Justin Verlander (SP - NYM) - You might look at Verlander's box score from Monday and think that he was pretty decent, just not all that efficient, by throwing 5 shutout innings in a 2-1 loss to Milwaukee. Watching the start left me with a decidedly more negative opinion, although it was impressive how good his control and command were every time he pitched himself into trouble. Aside from his curveball, which hasn't been up to its normal standards for much of this year either, Verlander was just not generating any swinging strikes to speak of. His velocity is down quite a bit, and the stuff just looks quite hittable, as evidenced by his worst swinging strike% since 2014. His first-strike% and zone% are down considerably without a massive walk rate, but in conjunction with a career-high (by a wide margin) exit velocity allowed. This just speaks to me of a pitcher that knows he doesn't have his great stuff and is trying his best to keep his team in the game any way he can. He's doing an admirable job of that at times, mostly against weaker opponents, but I do feel that Verlander has been reduced to a streaming candidate at this point. I'm OK with him against the Giants at home this weekend (he's been much better at home and the Giants are probably in the average category offensively), but I'm less certain about the Padres start next week before the break. More importantly, I would likely be shopping him to pitching-desperate folks during this week unless he was critical for my chances in 2023. I know betting against HOFers late in their career can bite you, but the stuff is clearly in decline and he's still in the process of figuring out how to cope with that. I don't mind peddling him for the name value....I do hate going against a player with his history, but I have trouble seeing him inside my top-30 SP going forward as his stuff stands now.
Spencer Steer (bat - CIN) - Steer reached base all 4 times on Monday against the O's, adding his 12th HR to a pair of singles and a walk in the 10-3 defeat. In a pair of data points that don't make much sense on the surface, I'm probably lower on Steer than most despite having had him on fantasy teams longer than just about anybody. It seems like I should be higher on him, since in the skills that we are primarily looking for in hitting development: plate discipline, contact ability, and "power" (basically the ability to do damage while making contact), he is average or better than average in all three. His plate discipline and contact ability are both very good, and this season he seems to have added a bit of pop to get himself over the average mark there as well. My worry here is that there are just too many more explosive players hanging around in that clubhouse, with more potentially on the way. Steer has managed to stay in the mix with the improvement that he's made this season, but his spot there still feels a bit vulnerable to me. The Statcast expected data (247/415) worries me a little, and his lack of a true defensive home worries me even a bit more. If you look at the depth chart of the Reds and add in the low-floor/high-ceiling Christian Encarnacion-Strand, at what position does Steer have a job? For that reason more than being the type of high-floor/medium-ceiling that I view Steer to be, I don't mind shopping him here during this "all things Red are great" frenzy that we're seeing through the first half of this season. Sometimes you just have to accept that you might be wrong on a player and do what makes the most sense, and I see a Red infield of CES/India/McLain/Elly going forward, and Votto is still there as well. I know they're trying to fit Steer in LF for now, but he looks pretty rough out there and Fraley/Friedl/Senzel/Benson all have some appeal of their own. If you took him out of that environment I would be happy to see a 25 year old with developing power and good plate skills, but playing time always trumps all.
Jordan Westburg (2B? - BAL) - Westburg's first game was a classic "that's just baseball, Susan" event, where he hit 3 groundballs between 93-100 mph for outs, then hit one 65 mph bloop that fell in for a hit. He also walked and was caught stealing. The 24 year old Westburg is the 3rd of this wave of young Oriole bats to hit the majors behind Rutschman and Henderson (and in front of Hjerstad and Cowser), and while he may have one of the lower ceilings of the group, he has hit 36 HRs in his last 158 G in the minors. I think he projects to a solid major league starter in total, with some contact issues paired with above average power and decent speed. He's been playing a bit of 2B in anticipation of this move to Baltimore to take over for (primarily) Adam Frazier, but he's capable of playing SS and 3B as well, giving the O's a lot of moving pieces with some talent in their infield. The O's are likely only second to the Reds (Monday's opponent, coincidentally) in terms of exciting young hitting prospects right now, and Westburg is certainly worth a look immediately in all formats despite the lack of a top-tier ceiling...the offensive strength of the team will help the otherwise "solid but unspectacular" profile play up a bit.
Lane Thomas (OF - WAS) - Thomas is on fire, hitting in 13 of his last 14 after another HR and a double on Monday night against Seattle. That's his 6th homer of the month and brings his slash line up to 297/345/515 on the year. I'm absolute on Thomas as a sell-high candidate though, despite the fact that this pull% likely makes the average-minus legitimately play up to this 20-25 HR level, and the fact that he's truly an above-average contact hitter. Thomas remains, first and foremost, a lefty-masher extraordinaire: 371/419/680 vs LHP, 259/307/418 vs RHP (prior to the HR Monday, of course). He plays in a very poor offense, although he is still on pace to score 100 runs despite that. This hot streak feels like just that though, as his BB:K ratio for the month is 2:25. Yes, there's been improvement, and at age 27 that's not all that surprising. Most of the damage still comes against LHP, and for those of you with daily transactional capability, Thomas is one of those must-haves. In weekly play though, I just don't think he is consistently good enough to be more than a 4th or 5th OF, and I believe that his value might be quite a bit more than that right now in many places.
Andy Ibanez (3B - DET) - Ibanez homered again on Monday, giving him his 10th XBH of the month. For those who are looking solely at season-long stats, Ibanez isn't going to impress, but he's been scorching over the past two weeks since he started playing every day again (.362 AVG with 3 HR in 47 AB). He's hitting 328/369/590 through 20 games in June, and with his newly aggressive approach we are seeing more swing and miss but plenty more exit velocity to offset it. Ibanez has had some excellent minor league performances in his past, but has never really been able to get it going to nay extent at the big league level. I believe that the talent is there for him to be an above average hitter in terms of both contact and power, but obviously time is growing short as he turned 30 in April. He isn't a very good defender, but has logged time everywhere but SS, C, and CF thus far in 2023, which depending on your eligibility requirements could make him a rather valuable player if he can keep up even 75-80% of this hot streak. He's a deep-league add already for me, and he's certainly on the watch list for anything greater than 12-teamers as well.
This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for tools that will help you win your fantasy championship. Click here for details: http://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
