Jesus Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Luzardo went 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 12 K on an absolute gem of an outing. Luzardo is playing like such a complete pitcher right now. His 30/7 K/BB has me salivating, but then he pairs it with a 50% GB rate, and I'm not surprised that he sports a 2.92 xERA and 2.96 xFIP. Luzardo has shown flashes of greatness before, but hasn't been able to put it together consistently. He's done a much better job of being the same guy start in and start out this year. Luzardo has gone 22.2 IP, 1 ER, 27 K in his last three starts. An easy target for 2027 drafts.
Coby Mayo, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Mayo went 2-5 with 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 K on two hard hit balls. We've been waiting for a Mayo breakout for a couple years, and we're finally getting a mini breakout towards the end of the season here. Mayo is batting .333/.368/.722 in September, and while that's a small sample, there are still elements to his game that do not allow us to count him out. May has 21 homers on the season thanks to a 29.8% Pull Air %, super low 32.9% GB rate, and 48% HH rate. You know I love xwOBACON and his sits at .429. So what holds Mayo back? It's not hard to guess. A 31% whiff rate and 32% chase rate cause him to strikeout an unfortunate 32% of the time - not sustainable unless you true top of the scale quality of contact metrics. Mayo is more in the "strong" category than "elite". The good news is I think some of the K rate is actually swing decision related, and can see him being able to bring that down to 27-28%. Mayo actually has a 82% Z Contact rate, but a 65% Meatball swing is well below the 75% big league average. He has a disproportionately high whiff inside the zone as well - so the fix (while not easy) is simple. He needs to ambush stuff in the middle of the zone better. For someone with his quality of contact, he is taking too many hittable pitches.
AJ Ewing, OF, New York Mets
Ewing went 3-5 with 2B, 3 RBI on one hard hit ball. Ewing is a super savvy pick in 2027 drafts and here's why: it's because he isn't very good. Let me explain. If we're constantly searching for the player that provides us the most obvious upside flags - hitting the ball hard, high expected stats, good contact rates - we'll never have a real market edge. Players with incredible stats under the hood who underperform always make their rounds in the fantasy community. As a result, they become a major talking point, and their ADP slowly rises throughout the offseason. And then one day, you see that player get taken 2 rounds too early in your home/office league. No market edge there. Ewing is the perfect market edge play because he is NOT the player that will be a major talking point in the 2027 offseason. Ewing's smaller stature (5'10/160), Low Pull Air rate (13%), low bat speed (70), and high K rate (26%), will have many people fading him in 2026. My perspective on this player is completely flipped. Ewing hit 8 homers this year IN SPITE of being smaller, lacking bat speed, and a league average ability to get the ball in the air. Ewing only struck out at 26%, and posted an 84% Z Contact rate spending most of the year as a 21 year old. Ewing posted a .258 xBA, 36% LASS, and 7% Barrel rate - again - while only being 21 years old. Sometimes, there aren't always signs. Sometimes players get better and players get worse. This is the exact type of player to go 20-20 with strong ratios in 2027, and have us all look back with our hands in the air wondering where this came from. Draft AJ Ewing in 2027.
Ben Joyce, RP, Angels
Joyce went 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K in clean 8th/non-save situation. Joyce topped 103 mph. The Angels are one of the worst organizations in baseball, and there is clearly a rebuild they need to commit to in the near future. They won't win many games in 2027. As a result, even if Ben Joyce wins the closer role in the spring, I think he will come at quite the discount ADP-wise. Joyce has only 10.1 IP this season, but he's striking out 36% of hitters and has yet to let up a barrel. And while he's walking 13% of batters, he actually has a career Zone rate of 51.9%. Solid! I think Joyce is going to be a massive value in 2027 drafts, because even if he can find a way to muster up 15-25 saves next year, there will be strikeouts and super strong ratios to make up for it. Follow him CLOSELY next spring.
Luis Lara, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Lara went 1-4 with R, K on two hard hit balls. Lara is doing some impressive things for me as a 21 year old right now. His 43.5% HH rate is very impressive given his 5'7 stature and lower 71.5 bat speed. Lara is also displaying really impressive contact skills. His 86.8% Z Contact and low 17.7% whiff are really impressive given his age. A 38% LASS helps him get to .266 xBA. While none of these figures jump off the page, context is important. Lara is displaying the full set of skills we need for a fantasy breakout. He both hits the ball hard, makes contact, and steals bases at a decent rate...all at the age of only 21 years old. I'd imagine Lara is going to be a last-man-on-the-roster type in 2027, and I'm going to find myself taking him there a lot.
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