If you play in head-to-head leagues with the option for daily transactions, you may already be thinking about the "pitch-and-ditch"strategy for the upcoming fantasy weekend. If you have the incredibly unfortunate luck of having all of the following players on your team: Chris Carpenter, Jose Contreras, Jake Westbrook, and Jorge Julio, you would have a blended ERA of 14.85 and WHIP of 2.63.
Come down from the ledge and take a deep breath. You're the perfect candidate to play some "add and drop"games this weekend. Remember - Its just the first week of the season. We're here to help you salvage some pitching categories, like wins and strikeouts, before you start fresh again on Monday. But before we dig into the top pitching pickup recommendations for Saturday and Sunday, there are a few things to keep in mind:
1) Its VERY difficult to salvage both wins and strikeouts. My school of thought is you should focus solely on winning one of these categories based on volume. Trying to get too much through a blended strategy of strikeout pitchers and pitchers on winning teams seems to work less frequently.
2) Take a look at the free agent pitchers who have starts this weekend. I usually refer to the MLB schedule (here) to get the most recent starting pitchers for the upcoming fantasy day and compare the list to the free agent list in my fantasy leagues. If I'm thinking about this way in advance, I check out Insider Baseball's 14-Day Pitching Rotations.
3) So the free agent list is plentiful and you see some power pitchers. Four factors to look for if you're looking to win Strikeouts:
a) Strikeout rates of the players in the opposing lineup
b) The pitcher's K/I history
c) Is the pitcher in the NL (easier to strikeout pitchers than the DH)?
d) Average runs per game scored by the pitcher's team
For the part d, if a pitcher has run support, he should, in general, pitch deeper into the game and get more opportunities for strikeouts.
4) So you've decided to punt on strikeouts and go for Wins. Look for:
a) Quality start %
b) Average runs per game scored by the opposing team
c) Opposing team's recent OPS
d) Average runs per game scored by the pitcher's team
e) Opposing team's starting pitcher and QS%
f) Odds (favorite versus underdog)
There are a ton of other factors that aren't always captured by the stats and shouldn't be ignored (slumping or hot teams, recent injuries, etc). For this weekend, since there isn't enough statistical data in 2007 to do this research, I took the liberty to carry-over data from 2006 and made some assumptions. In general, though, I use this method for my own personal use and it has worked more often than not. Below are my top-5 pickups of players in your mixed league who are likely free agents and decent spot-starts. Good luck this weekend and I'll see you right back here on Monday morning in the AL Player Notes! -- Joe
SATURDAY:
Kei Igawa - Strikeouts - Igawa makes his debut in the Yankee pinstripes on Saturday 4/6 against the Baltimore Orioles. Igawa averaged a K/I of 0.94 in his six seasons with the Hanshin Tigers and posted a 0.96 in Spring Training this year. We have him projected at 0.87 for the season with a K/9 of 7.8. He'll be facing the Orioles who rank 5th in strikeouts in the AL and are 3rd to last in AVG with a .192 and OPS of .606. For this outing, Manager Joe Torre likely won't push Igawa's pitch count, but he's the best strikeout option who may be a free agent in your league (owned by about 75% according to some of the major public fantasy services).
Mike Maroth - Win - I'm not in the business of predicting a "W"for the Mike Maroths of the world. But of the likely available pitchers in your league, I think he has the best chance to earn you a win on Saturday (owned in about 17% of all leagues). He'll face the Kansas City Royals who have scored only 9 runs in the first 3 games of the season and is hitting just .224 as a team with an OPS of .658. We have Maroth forecasted to convert 53% for quality starts. One negative against him is that he'll face off against Gil Meche who looked really good in his first start of the season. Also, some of the marquee Royals have had some past success against Maroth. With all that said, I usually err on picking the pitcher facing teams like the Royals and the Nationals over other teams. Its not a bad bet.
SUNDAY:
Orlando "El Duque"Hernandez - Strikeouts - El Duque will make his second start of the season on Sunday against the red-hot Atlanta Braves. In his split season with the Diamondbacks and the Mets last year, he averaged a 1.01 K/I and 9.1 K/9 in 162 IP. His first game this season was effective - 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, but no strikeouts. That won't last. Shifting to his opponent, the Braves, helps the "El Duque cause"as well. The Braves lead the Major Leagues in strikeouts so far this season with 34. National League pitcher? Check. And we all know about the potent Mets offense, scoring 20 runs in 3 games (average of 6.7 per game). He's a free agent in a little more than 50% of all the leagues according to CBS Sportsline.
Livan Hernandez - Win - Livan will face his former team, the Nationals, in Washington on Sunday and will face off against Shawn Hill. For the last four years, Hernandez has averaged a quality start % over 60%. In 2006, he wasn't far off this trend at 56%. The Nationals rank 7th in the NL in runs scored per game this season (it's a little early to place too much emphasis on this stat, but we all know they're not going to score runs like the Mets). The good news is that the Diamondbacks are 4th in the league in runs scored averaging over almost 5 through the first four games of the season. We have him forecasted to average 6.4 IP per game in 2007. The longer he hangs around in this game and the D-Backs get into the Nationals bullpen, the greater chance he has to convert the win. The Nationals ballpark factor is also a positive at 112. Hernandez's opponent, Shawn Hill, is a young kid with not a lot of history, but we have his QS % forecasted at about 50%. Its too early to look at the Vegas odds on this game, but my guess is that the D-Backs will be the favorite. All signs point to Livan. He's a free agent in about 50% of all the leagues according to CBS Sportsline.
Aaron Cook - Win - Looking at Cook's start on Sunday, I think he matches up decently against the Padres. Last year, Cook converted a 56% quality start percentage, down a bit from 77% the year before. Since 2002, his QS % is 56.1%. Still, not bad for a free agent pickup. The Padres rank 8th in the NL in runs scored per game this season (it's a little early to place too much emphasis on this stat, but they're not going to score runs like the Mets). The good news is that the Rockies are 2nd in the league (behind the Marlins) in runs scored averaging over 7 through the first three games of the season. The glaring negative to this match-up is that Jake Peavy will be taking the ball for Padres. But, in 172 career AB for the collective players on the Rockies, they are hitting .337 against Peavy with a .984 OPS. The Rockies have plenty of good bats in Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Brad Hawpe who have all had success against Peavy in the past (look here for the complete stats breakdown). He's a free agent in about 80% of all the leagues according to CBS Sportsline.
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