Up the Middle
The Shortstops
Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) 740 - I like Asdrubal Cabrera as a safe, lower priced option at the SS position. He should be a well balanced player, who doesn’t impress in any one single category, but he won’t hurt you in any either. His downside is his power (only 6 HR in 523 at bats last season), but as I noted in the February 23rd edition of Preseason Prep, his huge increase in doubles and extra base hits should translate into at least double digit homers this season. He was a bit lucky with his balls hit in play last season, but there’s no reason to expect anything less than a .290 batting average. At 23 last season Cabrera already posted an above average contact rate (83%) and LD rate (22%), while posting an infield fly ball percentage of an extremely low 1.6%. This is not a hitter that gives away outs. Fantistics has him projected to hit .298 with 14 HR, 86 R, 74 RBI, and 19 SB. While I don’t see a whole lot of upside with Cabrera, I also don’t see too much risk, especially at a position where most players under the 1k mark come with very little stability.
Alcides Escobar (MLW) 400 - Escobar is definitely one of the riskier picks on my team. His EYE has been pretty terrible throughout his minor league career as a result of low walk rates (around 5%). The good news, though, is that Escobar still makes a lot of contact, around 85% of the time throughout his time in the minors and 85.6% of the time 125 major league at bats last season. So, where does that leave us? Basically, we have a guy who we hope can steal 30+ and score an acceptable amount of runs and won’t hurt us in average but provides almost no power. You get what you pay for though, and there is not a lot of cheap speed to be had at the SS position. Personally, I favor Ian Desmond who I felt had more overall potential, but with the Nationals signing Adam Kennedy it certainly appears Desmond will be at AAA come Opening Day. So, to start the season, I’ll take my lumps with Escobar, and his stock rises if the Brewers ignore his OBP deficiencies and bat him in the two hole anyways.
Jose Reyes (NYM) 1280 - This pick is all speculative based on Reyes’ health. Is his hamstring really completely healthy? Should we be worried about news of a thyroid imbalance that just broke today? If the answer to the former is yes and the latter is no, I can’t justify not having Reyes on my team. He is a top 5 talent who should score plenty of runs with a healthy Carlos Beltran, improved power numbers from David Wright and the addition of Jason Bay. He might not steal 78 bases like he did two years ago, but it’s not like Reyes has old tired legs. When healthy, th 26 YO could still steal 60+, and we have him projected to swipe 65.
However, if there are still concerns about Reyes’ health…
Elvis Andrus (TEX) 780 - If I don’t feel 100% comfortable with Reyes by the conclusion of Spring Training I’ll drop him from my roster for either Andrus or Everth Cabrera. Andrus’ more manageable salary will allow me to play him and Cabrera (Asdrubal) on a more consistent basis. So, if Escobar really struggles it won’t tax my cap too much to leave him on my taxi squad on a semi-regular basis. Andrus has an okay EYE of .52 and walks an okay amount (7.4%). This makes him almost a lock to steal at least 30 bases, and batting in a deep Texas lineup he should score a decent amount of runs no matter where he hits. Fantistics has him projected to score 89 runs. Like Cabrera and Escobar, though, Andrus comes with very little power.
Everth Cabrera (SD) 550 - Cabrera would be an easy selection over Andrus if not for the respective lineups surrounding the two. The Rangers were 10th in the majors in RS; the Padres sat in second last in RS at 29th in the major, which negates Cabrera’s advantage of leading off versus Andrus likely hitting ninth again. Cabrera’s .342 OBP% during his rookie season was disappointing for sure, but he does have a track record of good walk rates. At rookie ball in 2006 he walked 16.2% of the time and then 14.5% of the time in the following year at low A ball. He walked 9.3% of the time in 2008 at A ball, and last season in 438 major league plate appearances he walked 10.5% of the time. So, with these walk rates we should see Cabrera have consistent opportunities to steal bases. We have him projected for 41 SB, but the 73 he stole in just 121 games at A ball in 2008 suggest that number comes with some upside. On the other hand, Cabrera’s .52 EYE that is identical to Andrus’ EYE might suggest the two will have similar batting averages. Unfortunately for Cabrera, this is not the case because of his poor LD% of 14.8%. If he repeats that number this year, he will struggle to hit .270.
So, Cabrera has more stolen base potential and a better spot in the lineup at a cheaper salary, but Andrus is in a much better lineup and a much safer pick in regards to batting average. If forced to make my selection today, I would chose Cabrera for the higher SB potential and cheaper salary.
Why not play it safe with Hanley? Hanley Ramirez is such a talent that I cannot advise against selecting him. However, at the same price I’d rather go with the game’s best and most consistent hitter in Albert Pujols (even if he plays at a deeper position), and I do not have the cap room to carry both players. In a 5x5 format, we have Pujols at a projected auction value of about 5 dollars more than Hanley. Why? Well, Hanley’s 50 steal days are behind him and an inflated singles average last season means he will probably hit 20 – 30 points lower this season. Still a stud by all means, but is he really worth 1890? Maybe at what I’ve found to be the game’s toughest position this season, but those are the unique challenges that come with playing a game such as the DC.
I didn’t cover too many of the other higher priced options, as the complexion of my team leaves me with a lack of speed. If you have chosen to cover speed in other areas, Troy Tulowitzki is a stud and will be worth his tag. Rollins should bounce back but appears to be a tad overpriced. Yunel Escobar is a very nice safe pick at a very manageable tag, but for a middle infielder can you afford just a handful steals?
As always, please feel free to comment below. We have some intriguing issues up for discussion: Whose the better pick, Andrus or E. Cabrera? Is Hanley overpriced? Will Reyes disappoint? Does Asdrubal Cabrera’s bat come with some pop this year? Let’s hear your thoughts!
Grinsch
Mar 5, 10 at 07:48 PM
This is one of the positions I was waiting for you to comment on. I understand part of your overall strategy is to get cheap steals at this position but as I have stated in the past I don't see you placing the dollars with better picks elsewhere and you have just too many "gamble" selections in your lineup - part of this is to make sure you don't waste your FA/12 pickups to compensate for this. Right?
For me I'm going with Tulo and Drew - picks you know will either repeat, won't hurt you, or has some consensus upside. I like A-Cab but I'll use him as a reserve and pop him in when AZ is away (since Drew's road stats are so much poor there) or when I need some dollars to set my starting pitching to maximize the 2 starters.
All the other options you mentioned won't even be on the radar map in the "percent own" when the season starts - but again, I understand you were following your strategy for cheap steals here.
The only different in your strategy thus far and mine is the OF where you are investing in players who have established themselves (be it risky with Hamilton and Sizemore). That's where I'm going with players you could argue are more risky but that's where I see there are more choices to gamble there (my picks are Kemp,Borbon, McCrutchen,Gonzalez, Reimold, & Heyward (provided he make the club)with Upton and Braun on the bench). I point this out because I think it illustrates this here at SS - there just isn't the depth to gamble here with A-Cab and Escobar (I'm sure you are already re-thinking Reyes). If you when into the year with this, I just fear you are wasting a couple of pick-ups to set it right early on. If you are right, I just don't see these picks making a difference - they both would have to have tremendous years to do so - A-Cab, maybe, Escobar - no way. Thus, my comment regarding your overall strategy and how the SS illustrates how risking and optimistic it is.
Mike Leone
Mar 5, 10 at 07:48 PM
Grinsch,
I appreciate the feedback. I view Asdrubal as a relatively safe choice. Nothing flashy, but he's not going to hurt me anywhere, at least not for that tag. As you said, I'm already re-thinking Reyes, leading me to probably take Everth Cabrera. So, this allows me to switch out E. Cabrera for Escobar and vice versa rather easily. Now, I don't need both of these players to break out. If one of them is a bust, I play the other without really changing my lineup complexion. However, if they both bust, then I'm in trouble.
As far as your OF goes, if Heyward does make the club out of the gate, he will probably be on my squad. Also, if you've been following the Fantistics pre-season blog, a couple of our analysts have been weary on Josh Hamilton. I might heed their warnings and drop Hamilton for Borbon; this will allow me to play Ellsbury more sparingly while powering up a bit more at the DH position. I can also play both Ellsbury and Borbon if I need to make up for the lost steals from dropping Reyes off of my roster.