TFC Preview
Last season I posted my roster prior to doing my position by position preview, and I’ll do the same this year. Seeing the whole roster first makes viewing the position by position analysis more meaningful. So, without further ado, my tentative Opening Day roster:
STARTING LINEUP
C – Carlos Santana (CLE) 1480
C – JP Arencibia (TOR) 1180
1B – Adrian Gonzalez (BOS) 4680
1B – Joey Votto (CIN) 4680
2B – Ian Kinsler (TEX) 3920
2B – Gordon Beckham (CHW) 2170
SS – Troy Tulowitzki (COL) 5130
SS – Jose Reyes (NYM) 4070
3B – Evan Longoria (TB) 3840
3B – Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) 3380
OF – Justin Upton (ARZ) 2780
OF – Jose Tabata (PIT) 1790
OF – Jason Heyward (ATL) 3160
OF – Nelson Cruz (TEX) 3460
OF – Ryan Raburn (DET) 1560
OF – Jay Bruce (CIN) 2550
UTIL – Coco Crisp (OAK) 1940
UTIL – Pedro Alvarez (PIT) 2090
SP – Roy Halladay (PHI) 5200
SP – Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 3630
SP – Cole Hamels (PHI) 3540
SP – Tommy Hanson (ATL) 3370
SP – Felix Hernandez (SEA) 4500
SP – Francisco Liriano (MIN) 3020
RP – Huston Street (COL) 2780
RP – John Axford (MIL) 2700
RP – Matt Thornton (CHW) 2550
SP/RP – Tim Lincecum (SF) 4500
TAXI SQUAD
2B – Rickie Weeks (MIL) 3310
OF – Michael Stanton (FLA) 2850
OF – Colby Rasmus (STL) 2850
OF – Drew Stubbs (CIN) 2850
1B – Albert Pujols (STL) 6130
SS – Ian Desmond (WAS) 1940
RP – JJ Putz (ARZ) 2700
SP – Justin Verlander (DET) 4240
SP – Mat Latos (SD) 3450
SP – Max Scherzer (DET) 2930
SP – Brandon Morrow (TOR) 2580
SP – Jeremy Hellickscon (TB) 2060
SP – Carlos Carrasco (CLE) 1530
SP – Yovani Gallardo (MIL) 2670
*Don’t read too much into who’s starting and who’s on the Taxi Squad. These are my tentative starters based on initial projections for strength of pitching matchups, which are very important on a short week, which the opening week is this year.
Cornering the Competition
First Base
With lots of depth at the outfield and some seemingly good value plays at 2B, I’m inclined to play it safe at 1B. This is one of the more predictable and consistent positions, and it’s a shame to fall behind in the standings by going risky here. Memories of Casey Kotchmann hitting ground ball after ground ball still haunt me; this is not the place to get creative. With that said:
The must have
Joey Votto CIN – 4680 – I’ll simply quote the notes from our projections software here: “Votto is scary good. His .90 FPI is reminiscent of the steroid era. WOW. 13.7 XBH%, .672 SLG against RHP.” At age 27 it’s unlikely that Votto is going to let owners down this season. He has a career LD% of 22.5, and his EYE is trending upwards: .58/.66/.73 making him a lock to hit .300+. On top of that, his BB% grew from 12.9 to 14 last season, and the extra patience (along with Votto entering his peak years) led to a power increase: sizeable growths in ISO and HR/FB%. Votto also stole 16 bases, which is something that should not be overlooked at a speed deprived position.
Avoid
Kendry Morales LAA – 3310 – Some may be attracted by Morales’ price and his extremely strong 2009 campaign. However, there’s too much risk here for my liking at this position. First of all, we don’t know when Morales will be healthy. He’s unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, and even when he does come back it’s uncertain when he will be at full strength. Secondly, his skills don’t support that wonderful 2009 season. He has posted two consecutive .39 EYE’s, and his career 16.5 LD% makes him a bigger BA risk than one might assume after seeing his .306 and .290 batting averages from the past two seasons. Also, prior to his injury, Morales’ ISO dropped off from 2009 quite a bit last season (.263 to .197). Too many red flags here.
If you do decide to go cheap….
Freddie Freeman ATL – 1180 – Freeman hit .319/.378/.518 last season in 124 AAA games, and the Braves are committed to having him be there every day 1B this season. While Freeman does not have the ceiling that some other of the game’s top hitting prospects do, he is a relatively safe option for a rookie. Not only does he have the guaranteed playing time, but, as our Lou Blasi pointed out at Fantistics’ Prospect Central, Freeman has really strong contact rates for a 1B – only striking out 12.8% of the time in 169 AA plate appearances in 2009 and 18.2% of the time in 519 AAA plate appearances last year. He’s Fantistics’ David Regan’s 8th ranked hitting prospect entering the season, and we have him pegged for a .279 BA, 72 RS, 76 RBI, 19 HR and 5 steals. Not great for a first baseman, but depending on your team makeup that’s not bad at all for an 1180 salary.
Final verdict – I’ll carry 3 first basemen:
1. Joey Votto – He’s the must have
2. Albert Pujols STL – 6130 – The only question regarding Pujols is whether or not you can take on the salary as he’s clearly the best roto play in the universe. I’ll take some chances elsewhere, and I also think there’s some hidden value in being able to gain up to 20 steals on the competition by playing Pujols/Votto.
3. Adrian Gonzalez BOS – 4680 – Part of me wonders whether or not a slightly cheaper Mark Teixeira (4370) is a better play. However, it’s too tough to pass up a hitter who slugged 140 points higher on the road last season and is now moving to Fenway. Plus, I expect this to be a popular play so going with Gonzalez provides some security. I don’t suggest taking players just because you think they’ll be highly owned, but when torn, it’s safer to go with the popular play (at least at the start of the season).
Again, Freddie Freeman is a fine play for those numbers, but I don’t like to mess around with my first basemen. I’m rostering the 1st, 2nd and 4th ranked first basemen according to the Fantistics draft software and will take my risks/get my salary relief elsewhere
Third Base
Looking at the salaries, I feel like this is the one position where owners can get the top dogs without paying too much of a premium.
The must haves
Evan Longoria TB – 3840 – I wrote about Longoria in the Preseason Prep area the other day. Here’s a quick recap: You have a 25 YO 3B who has raised his walk rate two years in a row while simultaneously cut his strikeout rate in each of those years as well. Set career highs in LD% and FB% last season, and I wouldn’t expect anything less than a career high in homers this year – an unlucky HR/FB% kept those totals lower than they should have been last year. Oh, and he stole 15 bases too.
Ryan Zimmerman WAS – 3380 – Walk rate (6.7%/10.4/11.4) and EYE (.44/.61/.70) are trending upwards. Importantly for Zimmerman’s power, his huge jump in FB% from 2008 to 2009 (34.1 to 41.6) was shown to be legitimate (41.2 last season). Look for him to repeat 2009 campaign (.290/30/100/100).
Avoid
Alex Rodriguez NYY – 4070 – There’s a lot of name recognition here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see A-Rod be a popular play. However, I’d rather go with the guys trending upwards (Longoria and Zimmerman) than A-Rod who is going through some age related decline. This can be seen in A-Rod’s ISO’s the past four seasons (.331/.271/.245/.236) and his HR/FB% (27.3/22/22.7/17.1). Last year A-Rod clearly sacrificed power for contact as both his walk and strikeout rates fell as his chase percentage was a career high 25.3% and his contact rate on pitches outside of the zone (65.6%) was also a career high by a hefty margin. Not very much value in selecting A-Rod at this tag.
Cheap options
Pedro Alvarez PIT – 2090 – He strikes out a lot but makes up for it with power. Posted dominating ISO’s (.239/.257/.256) as he cruised through three minor league levels the past two seasons. That immediately translated to the ML level as Alvarez had a .205 ISO last year. His 34.3 K% should come down to minor league levels of just under 30% making Alvarez a candidate to hit closer towards .270 than the .256 mark he hit last season. Expect a repeat of his 11 XBH% as Alvarez’s 39.6 FB% and 17.6 HR/FB% indicate he has serious power. Also walks enough (9.6% last season, around 13% throughout the minors) to keep pitchers honest.
Ian Stewart COL – 1710 – Pros: Good source of cheap power (career.206 ISO, 16.2 HR/FB%). LD% jumped from 14.1% to 22.1% leaving some hope for a decent BA. Cons: Strikes out almost a third of the time. Can’t hit lefties: .231/.343./.341 line against them last season. I guess it depends on how much you plan on using your backup 3B. Stewart could be a great play for those who can afford to play him on heavy home weeks and weeks where southpaws aren’t slated to face the Rockies.
Final Verdict – I’ll keep 3 third basemen
1. Evan Longoria – Must Have.
2. Ryan Zimmerman – Must Have.
3. Pedro Alvarez – I almost talked myself into taking the less expensive Stewart, but the way my roster is setup I may end up needing to play my cheapest 3B more often than I’d like. Taking Stewart with that in mind is too much of a risky proposition given his inability to hit lefties and the uncertainity of Coors hitters on the road. Plus Stewart’s MCL sprain is starting to look like it might have an effect on his status come Opening Day.
David Wright (4830) is always an attractive roto play, but I’m not paying 1 to 1.5 million more for a player that may or may not be more valuable than Longoria/Zimmerman. Plus his steals don’t matter as much to me as I anticipate getting more out of my 1B than most teams, and it should be pointed out that Wright has stolen less than 20 bags in 2 of the past 3 seasons. Fantistics projects Wright to repeat last year’s stolen base total of 19.
Anybody who didn't covered that you want an opinion on? Shoot me a line at mleone@fantistics.com or comment below. If you want somebody specific covered for future segments of the preview, post it on the TFC message board under 'Salary Cap Discussion - Players & Strategy'.
Also, make sure to update your Fantistics Projections Software! You can now sort players by their TFC salary, which is an extremely useful tool to use when forming your squad.
