Jose Berrios (SP-TOR) largely held the Orioles lineup in check on Monday as he allowed 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk while striking out 4 over 7 IP. The 29 year-old righty fired 59 of his 94 offerings for strikes while surrendering a pair of solo shots in the outing. Berrios now owns a 2.82 ERA, 7 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 through his first 9 starts (54.1 IP) of the season, with a 4.26 xFIP warning fantasy owners that regression should be coming. Indeed, an 88.5% strand rate and .229 BABIP are both lucky figures, and Berrios just doesn't miss many bats (sub-9% swinging-strike rate). Even the opposition's Statcast metrics are alarming (48% hard-hit rate, 8.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity north of 91 mph). Consider selling high as he prepares for a turn against the Rays at home this weekend.
Reynaldo Lopez (SP-ATL) did not factor into the decision against the Cubs on Monday despite firing 5 shutout IP in which he scattered 2 hits and 2 walks while recording 4 punchouts. The 30 year-old righty fired 50 of his 71 offerings for strikes in the outing. Lopez has a stellar 1.34 ERA and a solid 8.9 K/9 through his first 7 starts (40.1 IP) of the year, but his 3.78 xFIP and 3.6 BB/9 are both concerning. He's enjoyed a lot of luck in the form of a 90% strand rate, 5% HR/FB, and .257 BABIP, so fantasy owners should expect some regression going forward, even if his swinging-strike rate is solid at 12% and his contact rate is below-average at 75%. He's slated to take on the Padres at home this weekend.
Tyler O'Neill (OF-BOS) went 1-3 with a 3-run jack and a walk against the Rays on Monday. The 28 year-old slugger is in the midst of putting together his strongest season since 2021, when he hit .286 with 34 homers, 80 RBI, 89 runs scored, and 15 steals in 537 PA, with a wRC+ of 143. Through his first 134 PA of the 2024 season, O'Neill now boasts a .265 average to go with 10 bombs, 16 RBI, 24 runs scored, and 1 stolen base, with a robust wRC+ of 162. The strikeouts remain problematic (30% strikeout rate), but O'Neill has simply punished the ball with a Statcast profile that includes a 43% hard-hit rate, 18.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 91 mph. Other than the strikeouts, (30% career strikeout rate), O'Neill's biggest flaw has been his inability to stay on the field, as he's only recorded more than 400 PA just once in a season since reaching the majors back in 2018.
Spencer Torkelson (1B-DET) went 1-4 with a 2-run shot against the Marlins on Monday. The 24 year-old began the season slowly, as he's now batting just .225 with 2 dingers, 16 RBI, and 16 runs scored through his first 168 PA of the campaign, with a subpar wRC+ of 85. The good news is that Torkelson has ended his power drought since he's now gone deep in two straight games. While his fantasy owners are certainly disappointed with the returns so far, bear in mind that he didn't really turn things on until June last season, slugging 27 of his 31 dingers after June 1 last year. A low average might just be a part of his game, so fantasy owners are counting on the power output that he's recently flashed again.
Reese Olson (SP-DET) is a good option for DFS and standard fantasy leagues - where he is rostered in 54% of CBS leagues and only 8% of ESPN leagues - as he prepares to face the Marlins at home on Tuesday. The Marlins rank #24 in baseball with a team OPS of just .662 against righties and, of course, recently traded away one of their best bats in Luis Arraez. For his part, Olson has been solid through 7 starts this season, compiling a 2.52 ERA, 8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 4.02 xFIP over 39.1 IP. The 24 year-old righty has surrendered hard contact at only a 30% clip while limiting the opposition's contact rate to just 73%. His 12.5% swinging-strike rate, moreover, suggests that there could be more punchouts coming.
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