Seth Lugo, SP, KC
Lugo had another strong outing against the Blue Jays on Wednesday, allowing just 1 ER on 2 hits and 2 BB's in 7 IP, while striking out 8. This comes on the heels of throwing 7 shutout innings against the Tigers his last time out, an outing in which he struck out 9 and allowed just 3 hits. For the season, Lugo owns a sensational 1.60 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 45 IP. The advanced stats don't support this sort of excellence, as his xFIP is at 4.21 and he entered Wednesday with an xERA of 4.49. There are several numbers due for serious regression, including his .246 BABIP, 91.1% LOB%, and 5.8% HR/FB. Lugo is certainly worth using when he's going well like this, but he's also someone to consider selling high on if at all possible.
Kutter Crawford, SP, BOS
Crawford pitched well again against the Giants on Wednesday, allowing 2 ER's in 7 IP while striking out 6. He did allow a homerun in the ballgame, amazingly the first long ball he has surrendered this season. Crawford currently boasts a tremendous 1.56 ERA across 40.1 IP through 7 starts this season, a far cry from the 4.74 career ERA that he held coming into the season. But what exactly has changed for Crawford? His strikeout and walk rates remain consistent with his career totals, and his GB% is also only slightly off from his career mark. The biggest difference is that this season Crawford has stopped giving up homeruns - even after Wednesday's bomb, his HR/FB is at 2.0%, compared to 10.6% prior to this season. He has also maintained a .264 BABIP this season, as opposed to the .293 mark he held before 2024. These improvements may partially be good fortune, but he has also severely limited hard contact this season with a 26.1% HardHit% entering Wednesday. Given his 3.93 xFIP, it wouldn't be reasonable to expect Crawford to pitch like an ace all season. But if he can manage to continue avoiding hard hit balls consistently throughout the season, that would likely be the key to him continuing to see better results than he has in previous years.
Roddery Munoz, SP, MIA
Munoz was called up by the Marlins to start Wednesday's game against the Rockies and he did not disappoint, allowing 1 ER on 3 hits and 2 BB's in 6 IP, while striking out 7. He has now made two starts at the big league level, during which he has compiled 2.45 ERA and 14:3 K:BB though 11 IP. Munoz's success at the highest level has to be somewhat surprising, as he has posted a career 6.39 ERA across 81.2 AAA innings between three different organizations, and his BB/9 during his AAA career is also north of 6. And while his strikeout numbers were solid in 2023, that hasn't been the case for him in the minors this season, as he has recorded just 9 K's in 15.2 IP for Miami's AAA affiliate. You would think the Marlins will give Munoz another opportunity to start given how well he's done at the big league level, but it's kind of hard to know what to expect from him with the mixed results that we've seen from him across the board.
Jurickson Profar, OF, SD
Profar hit leadoff for the 4th game in a row on Wednesday, and once again he rewarded the Padres by going 4-4 with a run and 2 RBI against the Reds. In the four games hitting out of the top spot in the lineup, Profar has gone 10-16 with 3 XBH's, 3 runs, and 3 RBI, and over his current 8 game hitting streak, he is hitting .500 (15-30), raising his season BA to .342. Profar has been making excellent contact this season (15.4% K%) as he typically does, but the biggest difference for him has been his quality of contact, as his 40.9% HardHit% is nearly 10% higher than his career mark. With the way he's hitting the ball and with a prime spot in San Diego's lineup, Profar should have plenty of opportunities to rack up counting stats for fantasy owners.
Austin Riley, 3B, ATL
Riley went 2-4 with a triple and 2 RBI against the Mariners on Wednesday. It has been a really slow start for the slugger in 2024, as he is hitting just .235 with 2 HR's through 29 games. He has been especially cold lately, hitting .122 without a single XBH over his last 11 games prior to Wednesday, Riley is still hitting the ball hard with a 48.8% HardHit%, and he is making contact and hitting fly balls at his typical rate, but he has suffered from a peculiar 5.7% HR/FB (career 19.8%). He should turn things around shortly and could make for a strong buy low candidate, although Riley owners may not be quick to give up on someone who they invested so much in on draft day.
This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for tools that will help you win your fantasy championship. Click here for details: http://www.insiderbaseball.
