Tim Hudson
Many pundits called for a bounce back year from Tim Hudson and so far the early results look good for Hudson and his owners. After allowing only 1 earned run in 7 more innings of work on Sunday, Hudson improved to 2-0 on the season with a 0.86 ERA. Two key indicators to look at when evaluating Hudson are HR's allowed and BB's allowed. Since Hudson's strong 2004 season, he's seen both rates rise considerably with the HR Rate absolutely skyrocketing. His stuff has still remained solid as his K rate has remained steady. So far this season in 21 innings, Hudson's 9 walks continue to warrant concern but the early returns on limiting the HR ball are quite good as he's only allowed 1 HR in 21 innings. If Hudson merely cuts down the HR's this season and continues to struggle with his control he'll still likely decrease his ERA from the mid 4's, to the high 3's. If he can get back to limiting his HR's allowed below 15, as he did in his stint with the A's, Hudson could begin to look closer to the Ace we remember back with the A's.
Chipper Jones
I thought Chipper was a bit undervalued heading into the season because of his injury concerns over the past few seasons. What's been lost with Chipper is when he has played, he's been spectacular. Despite missing on average 50 games in each of the last two seasons, Jones has averaged just under 25 HR's and 80 RBI's. If in those other 50 games you can simply find 5-8 HR's and 20 RBI's from a replacement 3B, you're looking at phenomenal numbers out of your 3B position. Jones' batting average last season was a bit inflated by a high BHIP% and while his EYE has deteriorated a bit, his Slugging % and HR Rate have been higher than ever. If Chipper does find a way to stay healthy for closer to the full season his numbers should be elite and the early season start of .293-.420-.537 with 3 HR's is an indication that Chipper still has plenty left in the tank.
Braden Looper
Three outings make Three Quality Starts for Braden Looper. Even more impressive for Looper's early season start is the offenses he's faced in 2 of his first 3 outings: the Mets and the Brewers. Looper's best quality so far has been his ability to limit the HR ball, only allowing 1 in his first 19 innings. So far Looper's posted a mediocre K rate and has had some good fortune getting out of jams. While I have a hard time doubting Dave Duncan's ability, the peripherals suggest Looper's going to have a hard time continuing his current level of success without a greatly improved K or BB Rate. His peripherals suggest he'll be closer to league average than breakout candidate.
Chris Duncan
Chris Duncan is at it again. After a 4-5 performance on Sunday with his 3rd HR of the season, Duncan is now hitting .412-.487-.794 early on in 2007. This coming off a remarkable 2nd half call-up that saw Duncan club 22 HR's in just 280 AB's. I've been selling Duncan short for some time now and I'm starting to buy into the idea that maybe he's just a late bloomer. But I still have my doubts, in Duncan's minor league career that saw every bit of 6 full seasons he was only a .300 hitter one time and his minor league EYE of .45 leaves something to be desired. While Duncan did show flashes of power in the minor leagues, his minor league Slugging % above A ball topped out in the mid .460's. While Duncan's done everything to prove his history wrong in his stay in the major leagues and certainly done enough to warrant serious consideration, I still struggle to shake his minor league track record from my memory and write him off as simply a late-bloomer. Maybe I'm wrong on this one but count me in the corner of Chris Duncan's skeptics.
Kyle Lohse
After writing a blog entry last week that described Kyle Lohse's stuff as fringy at best, it's only fitting I'm the guy that has to write about Lohse's 8 shutout innings with 12 K's against the Cubs on Sunday. Not only do I have to write this but I had to watch it happen against my beloved half-witted Cubs. Home Plate Umpire Doug Eddings must have had a plane to catch because the strike zone on Sunday was massive and both pitchers took advantage totaling 22 Strikeouts from Ted Lilly and Kyle Lohse. To Lohse's credit his stuff was better yesterday as he worked in the low 90's with phenomenal command. Lohse kept working the outside corners and work diligently at extending the umpire's strike zone by nibbling further and further out as the game progressed. Unfortunately the Cubs batters couldn't figure out that Lohse was strictly pitching away and few batters tried to cheat early in the count and take a fastball to the opposite field. I digress, you're not here to listen to me rant about the Cubs, you're here for analysis. Currently, Lohse is throwing an incredible 68% of his pitches for strikes. If he continues to pound the strike zone at that clip he won't be issuing walks and while his strikeout rate is currently inflated by today's masterful performance Lohse has a solid chance at earning some time in fantasy lineups. His strikeout rate in the 2nd half of last season while playing in a Reds uniform suggests he could be a low 4's ERA pitcher with 160-170 K's this season.
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