He has great bloodlines. He's proven himself in the minor leagues. It's a matter of when the opportunity comes. April? May? June? July? We haven't played any games. I can't tell you when.”

It's a personal matter that Giants LHP Noah Lowry says doesn't affect his baseball career, but the medicine he takes for hyperactivity will not adversely affect the standard drug tests all players are required to take. "It's not something I'm excited about discussing or prefer to talk about," he said Friday. "It's not that big of a deal for me, and it has nothing to do with baseball." Lowry said MLB is aware of his status regarding the tests. "I've turned in all my paperwork, so everything is by the book."

 

American League

Orioles 2B Brian Roberts took another step forward Friday, participating in a soft-toss drill for the first time since his season-ending elbow injury last September. Roberts went to the cage and looked sharp in taking about 50 swings with spring instructor Julio Vinas under-handing him the ball from about 25 feet away.

The Boston Herald reports that LF Manny Ramirez definitely will not play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. Ramirez’ lack of participation is an apparent volunteered concession to the team for allowing him to report for spring training next Wednesday.

It was just another Friday afternoon for RF Gary Sheffield. The outspoken Yankee lashed out at the team, the media and just about anyone else he could think of on Friday afternoon, only to soften his words about two hours later as the roller-coaster ride came to an end -- at least for the day.

LF Carl Crawford (TB), who has been nursing a bone bruise on his left wrist, hit for the first time Friday. "I'm not beating the wrist up," he said. "I think that's what [manager Joe] Maddon and the guys want. So as long as it's getting better, we're taking this slow progress. I think that's how we'll continue to do everything." Crawford called Friday's progress "significant" because he didn't feel any pain.

CF Vernon Wells (Tor) was back in camp on Friday and wasted no time in getting back into the workouts. The two-time Gold Glove-winning center fielder was in Toronto on Thursday and team doctors examined the strained quadriceps he suffered while lifting weights on Sunday. Nothing serious was discovered and Wells said he is already feeling better. He hopes to be back at full strength by the end of the week. RHP Justin Speier was in Baltimore on Friday, having a specialist look at the right middle finger he injured while throwing earlier this week. Manager John Gibbons thought Speier would have to stop throwing for a couple weeks, but the tests came back better than expected. "He can start throwing in five days. Then we'll kind of see where he's at," Gibbons said. LF Reed Johnson started feeling soreness in his right elbow earlier this week and hasn't been throwing for the last few days. He said he was worried about the injury at first, but that it has felt increasingly better since it first happened.

The White Sox hope some significant alterations in the lineup will be the final touches on a rejuvenated offense that will take a heavy load off their pitching staff. The biggest changes involve SS Juan Uribe and 2B Tadahito Iguchi. Uribe, once known as a free swinger at the bottom of the order, is slated to move to the second spot where patience is required. And Iguchi, who performed brilliantly in his first season in the second spot because of his bat control and unselfishness, will drop to sixth or seventh to take advantage of the run-producing capabilities he displayed in Japan. Iguchi expressed an eagerness to run more in his new spot. He stole 44 bases in 2001 and 42 in 2003 with Fukuoka of the Japanese Pacific League. "I think that's the idea, our goal," manager Ozzie Guillen said.

New Tigers manager Jim Leyland knows LF Craig Monroe is a good player, but more importantly, he thinks Monroe will continue to get better. "He's one of those players that has grown up a lot and has really figured things out," said Leyland, who led the Florida Marlins to the World Series title in 1997. "You need to remember, experience is something you can't teach. We can't make six year players out of three year players." Last season, Monroe achieved career highs in games played (157), at-bats (567), runs (69), hits (157), total bases (253), doubles (30), RBIs (89) and stolen bases (8) for the Tigers. Monroe's 89 RBIs were the most for a Detroit player since Bobby Higginson's 92 RBIs in 2000.

As happens most years, because of open dates in the April schedule, the Royals plan to start the regular season with just four pitchers in their rotation. “We don’t need a fifth starter until April 14,” manager Buddy Bell said. “How we’re going to deal with that, I don’t know. We could keep another position player (for a few days). We could keep that fifth pitcher down here to start a couple of (extended spring) games. It really depends on who that guy is.”

The Twins no longer are worried about how LHP Francisco Liriano will be used in the World Baseball Classic. Liriano is assured of staying on a set schedule and pitching enough innings to prepare him for a spot in the Twins' rotation, quelling concerns the Minnesota staff had early in the week.

RHP Francisco Rodriguez joined the Angels for workouts Friday, eight days late. Rodriguez will try to refine a third pitch, a changeup, to go with his 94-mph fastball and nasty slider. "I'll see how my arm responds to the changeup," he said, "but I don't want it to affect the mechanics of my other pitches." Pitching Coach Bud Black said he'd like Rodriguez to work on the changeup after he returns from the World Baseball Classic, but if he hasn't mastered it by opening day; he'll have to put it on the shelf.

Closer Francisco Cordero (Tex) threw 35 pitches off a mound Friday. It was the first time this spring he's thrown his change- up, and he said that he felt good. Pitching Coach Mark Connor said Cordero probably won't pitch in games until March 10.

The results of the most recent tests on DH Frank Thomas' left foot show the slugger is making progress, leading the Athletics to believe he can begin hitting drills as early as today. Thomas, who missed most of last season with foot and ankle injuries, will begin by hitting off a tee and swinging a bat, but has not been cleared to hit live pitching or to jog.

RHP J.J. Putz (Sea) will probably be ready to pitch off a mound again Monday. Putz, who suffered a back spasm on Tuesday and hasn't thrown since, was able to bend over without pain Friday.

 

 

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. Anthony  worked as a Quantitative Analyst for several Wall Street firms developing statistical portfolio models before creating the Fantistics group. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, including being featured as a guest expert on Major League Baseball's official website. He can be seen hanging around the MLB spring training facilities (wishing they let him play) during the months of February and March. Having won a "trophy room full" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 14 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.


 
   
   
   
   
   
 

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