Today's featured DFS site is Fan ThrowDown. Click HERE for a first time deposit bonus!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: Currently no games are projected to have a greater than 30% chance of rain during game time, which usually means we won't have any cancellations. Still, as always, make sure you follow things up until game time as weather patterns can change quickly.
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
NOTE: There are a lot of day games today due to the holiday so keep that in mind. Also, please be sure to double check how the site you are playing on is handling the TEX-ARZ doubleheader. I believe most sites are only counting the first game of the doubleheader which pits Martin Perez against Tyler Skaggs.
Catcher
Top Play
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Mauer is the top catcher play of the day. He's in a hitter's park in Milwaukee with a game that has a total of 9. Mauer has a .384 wOBA against RHP since 2010, and Peralta has struggled against LHB, allowing a .353 wOBA and only striking out 14.8% of batters.
Value Plays
Welington Castillo (CHC) - Castillo makes for a good cheap catcher play today. He has shown skills versus LHP, albeit in a limited sample size, hitting .333/.402/.448 in 97 plate appearances. He faces Jose Quintana (.323 wOBA allowed to RHB) in US Cellular Field which is a strong hitter's park.
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - Doumit has the same favorable matchup obviously as today's top play Joe Mauer. He has shown solid skills against LHP since 2011, posting a .778 OPS.
Jason Castro (HOU) - Castro has been on fire lately so depending on how the site you play at prices, he may not be a value play. On those sites with more delayed pricing, however, Castro should be considered. He is the Astros best hitter against RHP (.369 wOBA, .196 ISO) and generally hits third against RHP because of it. Today he faces Jhoulys Chacin who is not all that good at getting LHB out (.338 wOBA allowed).
First Base
Top Play
Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ) - It's tough to pass on Goldschmidt today at home against a LHP. Goldschmidt crushes lefties to the tune of a .988 OPS and absolutely elite .297 ISO. Martin Perez is being called up to start for the Rangers, and he has not shown any ability at the MLB level to handle RHB. In 24.1 IP Perez has allowed a whopping .537 slugging to RHB and an overall wOBA of .394.
Other top plays with good matchups are David Ortiz facing Tyler Cloyd at home in Fenway Park and Joey Votto facing Ubaldo Jimenez at home at the Great American Ballpark.
Value Plays
Mike Napoli (BOS) - Napoli I've noticed as underpriced on some sites in general, so I will probably utilize him today against Tyler Cloyd. Cloyd has been good against RHB, but I think that is mainly small sample size related. Napoli has no problem with same handed matchups, posting a .929 OPS against RHP with a .274 ISO since 2011.
Lance Berkman (TEX) - You should probably expect to see a lot of Rangers and Diamondbacks listed in the FIX today as two left handed call ups (Tyler Skaggs and Martin Perez) face off against each other. Neither is expected to last too long, and the game is being played in a hitter's park. Berkman gets to face Skaggs, who in 24 IP has allowed a .376 wOBA and whopping 2.25 HR/9 to RHB. Obviously some of that is sample size related, but the numbers are too extreme to ignore.
I'm not a huge Justin Morneau fan but you could make a case for using him today as well. I've already stated opposing pitcher Wily Peralta's numbers against LHB, and Morneau has a solid .834 OPS against RHP since 2011.
Second Base
Best Plays
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - I suppose I am playing semantics here, but I have Pedroia listed as one of the best plays and not a top play because I'm not sure the gap between him and the next best 2B option is all that big even if Pedroia is top ranked. He's got a good matchup at home against Tyler Cloyd, but Pedroia (.344 wOBA, .147 ISO) is solid not elite against RHP.
Jason Kipnis (CLE) - I like Kipnis' matchup today, but he may be priced out of "value play" territory. As we've mentioned in this space before, Kipnis does most of his offensive damage primarily against RHP, posting a .271/.344/.453 batting line against it. Today he is in a strong hitter's park in Cincinnati and faces Mike Leake who has allowed a .345 wOBA and 1.26 HR/9 to LHB.
Value Play
Dan Uggla (ATL) - Uggla hitting in the Rogers Centre, which enhances RH power, is a solid value play today with upside going against Mark Buehrle who has allowed a .327 wOBA and .93 HR/9 to RHB since 2010. Those splits this season are .364 and 1.95 respectively.
If you want to go really cheap here, Rickie Weeks is an option despite his awful season to date. He is at home facing Kevin Correia who has allowed a .341 wOBA and 1.26 HR/9 to RHB.
Shortstop
Value Plays
Andrelton Simmons (ATL) - The Braves-Jays games has one of the higher totals on the day at 9. With Simmons hitting leadoff against Buehrle, who I just stated in Uggla's blurb is struggling against RHB, he's in a good position to have some success today.
Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) - Asdrubal Cabrera has an okay .336 wOBA against RHP. That is more than enough to get him listed as a value play today, though, given his situation. He is hitting third in a solid Indians lineup, in Cincinnati, against Mike Leake.
Jurickson Profar/Elvis Andrus (TEX) - At reasonable prices, both Profar (check his listed position on your site) and Andrus are reasonable value plays in a game with a lot of expected offense. Opposing pitcher Tyler Skaggs has been terrible against RHB.
Third Base
Top Play
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - I continue to beat the Rangers-Diamondbacks drum as I have Beltre as my top 3B play of the day. Beltre is really enticing hitting in that thin desert air against Tyler Skaggs who has allowed 2.25 HR/9 to RHB in 24 IP. Beltre has a .244 ISO against southpaws since 2011.
Obviously you could also make a case for Miguel Cabrera as the top 3B play, but given the price gap between the two I strongly prefer Beltre.
Value Plays
Martin Prado (ARZ) - Prado hasn't been very effective and is likely reasonably priced on the site you play at as a result. That makes him a good value play today at home against Martin Perez (.394 wOBA allowed to RHB in 24.1 IP). Prado himself has a wOBA nearly 25 points higher against LHP than RHP.
Pablo Sandoval (SF) - This game is not being played in a good offensive environment, but then again Panda is used to that given his home park. He has a solid pitcher-batter matchup though. Sandoval has posted an .870 OPS against RHP since 2011, meanwhile Straily in his short career has allowed a .376 wOBA to LHB and 2.43 HR/9 in 29.2 IP.
Cody Ransom (CHC) - Ransom is a good high upside cheap play. He's in a ballpark (US Cellular Field) that enhances RH power and is facing a LHP. Ransom has a whopping .298 ISO in his last 156 PA's against LHP. Be careful not to over rely on Ransom or similar types of splits plays, though, as they are always in danger of being pinch hit for once a same handed pitcher enters the game.
I also think Todd Frazier at home against the volatile Ubaldo Jimenez is a solid upside play at a reasonable cost.
Outfield
Top Plays
Justin Upton (ATL) - I've mentioned earlier that Mark Buehrle has been struggling against RHB, and Upton should be able to take advantage of this in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre. Upton has a .275/.397/.526 batting line against LHP since 2011 and that line sits at .295/.483/.750 this season which is ridiculous.
Ryan Braun (MIL) - Braun might be right behind Miguel Cabrera as the game's best hitter as he crushes both RHP and LHP. He's more affordable than usual today on some sites, which makes him a guy worth squeezing in with a matchup against Kevin Correia and his poor skills against RHB (.341 wOBA allowed and 1.26 HR/9). Braun's ability to hit righties and lefties at an elite level keeps him a top play even when the game reaches the bullpen.
Nelson Cruz (TEX) - I thought about listing Cruz above Upton and Braun, but he's less effective once the game gets to the relief pitchers because of his big platoon splits. Still, he starts out with the best hitter-pitcher matchup of any batter in action today. Cruz has an awesome 1.021 OPS and .296 ISO against LHP since 2011, while opposing starting pitcher Tyler Skaggs has allowed a .376 wOBA and 2.25 HR/9 to RHB in 24 IP thanks to a really high 46.8 FB% that does not play well at Chase Field.
Two other really strong top plays are Carlos Gonzalez and Bryce Harper.
Best Value Plays
Cody Ross (ARZ) - Ross usually makes this list when he is at home facing a LHP, and today is no exception. I clearly expect this to be a high scoring game and have already listed opposing pitcher Martin Perez's troubles. Ross himself has great numbers against lefties, showcasing an .887 OPS against southpaws since 2011.
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) - Ellsbury is pried way too cheaply on some sites after an extended cold streak. He has an elite matchup today at home against Tyler Cloyd who in 19.2 IP has allowed a .374 wOBA and 1.83 HR/9 to LHB. It's a small sample size but the peripherals also back up Cloyd's ineffectiveness against LHB (47.7 FB%, 11.4 K%, 9.1 BB%, 5.88 xFIP).
Matt Kemp (LAD) - Kemp is in a similar boat as Ellsbury today. He is an underrated stud, and while his opposing pitcher (CJ Wilson) isn't as bad as Cloyd, Kemp has some platoon splits to take advantage of. Kemp has clearly ben elite the last few years, but a lot of that is due to his insane numbers against southpaws (1.060 OPS since 2011).
Other Value Plays
AJ Pollock (ARZ) - Pollock will likely be leading off for the Diamondbacks in this anticipated high scoring affair. I'm not sure how long it will last, but he currently has a .359 wOBA against LHP.
Daniel Nava (BOS) - I discussed Tyler Cloyd's problems with LHB in Ellsbury's blurbs, and Nava is another Boston OF that should be able to take advantage of the situation. Nava does his best work hitting from the left side of the plate as he has posted a .372 wOBA against RHP since 2011. This game currently has a high total of 9.5.
Keep an eye on the Atlanta lineup as Reed Johnson would be a really good cheap play facing a lefty if he is starting.
Starting Pitcher
Top Play
Justin Verlander (DET) - Verlander shockingly has put together a string of bad starts. That's actually good news for DFS players, as he is priced much lower than normal today for a great start against the Pirates at home. Verlander is currently listed as the biggest favorite of the day at -200 in a game with a low total (7.5). Given Verlander's strikeout prowess and ability to wok deep into games, I'd say he is nearing must play status today against a Pirates lineup that is mediocre at best.
Other top plays include Madison Bumgarner at Oakland and Adam Wainwright at Kansas City.
Value Plays
The following I could see being used as 2nd or 3rd SP's on multi-SP sites:
Phil Hughes (NYY) - If I am going to throw out a cheap SP, there are two things I want to see 1.) strikeout potential and 2.) a good matchup. Hughes fulfills scenario one as he has struck out over 20% of the batters he has faced the past two seasons. Meanwhile, the Mets have struck out at the 4th highest rate in MLB against RHP with a 23.5% mark. Hughes fulfills scenario two as his biggest weakness (the HR ball) should be downplayed today as he pitches in Citi Field (.84 HR Park Factor) rather than his home park of Yankee Stadium (1.28 HR Park Factor). Overall the Mets rank 24th in MLB in wOBA against RHP with a .302 mark. Hughes is my favorite value play for a second SP option.
Daniel Straily (OAK) - I like Straily as a cheaper complementary pitcher because of his strikeout prowess (career 20.6 K%) and home park (Oakland Coliseum has a park factor of .86 making it one of the best pitcher's parks according to parkfactors.com). The risk here is the matchup as the Giants have posted one of the better team wOBA's against RHP in MLB (.332 mark).
Jose Fernandez (MIA) - Perhaps I am missing something, but Fernandez strikes me as consistently underpriced on multi-SP sites. Sure, he is unlikely to register a win due to his team, but he has displayed really solid skills during his rookie season (22.8 K%, 45.9 GB%, 3.65 xFIP). ZIPS rest of season projections are usually pretty conservative but have Fernandez achieving a 3.79 ERA and 8.82 K/9 the rest of the way.
Another option as a second SP is Jhoulys Chacin as almost anyone facing the Astros deserves this designation, and Chacin gets to work away from Coors Field.
Other possibilities for a cheap third SP include Wily Peralta, Jake Odorizzi and Jason Hammel.
Check out some of the big DFS Baseball Contests going on tonight:
Sign up on DraftStreet and enter tomorrow's $215 Qualifier for their Baseball Championship which has a $400,000 prize pool.
FanDuel is running a $10 Qualifier tomorrow night for the Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. The Qualifier winner gets a trip to Las Vegas and a shot at a $200,000 grand prize.
Enter tomorrow night's StarStreet $200 PFBC Qualifier to win a trip to the Playboy Mansion and a shot at a $75,000 grand prize.
Check out DailyJoust's daily Qualifiers for their $50,000 SuperJoust.
Daily Game Links: Draft Street | Fantasy Feud | FanDuel |DraftDay | StarStreet | Daily Joust | Fan Throwdown | Star Fantasy Leagues
Join the DailyFantasy Fix Distribution list for daily emails.
