Triston Casas (1B-BOS) continued to surge as he went 1-3 with a solo bomb and a walk against the Nationals on Thursday. He's now hitting .256 with 20 homers, 48 RBI, 54 runs scored, and a wRC+ of 127 through 401 PA on the campaign. Casas has fanned at a 25% clip but walked at a solid 14% rate while making hard contact at a healthy 38% clip. The exciting thing here is that he's really turned things around after a slow start to the campaign, hitting .337 with 10 homers, 20 RBI, 18 runs scored, and a wRC+ of 197 in 106 PA since the All-Star break after batting just .225 with 9 dingers, 27 RBI, 34 runs scored, and a wRC+ of 98 in 249 PA before the break. Since the break, both his liner rate (22%, up from 20%) and flyball (49%, up from 42%) rates are up, as is his hard-hit rate (46%, up from 35%), even as he's fanning less often (23%, down from 26%). This may be yet another reminder that prospect progression is not linear, as it appears that Casas has figured some things out as the season has progressed and he's blossoming into a fantasy contributor as a result.
Jordan Walker (OF-STL) went 0-3 with a BB and a run scored against the Mets on Thursday. The 21 year-old has underwhelmed compared to expectations in 2023, as he now owns a .256 average to go with 11 homers, 34 RBI, and 31 runs scored across 313 PA, with a wRC+ of 105 indicating that his production has been slightly above average. He's actually been worse in a lot of key areas since the All-Star break, logging a .214 average, 3 dingers, 9 RBI, 10 runs scored, a 77 wRC+, a 23% strikeout rate, and a 27% hard-hit rate in 107 PA after batting .283 with 8 homers, 25 RBI, 20 runs scored, a 123 wRC+, a 22% strikeout rate, and a 42% hard-hit rate in 202 PA before the break. The Cardinals did have him work on trying to lift the ball more, and he's succeeded somewhat in that regard, with his groundball rate down from 56% to 41% and his flyball rate up from 29% to 45%, but his liner rate has actually dipped from 16% to 14% in the process. It's too early to entirely write Walker off as he's a work in progress, but it's looking increasingly unlikely that he'll be a significant fantasy contributor in 2023.
George Kirby (SP-SEA) underwhelmed against the Royals on Thursday afternoon as he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits and no walks while fanning just 2 over 6 innings of work. The 25 year-old righty threw 58 of his 73 offerings for strikes and did surrender one big fly in the outing. Kirby's season line now sits at a 3.23 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, and 3.60 xFIP through 24 starts (150.2 IP). He's simply been a strike-throwing machine, which might be his biggest fault as he's posted a miniscule walk rate but has been prone to being too easy to hit at times. Underneath the hood, it's encouraging to see that he has increased the opposition's chase rate from 34% last season to 37% this year while slightly elevating his swinging-strike rate from 9.7% last year to 10.4% this season. And the opposition's actually posted a lower contact rate against him this year, down from 81.5% to 80.6%, while their hard-hit rate has remained stable at about 31.5%. Overall, Kirby has made some subtle improvements and fantasy owners will just have to hope that those can translate to more punchouts going forward. For now, he'll prepare for a favorable start against the White Sox next week.
Jose Quintana (SP-NYM) earned the win against the Cardinals on Thursday evening despite laboring at times, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits and 4 walks while striking out 5 over 6 IP. The 34 year-old southpaw tossed 57 of his 97 pitches for strikes while serving up one dinger in the contest. Quintana's 3.03 ERA through 6 starts (35.2 IP) on the year might appear exciting for fantasy, but a 6.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 5.06 xFIP should deter a fantasy owner from adding him to their roster. He's benefitted from a 71% strand rate and 2% HR/FB, both of which have helped to mitigate the damage that might come from a high walk rate and low strikeout rate. Meanwhile, his sub-42% groundball rate is his lowest since 2016 while his swinging-strike rate - which came in north of 10.5% each of the last three seasons - is below 9% so far this year. Look for some correction to the mean - not in a good way - next week when he faces the Braves in Atlanta.
Gavin Williams (SP-CLE) should be a strong standard fantasy and DFS play on Friday. The 24 year-old righty has enjoyed a positive start to his big-league career, recording a 2.80 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 4.16 xFIP through his first 10 MLB starts (54.2 IP). His swinging-strike rate is healthy at 13% while opposing hitters have not made a lot of hard contact against him (30%). Williams has been electric so far in August, logging a 1.59 ERA, 14.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 2.27 xFIP across 17 IP. Even better, he is scheduled to take on the Tigers at home on Friday, and Detroit's offense ranks #27 in the majors in team OPS (.666) on the road this season. Williams is currently available in roughly 80% of ESPN leagues.
This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for tools that will help you win your fantasy championship. Click here for details: http://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
