There
is a power shift in Washington this
morning as Jon Rauch takes over
the closers role
in place of Chad Cordero who has
been placed on the bereavement list.
Rauch’s
indicators hardly spell c-l-o-s-e-r. This year in 17
IP his K-rate stands at 5.1/9. That’s a little low based on
his career rate of
7.22 but the fact is that he’s only posted a K-rate of 6.1 or
better twice in
4+ seasons. This
year he has walked just one hitter for a nice 0.5/9
rate but his career rate is 3.30 which is a little generous in the 9th.
He’s also a fly ball pitcher with a career 0.7 GB/FB ratio.
One
indicator that is consistently positive for Jon is OBA
where he sits at .224 this year and .235 career. I’m
not filled with confidence and neither should you be.
But the thing is that there will be save opps for the next few days and
Rauch
will be getting the chance to convert them. This
will be an audition of sorts for Jon as well. Chances
are that teams will be looking for Cordero at the trade deadline this
season
and Rauch will be the next in line for primary closing duties.
In
this instance however, Cordero is expected to be away
from the team for 3-7 days. We will keep you updated on his ETR
Saul
Rivera would
constitute Plan C. Entering last night he had fanned 11 in 13.1 IP
against 3
walks and 11 hits (1.05). He throws groundballs (1.2 GB ratio) as well,
but
lacks the experience to make a manger comfortable.
Meanwhile
in Florida,
Jorge
Julio
is back and the Marlins seem
committed to returning him to the closer’s role. He pitched
two scoreless
innings in his return on Monday and the Marlins have too much invested
in Julio
to give up on their original bullpen blueprint at this point, despite a
strong
showing by Henry Owens in his
absence. If
history is any indication however it might be prudent to
hang on to Henry for a while. Julio has a tendency to self-destruct. In
Philly, Tom
Gordon’s MRI on his
inflamed right rotator cuff came back negative and he
will resume a throwing program, possibly as early as today. He is
eligible to
return in a little over a week but it is unclear at this point if he
will be
ready.
Brett
Myers
was
2- for -2 in save opps prior to last night and has the skill set to
hold the
job but one has to feel that the Phillies will return him to the
rotation at
some point. Chances are that Gordon will resume the closers role when
healthy
and re-acclimated.
In Toronto,
Jason
Frasor is working
very hard at
pitching himself out of the closer’s role that he is keeping
warm for B.J.
Ryan. He has given up 11 runs in his last 4 outings, covering just 3 IP
on 7
hits, 7 walks (4.66 WHIP). In that stretch he has fanned just one.
Given
the Jays’ admitted predilection for lying about injuries,
it would be natural to wonder about Frasor’s health status.
Manager John
Gibbons is non-committal about who will get the ball in the next
crucial 9th
inning (if there is one the way the Jays are going). If Frasor
isn’t his
choice, Gibbons could go with either righty Jamie Accardo or lefty Scott Downs.
Accardo
had fanned 13 in 14.2 IP with 5 walks with an OBA of
.145. That low OBA is the result of an abnormally low .198 BAHIP. That
number will
correct as we move forward so don’t lean too heavily on that indicator.
Downs had 13 Ks
in 9.1 IP
without allowing a run entering last night but the Red Sox got to him
with
homers by Julio Lugo and Manny Ramirez. He gave up 3 runs in 3 outs of
work.
Downs is a very
serviceable
reliever but you do not want him to be in the position of using him in
ninth
inning situations if you are the Jays. Accardo
may be worth a claim if you are absolutely needy for
saves but understand that would be a truly speculative move.
Eric
Gagne
was
activated by the Rangers on Wednesday and he is expected to immediately
reclaim
the closers role from Akinori
Otsuka.
Once again, however, history will tell you that it will probably pay to
hang on
to Otsuka. Eric’s latest injury was a hip injury, obviously
not arm related,
but there are still plenty of questions to be answered about his
overall
durability. And lest we forget, only one of his 10 outs this season
have come
via the strikeout.
Finally
today, a couple of quick hitters …
As
we anticipated, it appears that Rafael
Soriano has
emerged as the primary closer in Atlanta, filling
in for Bob Wickman. He nailed
down his 4th
save of the year last night with an uneventful 9th inning.
Lefty Mike
Gonzalez set him up
for the save
with a solid 8th and that
will likely be the deployment
configuration for the Braves bullpen in most cases. Brad
Lidge
is
starting to work his way towards the end of the bullpen again, getting
4 strong
outs last night in setting up Dan
Wheeler who is 8-
for -8 in save opps. The best case scenario for the
Astros at this point is to get Lidge a little hot and keep him that way
until
teams start looking for relievers in June and July. They will want
Lidge to
present the most attractive trade target possible when contenders come
looking
for bullpen help.
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