Tanner Bibee-Guardians-SP
Tanner Bibee went 5.1 IP and gave up 1 ER on 5 H, 0 BB, and 9 K's against the Twins. Bibee struggled his first time out this year (4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, and 4 K) but was dominant in this one. He is coming off a strong rookie season (2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 24% K, 7 % BB, and 4.19 SIERA). There were signs of regression (4.19 SIERA, 80% LOB, and AVG FB). He lives off the success of his offspeed pitches which means that he has to be able to control them on a nightly basis which didn't happen in his first start. It was nice to see Bibee bounce back with better control in this one. Expecting something similar to last year is not wise but a high 3's ERA with good control is more realistic. This profile is still valuable in fantasy with the league ERA being 4.33 in 2023. Bibee gets a nice matchup against the White Sox next time out.
C.J. Abrams-Nationals-SS
C.J. Abrams was 2-5 with 1 HR, 1 R, and 1 RBI in the loss to the Nationals. Abrams has been hot to start the year (.333 AVG with 2 HR, 5 R, 5 RBI, and 3 SB). This comes off a breakout 2023 season in which he hit .245 with 18 HR, 83 R, 64 RBI, and 47 SB. It is easy to forget that Abrams had little experience above Double-A (80 GP). He hits the ball just hard enough to produce 15+ HR and his speed is elite. He appears to be blossoming into a fantasy superstar before our eyes.
Oneil Cruz-Pirates-SS
Oneil Cruz was 2-5 with 1 R against the Nationals. Cruz has started the year hitting .286 with 1 HR, 6 R, 2 RBI, and 0 SB. The underlying skills look scary (40% K) but he is still hitting the ball hard (8% Barrels and 50% Hardhit). The Pirates have also faced primarily left-handed pitchers to start the year. He has 11 PA against LHP to 14 PA against RHP. Cruz has struggled against LHP in his career (.175 AVG with 50% K). This is something that he will eventually need to figure out but does give some credence to his higher-than-normal strikeout rate to start the year. Cruz still has 25 HR/25 SB upside but the fact that he has struggled against LHP and hasn't attempted a stolen base yet is concerning and has lowered his ceiling.
Seth Lugo-Royals-SP
Seth Lugo went 6.2 IP and gave up 1 ER on 8H, 2 BB, and 3 K's against the White Sox. Lugo was good in his first start (6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, and 4 K). He is coming off his best season as a starter (3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP). He showed good skills (23% K, 6% BB, and 45% GB). The move to Kansas City was a good one because he could use the help from a pitcher-friendly park as he tries to repeat 2023. It was just one start but there is some concern that his fastball velocity is down 1.6 mph which led to a decrease in his Stuff+ (103->97). It is early in the season but this is something to watch after his huge innings jump last year and being 34 years old.
Lance Lynn-Cardinals-SP
Lance Lynn went 4.2 IP and gave up 4 ER (3 HR) on 8 H, 1 BB, and 7 K's against the Yankees. Lynn is coming off a disastrous season mixed between the White Sox and Dodgers. He posted a 5.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 183.2 IP. His underlying skills were in line with his career (24% K, 8% BB, 4.33 SIERA) except for home runs (2.16 HR/9). It was easily the worst of his career and normal regression would take care of it the next year. However, Lynn gave up career highs in flyballs (43%) and hard contact (10% Barrels and 39% Hardhit) so not all of it can be regressed. Keeping an eye on his flyball rate is going to be key if he bounces back this year. Lynn was hurt by the long ball (3 HR) in this one. He gets the Phillies at home next which is going to be a tough matchup for him given their power.
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