Welcome to Prospect Central for Week #2! Today we look at a few prospects who earned a spot on the major league team's Opening Day roster and some that could have, and probably will before the summer is out.

 

Joey Votto - Cincinnati

First Baseman - Bats Left - 09/10/1983

 

Joey Votto should have been the Minor League Comeback Player of the Year in addition to the Southern League MVP. After a very disappointing second season in A ball Joey dominated AA offensively.

 

Votto is a pure slugger and that is the context in which you have to look at his strikeout numbers. In that context, he does pretty well. He doesn't have the shortest swing in the world but he has incredibly quick hands - he can't be consistently busted inside - and he will happily take the ball with power to left-center. His walk totals belie his plate command and the respect he has earned among his pitching peers. And that dramatic jump in his walk rate last year over 2005, while jumping a level, indicates he got a little antsy while slumping in Sarasota and expanded his zone.

 

Joey has some defensive development to accomplish but he showed some improvement in spring training. He is considered a hard working player and he can turn that work into results. Last year he decided he wanted to steal bases and he swiped 24 despite not being blessed with above average speed. Stolen Bases will not be a major part of his big league game but he may provide more than the average first basemen.

 

His strong work ethic is a gift because he has some things to accomplish before he's ready for the MLB portion of his career. One area of concern is his struggles against LHP. Last year he hit .262 vs/ LHP, 89 points lower than vs. RHP with a luke warm OPS of .756, 312 points lower than vs. RHP.

 

The Reds rightly feel he needs to do some more growing and returned him to the minors to start the year. He'll be back at some point this season and he will eventually lay claim to first base in Cincinnati, perhaps in 2008, and a spot in the middle of the batting order. He's worth having in keeper leagues especially if your league has a minor league component.

 

Long Term Fantasy Grade - A

 

Year Team AB AVG XBH HR RBI BB SO SB OBP SLG

2004 A-Potomac 84 .298 7 5 20 11 21 1 .385 .560

2004 A-Dayton 391 .302 28 14 72 79 110 9 .419 .486

2005 A-Sarasota 464 .256 25 17 83 52 122 4 .330 .425

2006 AA-Chatt 508 .319 48 22 77 78 109 24 .408 .547

 

 

Elijah Dukes - Tampa Bay

Outfield - Bats Right - 6/26/84

 

Tampa's Excitable Boy had a roller coaster season in AAA last season which featured battles with everyone he could find to battle with including teammates and management in Durham. He finished last season sitting out a 30-game suspension keeping his 2006 ABs down and hindering his development. The Rays fixed that by sending him to the AFL last fall.

 

Imagine a supremely gifted 6-2, 240lb linebacker with raw but developing baseball skills and you have a good picture of what we are dealing with here. Add a significant amount of innate contact skills and zone command you can see why the Rays are so excited. The cherry on top here is above-average speed that will lead allow him to scare double figure SBs at the MLB level.

 

He fanned 83 times in 446 ABs in AA in 2005 but paired that up with 45 walks, a number he almost matched in just 283 ABs in AAA last year while striking out just 47 times. That is very strong plate command for a 22-year-old at AAA who can't control his temper. It speaks to a very tall ceiling for this kid.

 

His power hasn't shown up in his stat line yet, but it will. It's really more a matter of whether Elijah can wait for it. He tends to press for the big at the plate when any hit will do. Other than his own impatience and his personal demons there's really nothing, either physical or from a skills standpoint to hinder Dukes.

 

Elijah already has a couple of dingers with the Rays this season, and drawn a couple of walks, and he seems anything but over matched so far. It's easy to picture him middle of the Rays order eventually hitting 30 homers and stealing 10-15 bases, but the hard thing to picture is where he'll be playing. The Rays are stacked in the OF and so they had Dukes working at first base in the AFL. He is also a good DH candidate. If his development continues and he can handle his frustration and outbursts, the Rays will find room.

 

Long Term Fantasy Grade - A

 

Year Team AB AVG XBH HR RBI BB SO SB OBP SLG

2004 A-Chston-Sc 163 .288 14 2 15 18 47 14 .368 .423

2004 A-Bakersf 211 .332 18 8 34 26 50 16 .416 .540

2005 AA-Montgom 446 .287 26 18 73 45 83 19 .355 .478

2006 AAA-Durham 283 .293 20 10 50 44 47 9 .401 .488

 

 

 

Matt Garza - Minnesota

Starting Pitcher - Throws Right - 11/26/83

 

It took two drafts before Matt decided to sign a contract that brought him $1.35M as the 25th overall pick in 2005. He pitched well enough in his first pro tour but last season he rifled through the Twins system winning 17 games over 4 levels including 3 wins in the Majors.

 

There were all kinds of good signs across his stat line last year in the minors starting with sub-1.00 WHIPs, sub-.200 OBAs, K rates of nearly 9 per 9 and above, K/BB ratios of nearly 5:1 ... It's as if our own Anthony Perri built a pitching prospect in his garage workshop.

 

Unfortunately none of that translated in the majors last year where opponents hit .301 off of him and he went 3-6, 5.76, 1.46 in 10 appearances and 9 starts. The thing is that he threw 186 IP last year when you count his 50 in the majors and it is very likely he wore down at the end. Matt weighs 185 but that's hung on a 6-4 frame so he comes off as lanky.

 

Matt spent last year tweaking his mechanics and fleshing out what is now a four-pitch arsenal. His curve and slider are better than average and his change is developing. He uses the change to keep left-handers off his fastball and he has been effective. Nevertheless, his fastball is his bread and butter. He cruises in the mid-90s and can pull out the occasional high-90s pitch when needed.

 

Despite his rough tour with the Twins last summer, it was somewhat of an upset that Matt didn't start the season with the big club. The Twins want him to screw down his offspeed stuff in Rochester. At some point this year, barring an injury on the big league level, he'll probably be recalled to pitch out of the Twins bullpen as is custom in Minnesota and work his way towards the rotation.

 

Once he strengthen his command of his offspeed stuff and learns to trust his pure stuff Matt will be something special. If Santana stays long enough for Garza to mature Matt has the potential to eventually be the best #2 starter in baseball. Depending on how Francisco Liriano rehabs we may eventually see Matt as the best #3 in a couple of decades. Hang on to Matt with both hands in keeper leagues.

 

Long Term Fantasy Value - A+

 

Year Team W L ERA WHIP INN H BB SO

2005 A-Beloit 3 3 3.54 1.05 56 53 15 64

2005 R-Elizabethtn 1 1 3.66 1.04 19.2 14 6 25

2006 AA-New Britain 6 2 2.51 0.81 57.1 40 14 68

2006 A-Fort Myers 5 1 1.42 0.75 44.1 27 11 53

2006 AAA-Rochester 3 1 1.85 0.76 34 20 7 33

 

 

This is just a sample of Prospect Central. There are more prospect breakdowns and over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here link:www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today link:www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3