Prospect Central Week #3 - April 15, 2007

Welcome to Prospect Central for Week #3. Today we will look at some players doing it … or not doing it … or sort of doing it, on the MLB level. Today it is a mixed bag of top prospects, and/or guys who you have heard a lot about, and/or guys you have been hearing about for a while, and/or guys you may not have known existed last week.  Oh and we even wish a Prospect Central Happy Birthday to a prospect today!

Travis Buck - Oakland

Outfielder - Bats Left - 11/18/1983

This Arizona State product was a 1st round Supplemental Pick in the 2005 draft, the 36th pick overall, and he was raking last summer at Hi-A Stockton and AA Midland before falling to what was eventually diagnosed as a sports hernia.  

Prior to his original injury last July, which ended his minor league season, Travis was hitting .302 at Midland with 27 XBH in 212 AA ABs. That is an incredible XBH rate but the problem was that only 4 of those XBH were homeruns. He had 23 XBH in Hi-A in 126 ABs last year before moving up to Midland, while hitting .329. Again, that is an incredible rate as well, but only 3 of those XBH were homeruns.

Once you add in his 57 Ks and 48 BBs over those 338 2006 ML ABs, you can clearly see a contact machine with great plate command. That command comes from his incredibly quick hands that allow Travis take an extra look without fearing fastballs. Travis will hit the ball where it is pitched and doesn’t fear pitcher’s counts. He is confident with those great hands, and the strike zone, and in that regard he may very well be ready for the opportunity with the big club that Dan Johnson’s injury has afford him.  

The problem is that his arm will not allow him to play RF and he doesn’t have the speed for CF. That leaves him as a left fielder and so far the corner-outfielder power that scouts project for him is late to the party.  Travis has hit just 29 homers total in three college seasons and 497 pro ABs. To this point, at the major league level, he has not lifted the ball at all and it’s not unreasonable to wonder when he’s going to start turning some of those doubles into homers.

The 23-year-old was projected to make the majors some time this summer so even if he is here because Johnson is hurt he could very well stick. Travis is a prototypical Billy Beane player but from a fantasy standpoint he will need to develop that latent HR stroke so that he can settle into an Rbi position in the batting order and be productive across a couple of scoring columns. If those homers don’t come he’ll end up being a luke-warm fantasy property. 

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B-   
 

Year Level AB   OBP   SLG   AVG  HR RBI XBH SB BB SO

2005 A    123  .427  .472  .341   1  22  14  3 19 19

2005 A     36  .439  .556  .361   2   9   3  1  5  8

2006 AA   212  .376  .472  .302   4  22  27  9 22 39

2006 A    126  .400  .603  .349   3  26  23  2 14 18

John Danks - Chicago White Sox

Starting Pitcher – Throws Left – 4/15/1985

John Danks celebrates his birthday today as a member of the Chicago White Sox rotation, at least for now. The now 22-year-old LHP is one of those prospects that will mess you up if you only dig as far as his season totals.

Take last year for example. He finished making 13 starts in 14 appearances for AAA Oklahoma posting a 4-5 record with a 4.33 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. So-so, right? 

That followed 13 equally so-so starts at AA Frisco where he went 5-4, 4.15, 1.38.  That won’t leave you terribly excited. But in AA he was hit around in April to the tune of .397 (OBA) allowing a .738 OSLG% and 1.185 OOPS. He gave up a .2.23 WHIP that month and 2.6 HR/9 in 27.1 IP  

Then came May (21.2) and the results were considerably better … .190/.380/.636, a 1.02 WHIP, and 1.66 HR/9. As is customary, June followed that and John got even better in 24.2 IP. He held opponents to .231/.341/611 with a 1.05 WHIP and just 0.36 HR/9. 

Overall he whiffed 10.8/9 while walking 2.8/9. So you see his total AA line simply didn’t tell the whole story.

As similar pattern emerged in AAA where after a .283/.609/.962 July, allowing a 1.54 WHIP and 2.78 HR/9, John settled down in August. His opponents hit .222/.389/.584 with a 1.24 WHIP and 0.33 HR/9. 

His command suffered at 4.3 BB/9 overall, and even 3.9 in August, but he maintained a strong 9.2/9 K rate overall. 

John throws a fastball (91-94), change and curve with relatively equal skill although his strong curve may still be his best pitch. He’s been working on adding a 2-seam fastball to mix things up a bit more. John’s pitches are fully installed and fairly good. At 22, with a 6-1, 200 frame you can reasonably expect him to add another foot or two to his fast ball and that would probably make a big difference in his ceiling.

Command is also a variable on two levels. First, if he could get closer to 3 BB/9 at the major league level that would be a help as well. That may come with maturity. He is not that far off. 

Second, he tends to get up in the zone and his fastball is not good enough to live there. He needs to stay down and that would even help him throw some much-needed groundballs. 

John is a tenant-at-will in the White Sox rotation, and his hold on that job is less than totally stable.But the White Sox would do well to keep in mind that he tends to rebound nicely after struggling with level jumps. If they show some patience with the kid he will probably reward them.

Danks will need to control the walks and homers to be viable, but he can be much better than that with just a reasonable bump in velocity and command. His ceiling is probably that of a #2, but the question is whether he’ll be a good #2 or not.
 

Long Term Fantasy Grade B-
 

Year Level W   L   ERA  WHIP   G   INN    H  BB/9   K/9  HR/9

2004 A     1   4  5.24  1.60  13  55     62   4.3   7.9   0.8

2004 A     3   2  2.17  1.06  14  49.2   38   2.6  11.7   0.7

2005 AA    4  10  5.49  1.54  18  98.1  117   3.1   7.8   1.1

2005 A     3   3  2.50  1.15  10  57.2   50   2.5   8.3   0.8

2006 AA    5   4  4.15  1.39  13  69.1   74   2.9  10.7   1.4

2006 AAA   4   5  4.33  1.44  14  70.2   67   4.4   9.2   1.4

 

Taylor Tankersley – Florida

Relief Pitcher – Throws Left – 3/7/1983
 

Much like Craig Hansen in Boston, Taylor was considered the closer of the future for the Marlins almost as soon as he was drafted out of Alabama in the first round of the 2004 draft. The 6-1, 220 lefty is less than overpowering which along with his southpaw delivery puts him two strikes down right out of the gate. 

What Tankersley does do well is mix up his fastball and slow slider/curve hybrid to keep hitters off balance. He also uses a decent change to keep RHH off the scent. His fastball lacks consistency as well due to a delivery that seems (based on results) to hard to repeat. He tops out at 92 with the fastball but he comes up sub-90 quite often. It may be that very lack of consistency however that allowed him to hold opponents to a .125 OBA in AA Carolina last summer in 28 IP and .228 in 41 MLB IP with the Marlins last year.

He seemingly does not have the stuff to support his 12.7/9 K rate in the minors last year or his 10.1/9 K rate with the Marlins but you can’t argue with the numbers. That’s a closer-level K rate to go along with his closer-level OBA. 

Last year with the Marlins however, he walked 26 in 41 IP, a 5.4/9 BB rate. Along with the 33 hits allowed, we are talking about a 1.44 WHIP. That won’t fly.  He was better at AA walking 14 (4.4/9) but that BB rate is way too high as well. It’s obviously not a matter of jitters, Taylor has some significant command issue that need to be handled.  

Those issues will keep him from serious consideration as the primary closer for at least a bit. But it was shoulder issues that compelled the Marlins to covert him to a reliever in the first place, and he started out the year on the DL with a barking shoulder. That is something to watch. 

Another thing to watch is Jorge Julio and Henry Owens. If they cannot handle the closing duties, that may force the Marlins to go to Taylor before he’s had a chance to hone his command. He is the best reliever the Marlins have right now from a talent standpoint which makes him a closer candidate by default. I’m not convinced that’s his true destiny, but I’m just as convinced that may not matter to the Marlins.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B-

Year Level W  L   ERA  WHIP   G    INN    H  BB/9  K/9  HR/9

2004 A     1  1  3.38  1.11   6   26.2   21   2.7 11.0   0.7

2005 A     2  7  5.18  1.50  12   66     74   3.4  8.6   1.6

2005 A     1  0  3.38  1.25   4   24     21   3.4  7.1   0.4

2006 AA    4  1  0.95  0.89  22   28.1   11   4.5 12.8   0.0

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