Lance Lynn (SP-CHW) put together another stellar outing on Thursday, this time spinning 7 innings of scoreless baseball in which he surrendered but 1 hit and 1 walk while piling up 11 punchouts. The 36 year-old righty tossed 67 of his 102 pitches for strikes in the contest. While his 6.03 ERA through his first 18 starts (103 IP) of the campaign might be ugly, his 11.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.75 xFIP are all much prettier. Indeed, it appears that Lynn has been burnt by a 64% strand rate (75% career), .328 BABIP (.300 career), and 20% HR/FB (11% career). Yes, the control has been a little off (BB/9 of 2.7 or less each year since 2019), but it really does seem like Lynn has suffered from a lot of poor luck, as he's kept hard contact to a below-average 35% while posting a 73% contact rate and inducing swinging-strikes at a career-best 14% clip. Expect more good outings to follow the All-Star break.
Freddy Peralta (SP-MIL) racked up 10 punchouts over 5.1 IP against the Cubs on Thursday, but allowed 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks while throwing 64 of his 104 offerings for strikes in the outing. The 27 year-old righty surrendered a big fly to Cody Bellinger in the contest. The outing represents something of a microcosm of Peralta's season, as he's recorded plenty of punchouts (10.5 K/9), issued some free passes (3.7 BB/9), and allowed a bunch of runs (4.70 ERA) while enduring some poor luck (4.10 xFIP). In particular, his HR/FB is up to 16% (11% career) while his strand rate is a touch low (69% in 2023, 71% career) and the opposition's BABIP is a tiny bit high (.287 in 2023, .269 career). A further look at the numbers shows a typical 13% swinging-strike rate, 72% contact rate, and 31% hard-hit rate, so it does appear that a combination of poor luck and his weakest control since 2020 are contributing to his inflated ERA. Look for him to bounce back after the All-Star break if he's on your roster, but if he's not he could be a good trade candidate if his owner is down on him because of the bloated ERA.
Lane Thomas (OF-WSH) stayed hot on Wednesday afternoon as he went 2-5 with 3 RBI against the Reds. The 27 year-old has been a pleasant surprise atop the Nationals order so far in 2023, recording a .305 average to go with 14 homers, 48 RBI, 58 runs scored, and 7 steals (in 9 tries) through 370 PA. Other than elevating his hard-hit rate from 34% to 41% (per Statcast) from a season ago (when he hit just .241 with 17 dingers, 52 RBI, 62 runs scored, and 8 steals over 548 PA), there's not THAT much that's different this year, as his strikeout rate (26%) is 2% higher, his contact rate (80%) is 1% lower, he's raised his contact rate on pitches inside the zone (90%) by 1%, and his liner/grounder/flyball distribution (19% / 45% /36%) is pretty on par with what he did last year (17% / 45% / 38%). To some degree, then, luck is factoring into a .381 BABIP that comes in well north of last season's .291; expect some regression after the All-Star break.
Carlos Rodon (SP-NYY) is expected to be activated from the 60-day IL on Friday to make his season debut against the Cubs. The 30 year-old southpaw opened the season on the IL after suffering a forearm strain in early March and was expected back in May, but a back issue disrupted his rehab work, requiring rest and treatment before he could finally begin to again work his way back. Rodon fared well in his most recent rehab appearance, firing 3.2 shutout IP for High-A Hudson Valley (1 H, 2 BB, 8 K) after similar success in a pair of Double-A outings (7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K). Rodon is coming off of a second consecutive strong season (2.88 ERA, 12 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 2.91 xFIP across 178 IP with San Francisco), but fantasy owners should be aware that he'll likely face workload restrictions in his first couple of starts back as he maxed out at 58 pitches in his last rehab appearance.
Alek Manoah (SP-TOR) will rejoin the Blue Jays to start against the Tigers in Detroit on Friday. The 2022 All Star was sent to Toronto's spring training complex in early June to work on his mechanics and rebuild his confidence after a brutal start to the campaign (6.36 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 6.5 BB/9, and 6.10 xFIP across 58 IP). After enduring a rough outing with the club's FCL affiliate (2.2 IP, 11 R, 10 H, 2 BB, 3 K), he fared much better in a recent Double-A outing (5 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 10 K). Although he did additional work through simulated games, it's difficult to fathom that Manoah is "fixed" after one strong minor-league outing, especially since his control apparently remained a bit shaky. His fantasy owners should therefore exercise caution and patience, as his first 13 starts in the majors this season were brutal overall and so he'll need to show something at the big-league level to merit starting. It might be tempting to run him out there against a Detroit offense that ranks 29th in baseball with a team OPS of just .671, Manoah has struggled against all comers - including a rookie-ball lineup - this season.
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