David Price (SP-TB)- Price delivered a strong performance on Thursday against the Indians throwing seven shutout innings. He allowed just two hits with three walks and struck out seven to earn his thirteenth win of the season (tied for the major league lead). Price's 2.64 ERA is the best of his career, but owners should know that he is due see some regression considering his 81.9 percent strand rate. However, this does not mean that Price has improved once again this year. Always a strong strikeout pitcher, Price has enhanced his value by generating a career best 53 percent ground ball rate. This should allow him to weather a likely cold streak and it is likely that Price's home run should drop considering his 12.5 percent HR/FB ratio (9.3 percent for career). In addition, Price has shown his best fastball of his career in 2012 averaging 95.5 mph. With his three plus secondary pitches, Price should finish with an ERA just below or above 3.00.
Alex Avila (C-DET)- Avila went 1-for-4 with a strikeout, a home run and two RBI to help the Tigers to a 5-1 victory over the Angels on Thursday. The home run was his sixth of the season, and he improved his slash line to .245/.346/.394 to go along with his 27 RBI and two stolen bases. As expected, Avila has not been able to replicate the same slash line from 2011 as his BABIP has dropped 64 points from .366 last year, which has lead to a 50 point drop in his batting average. The drop in BABIP in not all about luck, as his Avila's ground ball rate has jumped from 37.8 percent in 2011 to 48.3 percent this year (a career high). This has explained the drop in home runs from last year even though his HR/FB ratio is very close to his 13.1 percent career rate despite hitting his first home run since May.
Jim Johnson (RP-BAL)- Johnson earned his 28th save of the season yesterday against the Twins in the Orioles come from behind victory. He pitched a 1-2-3 inning while lowering his ERA to 2.43 for the season. Johnson, a dominant ground ball pitcher (65.3 percent in 2012), has provided a steady stream of saves for owners in his first season as a closer. With a strong ground ball rate, one would expect a lower BABIP, but Johnson's .208 is likely to increase as the second half progresses. In addition, owners should not expect him to increase his strikeout rate, as his 5.0 percent swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career, and should lead to his worst rate since 2008. With the Orioles prospects dwindling as well, he might be a player owners who have depth at the position should sell high on. He has had a fantastic season already, and it is hard to see him improve upon his first half performance.
Jose Quintana (SP-CHW)- Quintana threw eight scoreless innings against the Red Sox on Thursday night, but did not end up earning the victory. He allowed only five hits without issuing a walk while striking out two. His record remains at 4-1, but he did lower his ERA to 2.30 for the season. While the rookie left-hander has put together a remarkable season, owners should not expect this kind of dominance to continue. His 3.36 FIP and 3.87 xFIP suggest that regression will start to take place in the near future. A .260 BABIP is unsustainable with a 22.2 percent line drive rate, and his walk rate of 1.66 should regress closer to his 2.59 BB/9 triple-A walk rate. In addition, Quintana has benefited from an above average strand rate (83.3 percent), which is also likely to regress. However, I would not be surprised to see his strikeout rate improve from 5.50 K/9 considering he has posted an above average 9.7 percent swinging strike rate. There is no doubt, Quintana has carved out a fantasy future, but his season will not continue at this rate.
Yoenis Cespedes (OF-OAK)- Cespedes went 2-for-3 with a walk, a home run and two RBI to help lead the A's to a victory over the Yankees last night. During the last ten games, the rookie has been on a tear hitting .542 with three home runs and eight RBI. Cespedes has improved his slash line to .293/.353/.532, and the home run was his 12th over the season in just 244 plate appearances. Throw in the fact the outfielder has six stolen bases, and 2012 has been a very successfully rookie campaign. While his 17.1 percent HR/FB ratio has been impressive (especially playing in Oakland), Cespedes has show a strong ability to consistently hit the ball in the air with a 40.1 percent fly ball rate and a 23.3 percent line drive rate. He still has strides that need to be made in terms of plate discipline, and hopefully cut down his 13.7 percent swinging strike rate, but there is no doubt that he will continue to remain in the top 25 among outfielders for the rest of 2012.
