NL Weekly Strategy

Michael Leone

 

Good morning everyone!!  Welcome to Insiderbaseball.com's Coaches Meeting for Week #2...and the opening day for Fantistics Regular Season reporting!

American League

In the Field

It appears as if Brian Roberts is determined to repeat last year’s 50 steals (he attempted three last night).  Fantistics has high hopes for Luke Scott so it’s disappointing to see him not start every day.  Look for the Orioles to continue to sit Scott when the opposition rolls out a lefty.  Bad news for Jacoby Ellsbury owners as he has received 11 AB during week 1 versus Coco Crisp’s 17.  J.D. Drew has started the past three games after missing the Red Sox initial 3 games of the season.  Carlos Quentin is off to a nice start, and White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen is quoted as saying, “If he keeps playing like that, he’ll be in the lineup, and we’ll figure the rest out,”.  Meanwhile, Guillen also stated that even though OF Jerry Owens is eligible to come off the DL on Tuesday, he will not be back with the team unless he is 100%.  Watch this situation closely because Owens is a candidate to finish the year in the top 10 in steals.  Also, this could affect a number of the White Sox 1st week regulars depending on how Guillen decides to rearrange the lineup card upon Owens’ return.  Victor Martinez’s injury does not appear to be anything serious (he was able to pinch-hit on Thursday), but the Indians are being extremely careful bringing him back.  Still, he should return to the starting lineup early next week.  Kelly Shoppach will continue to start until that happens.  Gary Sheffield tore a tendon in his finger.  Sheffield hopes to avoid the DL, but it does not look like he will return real soon.  So, if you set a weekly lineup, it would be prudent of you to leave him off of it.  On the other hand, this allows Miguel Cabrera to DH while recovering from a sore quad.  This situation also allows rookie Clete Thomas to start for the time being.  CF David Dejesus successfully tested his sprained ankle, and he should assume his normal starting role during the upcoming week.  If for some reason Dejesus is unable to return, Joey Gathright, an excellent source of speed, will continue to get the start in center.  Alex Gordon looks to rebound from a dreadful rookie campaign as he homered twice during the season’s first week.  Miguel Olivo returns from suspension; Matt Tupman was sent down to make room.  Popular sleeper pick Howie Kendrick is off to a very hot start (.435).  For now Jason Kubel owners do not have to worry about their manager’s odd distribution of at bats because he will start full time as the result of Michal Cuddyer landing on the disabled list with a dislocated finger.  Jorge Posada went 2-4 with 2 RBIs last night after missing a few games with a sore shoulder.  Travis Buck was benched versus lefty C.C. Sabathia yesterday.  He is ice cold to start off the season with 9 hits and no strikeouts in 18 at bats.  Eric Chavez will be out another month.  Dioner Navarro was placed on the 15-day DL, and Ben Zobrist will not see action this week.  Shawn Riggans will start at catcher for the Rays.  David Murphy’s hot start has definitely merited him a spot on all AL-only fantasy rosters.

On the Mound

Bartolo Colon looked good in a minor league rehab assignment, but the plan is still for him to make at least two more starts to build up his endurance before he joins the Red Sox.  Josh Beckett said his hip was just as much responsible for his DL trip as was his back, but he is still scheduled to start today in Toronto.  Dontrelle Willis’s struggles continued into the regular season; he walked a whopping 7 batters yesterday.  Royals ace Gil Meche has struggled, but the rest of the staff, especially the highly intelligent Brian Bannister, has looked sharp.  Jered Weaver is doing his best impression as a staff ace in the absence of John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar who are not close to returning anytime soon.   Following a so-so minor league outing, Francisco Liriano will make another minor league start on Tuesday, this time at Triple-A.  His status will be reevaluated after that outing, but it is highly unlikely that he will make a big league start next week.  Kevin Slowey is hurt and will at the very least miss his next start (likely to wind up on the DL).  Twin’s manager Ron Gardenhire said he did not have any immediate ideas on how to fill that void, but he did suggest moving Brian Bass out of the bullpen.  Note that the Twins did sign former Giant Jerome WilliamsAndy Pettitte who began the season on the DL (back) had a rough outing versus the Rays yesterday.  Dana Eveland took the hill as the A’s 5th starter yesterday, and he was great, picking up the win against a talented Cleveland offense.  However, I do not know what his status will be once Chad Gaudin returns to the rotation.  Gaudin will start next Saturday barring any setbacks in another rehab assignment that will take place Monday night.  Scott Kazmir was eligible to come off the DL yesterday, but the Rays want him to build up more endurance before he rejoins the club.  It is unclear exactly when that will happen (some time at the end of the month), but the Rays are wise not to rush the talented but injury-prone Kazmir.

In the Bullpen

Orioles’ closer George Sherrill saved three games this week.  Even though he is unlikely to keep that pace up, Sherrill is a solid reliever (2.36 ERA), and this is further evidence of why it does not make sense to draft closers early as saves are fairly difficult to predict.  Tiger’s reliever Fernando Rodney was thought to be making progress but had a disappointing bullpen session Friday; it will still be quite some time before he rejoins the Tiger bullpen.  One of the Angels top setup men, Scot Shields, is eligible to come off the DL list today, and all signs point towards that happening.  Francisco Rodriguez has changed his delivery as a result of a sore ankle, and early returns have been a success (3 saves in 3 chances, 0 ER).  Not a good start to the season for Huston Street who has given up 5 ER in under 4 IP.  Brandon Morrow could be called up when eligible on Friday after an encouraging minor league outing in which his fastball was clocked at 96mph.  J.J. Putz has wound up on the DL, but the early prognosis is that his injury is nothing serious.  Mark Lowe appears to be in line for all save opportunities for the time being so don’t be fooled by the fact that starter Miguel Batista registered a save.  The Rangers expect Luis Mendoza to join their rotation on April 12thB.J. Ryan will be back with the Blue Jays in a week or so, but is unclear how he will be used immediately upon his return.  Ryan will definitely regain the closer’s role at some point, but until then it’s Jeremy Accardo’s job (he’s been fantastic).

Here are the most favorable American League offensive schedules this week...

Tampa Bay Devil Rays TB Mussina,M. 7 Bedard,E. (L) 3 Washburn,J. (L) 7 Batista,M. 9 Guthrie,J. 7 Cabrera,D. 8 Burres,B. (L) 9 50
Seattle Mariners SEA
Cabrera,D. 8 Garza,M. 6 Sonnanstine,A. 6 Jackson,E. 9 Weaver,Jr. 5 Garland,J. 5 Saunders,J. (L) 8 47
Baltimore Orioles BAL
Silva,C. 7 Jennings,J. 7 Gabbard,K. (L) 7 Millwood,K. 7 Shields,J. 3 Hammel,J. 8 Garza,M. 6 45

And the unfavorable A.L. Weekly schedules...

Los Angeles Angels LAA Carmona,F. 4 Westbrook,J. 6 Byrd,P. 8 OFF 0 Hernandez,F. 5 Silva,C. 7 Bedard,E. (L) 3 33
Detroit Tigers DET
OFF 0 Matsuzaka,D. 5 Lester,J. (L) 7 Wakefield,T. 5 Floyd,G. 7 Buehrle,M. (L) 4 Vazquez,J. 4 32
Oakland Athletics OAK
OFF 0 Burnett,A. 5 McGowan,D. 5 Marcum,S. 5 Sabathia,C. (L) 4 Carmona,F. 4 Westbrook,J. 6 29
 

2X Starters this Week (based on the strength of opponent)…

Favorable

Blackburn,N. MIN CHW@ 10 KC@ 10 20
Burres,B. BAL
TEX@ 9 TB@ 7 16
Jennings,J. TEX
BAL 7 TOR 9 16
Harden,R. OAK
TOR@ 9 CLE@ 6 15
Burnett,A. TOR
OAK 6 TEX@ 9 15
Garza,M. TB
SEA 7 BAL 7 14
Cabrera,D. BAL
SEA 7 TB@ 7 14
Vazquez,J. CHW
MIN 8 DET 5 13
Saunders,J. LAA
CLE 6 SEA@ 7 13

Neutral

Rogers,K. DET BOS@ 2 CHW@ 10 12
Hughes,P. NYY
KC@ 10 BOS@ 2 12
Bedard,E. SEA
TB@ 7 LAA 5 12
Silva,C. SEA
BAL@ 7 LAA 5 12
Westbrook,J. CLE
LAA@ 5 OAK 6 11
Carmona,F. CLE
LAA@ 5 OAK 6 11

Unfavorable

Bannister,B. KC NYY 1 MIN 8 9
Mussina,M. NYY
TB 7 BOS@ 2 9
Hammel,J. TB
NYY@ 1 BAL 7 8
Matsuzaka,D.
BOS DET 5 NYY 1 6

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