Jason Marquis who led the NL in losses in 2006 had a solid debut for the Cubs on Thursday limiting the Reds to 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks over 6 IP. He only fanned one but he also threw 9 GBOs. He left the game with a 2-1 lead but the Cubs bullpen was ragged and Bobby Howry gave up two runs, one earned and took the loss. Jason is a text book example of a guy you want to stay away from. He gives up more than a hit per inning (.289 OBA last year), carries low K rate (4.4/9 in 2006 and 4.3/9 in 2005), he gives up the long ball (average of 32 in the last two seasons, .868 OPS last year), and he walks guys (1.28 K/BB last year, 1.45 in 2005) ... Still ... he pitched well yesterday ... Still ... stay away.

 

Fans in Cincinnati were treated to an absolutely amazing pitching matchup yesterday featuring Jason Marquis against Kyle Lohse ... Where else can you get entertainment like that? The thing is that it turned out to be a pretty good pitching "duel"until the bullpens got involved. For his part Lohse went 6.1 IP allowing the Cubs 2 runs. He gave up 10 hits and 2 walks along the way (2.00), giving up 10 flyballs ... so it could have been worse. He fanned 3. The difference between Kyle and his opponent however is that the Reds bullpen backed him up with 2.2 scoreless IP. Kyle carries a career .298 OBA and .799 OPS ... oh and a 4.85 career ERA. He's lucky to have an MLB job and despite yesterday's strong outing he shouldn't have a job in your league.

 

I have never been the biggest Chuck James fan. It's not that I don't think he's a talented young pitcher, I just tend to lean more towards young power pitchers when prospecting, which James is decidedly not. His start on Thursday however shows how effective he can be. Still it wasn't quite as rock solid as it's resulting pitching line. Chuck held the Phillies to 1 run in 5 IP on 6 hits and a walk while striking out 5. He threw 50 strikes in 86 IP and his GB/FB split was just 2/8. Chuck maintains a serviceable K rate, 6.8/9 last year despite not blowing people away. His success comes from missing bats (a .232 OBA in 119 IP last year). He doesn't help himself a lot though. He's not particularly stingy with walks (47 in 119 IP last year, 1.94 K/BB) and he gives up too many flyballs (0.50 GB ratio in 05). That leads to HRs. Chuck gave up 20 gophers last year in a little over half the amount of innings he's expected to throw this year. James is a high-level pitching prospect and will be effective often, but for my money his margin for error is too slim. He might have had some trouble with some of those 9 FBO on Thursday if it weren't 43 degrees and Chuck will also need to become a bit more efficient in terms of pitch count and it remains to be seen if he can do that without becoming more hittable in the process. He could very well be a Glavine-type of guy eventually but I think I'd been willing to let someone else in my league invest heavily to find out.

 

Clay Condrey started his relief appearance yesterday by striking out the first 5 Braves he faced. He went on to take two innings off the board without allowing a baserunner, striking out 5. There's nothing in his minor league history to indicate Clay can be dominant enough to move towards the 8^th and 9^th innings but you can't prove it by the Braves yesterday. In 91.1 career MLB IP so far Clay has allowed 98 hits and 38 walks (1.49) and a .318 OBA (.833 OPS). About the only thing he does consistently well at this level is throw GBs, ground balls (1.84 career GB ratio). That's why he's a middle reliever. It's ok to pay attention to yesterday and watch for follow up performances, but don't invest yet.

 

Matt Morris kept the ball in the ballpark on Thursday and as a result kicked off his season with a strong win. Morris allowed the Padres 5 hits and 2 walks in 6 IP (1.16), giving up 1 run while striking out 2. He coaxed 9 GBO from the Padres while getting 7 FBOs . Matt sports a career 1.62 GB ratio but homers have been his undoing. He's allowed 22 in each of the last two seasons, a vast improvement over the 35 he gave up in 2004, but still a problem. Last year 14 of those HRs came with runners on and Matt allowed a .297 OBA and .852 OPS with runners on (and mostly from the stretch), 49 average points and 152 OPS point higher than from the windup. Matt is not the dominating pitcher we envisioned when he broke in but he is capable of a fairly solid, middle-of-the-rotation type of season in SF. He has to avoid the long ball and control the game better with runners on.

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