Alex Bregman (3B - HOU) - Bregman reached base 5 times on Monday via 2 walks, 2 singles, and a double in a 9-4 win over Boston. He's an easy player to be disappointed by, as after a pair of years at age 24 and 25 that made him look like a superstar, he's settled into merely being solid most of the time. The high FB and pull rates maximize his average power, especially at home, but with his contact ability it feels like he'd be better served doing a little less of that. The biggest things in Bregman's favor, for me, are: 1) availability - he's on track to play at least 155 G for the 5th time in his 6 full MLB seasons, which absolutely helps those counting stat categories, and 2) plate discipline - he has a few more K than BB this year, but only by 2, and last year had 87 BB and just 77 K. Bregman has one of the best batting eyes in the game, and when he decides to swing he very rarely misses (4.8% swinging strike rate in '23, 5.4% career). I think he might have gotten sucked in to his own hype with the 31 and 41 homer years, because that really shouldn't be his game, but here we are. He's still a very solid player, particularly in OBP-based leagues where his batting eye can be leveraged. There's a pretty fair chance that he'll exceed 90 R and RBI for the 4th time in the past 5 years (excluding 2020 for obvious reasons), and while we tend to look much more at the power, speed, and contact portions of hitting, the ability to put up huge counting stats every year is a major bonus when it seems like 20% of your roster is out injured at any given time. I believe that Bregman was an overrated player a few years ago, but I believe him to be underrated now.
Spencer Torkelson (1B - DET) - Torkelson singled twice, doubled, and homered on Monday against the Cubs, and he's now reached base in 12 straight. It's easy to look at his season and be disappointed, but there's really so much to like here. A 78% contact rate and an avg EV of 92.5 speak to a player that can hit for both AVG and power, and the xAVG and xSLG show the possibility there: 262/495 vs. the actual 233/439 heading into Monday's contest. Things have started to turn around in August, as he's now hitting .294 this month with 8 HRs...I absolutely think that he will be a solid bargain come spring, as the year-long numbers aren't likely to look like anything impressive. He doesn't turn 24 until this weekend, so he's still on the positive side of the age curve, and the Tiger offense (don't laugh) is improving slowly but surely.
Aaron Nola (SP - PHI) - After 4 straight non-QS, Nola finally pitched a decent game on Monday, holding the Giants to 2 runs and 7 hits over 7 innings, walking 1 and striking out 5 to move to 11-8 on the year. His velocity has been back up to "normal" levels for most of the last few months, and he's only walked 5 men in 39 innings in August (with 42 K's). He allowed 2 more solo homers Monday though, bringing him to a career-high 29 thus far this season. The drop in GB rate is hurting him at least as much as the low strand rate, and that GB rate has been a much better predictor of success during his career than anything else. The trend has been steadily down throughout his career, so it isn't really something that you'd expect to turn around. For that reason, I think I'm ready to call Nola's days as a fantasy #1 over....I was just about there in 2021 but last year's rebound had me slotting him in right around 10th. I'd expect he'll be in the mid-teens for me heading into 2024: still very solid, especially in terms of WHIP and wins, but just a half-step below the best for me.
Seiya Suzuki (OF - CUB) - Suzuki homered again on Monday in the 7-6 win over Detroit, and he's hit in 9 of his last 10 now, with 4 HRs over that stretch. For a brief moment it looked like Suzuki might have been relegated to 4th OF status, but he's gone right back to playing every day over the past two weeks. As an OF with above-average ability in both contact and power, the main obstacle to Suzuki's production has been health. He's missed over 80 games already in his first two seasons in MLB, and that's generally something that isn't going to improve as he heads into his 30's next season. I like the talent here and definitely see him as a top-50 OF, but the inability to stay healthy keeps him from moving much higher than that 40-49 range.
Josh Bell (1B - MIA) - Bell homered again in the loss to the Padres on Monday. After homering just 11 times in 347 ABs with Cleveland, the 31 year old has now hit 7 in his first 70 ABs with the Marlins. Bell has proven himself to be an incredibly inconsistent hitter over the years, but the upside here is clearly pretty sizable. His maximum exit velo has remained in the top-50 in MLB despite the variability of his average EV, and his contact ability has always been at least decent. He's been more aggressive this year than any other year in his career....the only other year that really comes close was his 37 HR season. The skill set is still there for Bell to be above average in terms of both contact and power. The xAVG and xSLG of .267 and .467 far surpass his actual production of .242 and .419 coming into Monday's game, so there's been a bit of poor fortune as well. I like Bell to be productive enough to warrant a starting spot down the stretch in virtually all formats, and I have a hunch he will be underrated next spring as well. There's a low floor here, as we've seen repeatedly, but the ceiling is fairly impressive.
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