Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather Note:
Danger Zone
Dodgers at Orioles
Cardinals at Phillies
Keep an eye one
Nationals at Mets
I did use players from these games in the notes below in case weather changes, but hopefully I have given enough plays that you have replacements in line in case one of my recommendations gets rained out. I will also try to provide updates closer to roster lock time on Twitter (https://twitter.com/leonem4444).
Catcher
Value Plays
Miguel Montero (ARZ) - The D-Backs cleanup hitter has a tasty matchup in Coors Field today. Montero, who leads all his teammates since 2010 with a .375 wOBA and .872 OPS against RHP, faces off against Jhoulys Chacin who really struggles against LHB. Since 2010 Chacin has allowed a .342 wOBA and 1.11 HR/9 to LHB.
Matt Wieters (BAL) - You will continue to see Matt Wieters' name here as long as he is moderately priced when facing LHP. As I've mentioned as recently as yesterday, Wieters is much better at home and has crushed LHP the last couple of years (.435 wOBA, 1.018 OPS). He has Ryu today in Camden Yards. Ryu is off to a hot start to his MLB career but has shown some vulnerability to RHB evidenced by a .337 wOBA and a 25.6 LD rate. Ryu could be in for more trouble too if his 5.9 HR/FB rate allowed to RHB regresses.
Buster Posey (SF) - Depending on the site, Posey's slow start to the season may have him severely underpriced. Although Posey is much better against LHP, he's still really good against RHP (.349 wOBA) and faces Edinson Volquez who has been terrible to start the season and has allowed a .334 wOBA and 1.26 HR/9 to RHB since 2010.
It's going to be tough for me not to play one of those three given the prices I've seen for them on the sites I've checked.
Another underpriced guy, but one who does not have a great matchup, that you could consider is Salvador Perez.
First Base
Top Play
Joey Votto (CIN) - Votto is expensive everywhere but this is a really good time to use him if you can squeeze him in. He has a .425 wOBA versus RHP since 2011 with a 1.005 OPS. Last season at home versus RHP Votto posted a 1.102 OPS with a .290 ISO. He is facing Kevin Slowey today who has allowed a .343 wOBA to LHB since 2010 and allows them to elevate the ball quite a bit (very low 30.2 GB%) which could lead to a lot of damage in Cincinnati.
Value Plays
Adam Dunn (CHW) - Adam Dunn is off to a really slow start, but that brings his price down for a matchup against Vance Worley at home. Worley has been okay against LHB the last few years (.313 wOBA allowed), but there are signs that some of that could be a mirage (25.4 LD%, 6.4 HR/FB%). Meanwhile, Dunn has a .258 ISO against RHP last year. He's a bit of a boom or bust play, but given his price I'll probably take the chance as there's a decent probability he goes yard.
Anthony Rizzo (CHC) - Rizzo is playing at Miller Park tonight (an extreme hitter's park, especially for HR, from 2010-2012 according to parkfactors.com), and has an okay matchup against Marco Estrada. Estrada has a good K rate and decent K/BB ratio against LHB, but he is susceptible to the long ball, allowing 1.21 HR/9 thanks to a very high 46.3 FB%. Look for Rizzo to hit for some power tonight as a result.
Brandon Belt (SF) - Belt may be a safer play but with less upside than Dunn and Rizzo. He is less likely to hit a HR due to his home park and opposing pitcher Edinson Volquez's GB ways. However, there's a good shot that Belt gets on base and records an RBI or RS against the struggling Volquez who has allowed a .341 wOBA to LHB since 2010. In particular, Volquez has walked 15.6% of LHB which is good for the patient Belt (double digit walk rate against RHP).
Edwin Encarnacion also makes for a solid play at home facing a LHP (Pettitte).
Second Base
Top Play
Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Trust me, this won't be the first Ranger you see in today's recommendations. Kinsler is at home facing a LHP (Joe Saunders), which is always the best time to play him. For his career Kinsler has a 1.072 OPS at home against LHP with a pretty insane .454 wOBA. If you are going to pay up for a 2B, it has to be Kinsler today.
Value Plays
Jason Kipnis (CLE) - Kipnis is supposed to return from a minor injury today. If he indeed does, he has a solid matchup for someone who is priced low on a lot of sites after a slow start. He is going up against Lucas Harrell who has allowed a .346 wOBA to LHB the last several seasons. Conversely, Kipnis is much better against RHP with a solid .342 wOBA.
Josh Rutledge (COL) - This one isn't so much about Pitcher-Batter matchup as it is the environment of the game in general. Rutledge is at home in Coors participating in a game with a Vegas set total of 9.5, a full run higher than any other game. If Rutledge is hitting second for the Rockies (make sure to see a lineup first), he makes for a good value play just due to the quality of opportunities he is likely to see.
Another guy I could see paying up for today is Brandon Phillips who is at home facing Kevin Slowey who has yielded a whopping 1.67 HR/9 to RHB the last few seasons.
Shortstop
Value Plays
Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - This is a recommendation based mostly on price as I've seen Rollins' salary dip on a few sites. He faces Jaime Garcia who is probably smack dab in the middle in terms of talent among today's starting pitchers. Due to the price and Rollins being at home (had an OPS 55 points higher here than on the road last year), I'll likely play him on a few sites.
Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) - It pains me so much to put Cabrera's name down here as he has really burned me the last week or so. Cabrera is just so low priced for what I perceive his true talent level to be, and on top of that he is hitting near the top of the order against Lucas Harrell who isn't very good. I'll probably take a break from Asdrubal because I can either pay a little more for Rollins or a little less for Hardy, but I could see it. Right now he's my backup plan in case Rollins and Hardy get rained out.
JJ Hardy (BAL) - You could pretty much either copy and paste my blurb on Wieters or my blurb on Hardy from yesterday. Basically, he's cheap, hits LHP well, at home and facing Ryu who has not been particularly effective against RHB despite the good overall surface stats.
Third Base
Top Play
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - Beltre is underpriced as it is and then he gets a dream matchup at home against Joe Saunders. Sign me up! Saunders' .359 wOBA allowed to RHB is the worst wOBA split of any SP in action today. He is also giving up 1.27 HR/9 and pitching in the positive hitting environment in Texas isn't going to help matters. Beltre has a .237 ISO against LHP since 2011, and last year he was absolutely awesome at home posting a .346/.388/.599 batting line.
Value Plays
Will Middlebrooks (BOS) - This recommendation is very site dependent as I've seen Middlebrooks range from cheap to middle of the pack to above middle of the pack in terms of pricing. If he's cheap on the site you play at, he's a good GPP play and a decent value play overall. Shields allows 1.13 HR/9 to RHB, and Middlebrooks in his career has a .222 ISO at home against RHP (124 plate appearances).
Mike Moustakas (KC) - Moustakas is dirt cheap on a lot of sites, and while I am down on him overall relative to the rest of the market, I understand using him today if you want to save some money. He is hitting in Fenway Park which is way more favorable to LH power than Moustakas' home park, and opposing pitcher Clay Buchholz is just mediocre against LHB (.311 wOBA and .92 HR/9 allowed).
Todd Frazier (CIN) - It's not a huge sample size, but in 647 career plate appearances Frazier has 29 homers and an impressive .226 ISO. So, it's tough not see him as a value play on sites where his salary is yet to rise given his matchup at home today against Kevin Slowey (1.67 HR/9 allowed to RHB since 2010).
If Eric Chavez starts and hits 6th, he is also a solid value play in Coors against Chacin.
Outfield
Value Plays
Nelson Cruz (TEX) - The pick on Joe Saunders theme continues with Nelson Cruz. You already know why I like RHB against Joe Saunders, but there are reasons why I like Cruz specifically in this matchup. He actually leads all Rangers since 2011 with a .425 wOBA, 1.005 OPS and .283 ISO against LHP. In particular, Cruz had a 1.107 OPS at home against LHP in 2012 and 1.250 OPS at home against LHP in 2011. He is pretty close to a must play tonight.
Jay Bruce (CIN) - Bruce is really awesome both at home and against RHP, and it just gets better one those things are combined. Oh, and he is facing Kevin Slowey, who I've already written why I don't like. Bruce is yet to hit a homer this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he breaks that trend today. Unfortunately, despite not homering yet Bruce's salary is still relatively high on most sites so you will have to pick and choose your spots with him.
Matt Kemp (LAD) - I don't really have any fancy stats or anything for this one. Simply put, Kemp is underpriced due to his slow start. If you believe he is healthy, as I do, then there is no reason to not play Kemp at his tag on most sites - too much value to pass up on when he is priced in with the middle of the pack OF.
Gerardo Parra (ARZ) - Parra is a solid value play leading off for the Diamondbacks in Coors Field against Chacin who is really bad against LHB (.342 wOBA allowed).
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) - This play is very similar to the Kemp recommendation. You have a guy who is way underpriced, and if you believe he's healthy (a bit dicier in this situation) you almost have to play him. He is facing Mat Latos who is a really good pitcher, but if he has a weakness it's the HR ball. In hitter friendly Cincinnati, I wouldn't be surprised to see Stanton put one out.
Andre Ethier (LAD) - Ethier is underpriced and hitting in a favorable environment today (Camden Yards). He is facing Jason Hammel who has allowed a .323 w OBA to LHB since 2010, and Ethier has a .388 wOBA against RHP since 2011 with an impressive .405 OBP.
BJ Upton (ATL) - Upton is still underpriced as his solid game from last night has not been taken into account in pricing yet. He is much better against LHP than RHP, and Wandy Rodriguez is much worse against RHB than he is LHB.
Carlos Beltran (STL) - Beltran is just another guy in a string of proven outfielders I am recommending today whose prices are lower than they should be. He is taking on Roy Halladay today who aside from a start against the Marlins (does that even count?) has looked pretty bad - and that is concerning given velocity reports and a subpar 2012 campaign.
Other guys I wouldn't mind playing are Chris Heisey who has a decent shot at a HR at home against Kevin Slowey. I like Rajai Davis if Jose Bautista is still out, leading off against a LHP, and I like Jose Bautista if he is able to return to the lineup today. He really mashes at home and against LHP. Nolan Reimold is an interesting very cheap play. He won't be in a great spot in the lineup but does hit LHP okay as we saw yesterday with a HR off of David Price.
Starting Pitcher
The Top Guys
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) - This is dependent upon weather, but if the game looks like it is getting played I'm making Strasburg my top SP on most sites. He's not crazy priced anywhere because the strikeouts have been down early on, so now is a good time to take advantage of him. Strasburg is a favorite against the Mets in a game that has the lowest betting total (6.5) of the day.
Mat Latos (CIN) - If you can't quite afford Strasburg or are worried about him getting rained out, Latos makes for a fine top SP option. He is home against the Marlins, one of those teams that are easiet to pick on. He's particularly a good play on sites that give out a lot of points for a win as the Reds are -230 favorites on the day, tied for the biggest favorite in action. So far in 2013 the Marlins have a .232 wOBA that is laughably low even with the small sample size. Consider that the next worst team is the Rays with a .282 wOBA.
The other -230 favorite on the day is the Giants as Madison Bumgarner takes the hill at home against the Padres. This is an extremely safe play, I just prefer either Strasburg for about the same amount of money or Mat Latos for less money.
Value Plays
Brett Myers (CLE) - While the Astros, despite us constantly picking on them, have actually been okay against RHP so far this year (.319 wOBA, 13th in MLB), it's tough not to take an SP against them when they strike out so much. In daily fantasy, strikeouts and wins are often king, and anyone facing the Astros has a good chance at both of those. Despite the mediocre wOBA against RHP, the Astros have struck out 26% of the time - the second worst mark in MLB.
Marco Estrada (MIL) - Estrada is facing a Cubs team that has a low .299 wOBA against RHP and has struck out 22.3% of the time when facing it, 5th worst in MLB. While Estrada is susceptible to the long ball, he has struck out more than a batter an inning for his career and is a pretty low WHIP guy. With not a lot of good options out there today, Estrada is a decent source for strikeouts which should give him a solid base value of points.
Jeff Samardzija is also an interesting play against a heavily right handed Brewers lineup but just was a little too expensive for me on the sites that I checked.
If You Have to Gamble
Brandon Morrow I believe is underpriced relative to his talent, but he has a really tough matchup against the NYY who have just been crushing RHP so far this season. Tommy Hanson is pretty cheap for a home start (pitcher's park) but he is almost a complete gamble at this point especially facing a quality Tigers team.
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