Max Scherzer:
The big news on Sunday was that the Diamondbacks called up top prospect Max Scherzer. Our own David Regan ranks Scherzer as the 8th best pitching prospect in baseball and rising thanks to an incredible start to 2008 in which he’s posted a 1.17 ERA and eye-popping 38/3 K:BB Ratio in just 23 AAA innings. Lou Blasi covered Scherzer in our Prospect Central report giving Scherzer a B- because of some struggles with command last year at the AA level as well as some concerns over Scherzer’s delivery and his secondary stuff. As Lou noted these are legitimate concerns which scouts have echoed as well and as a result many scouts have suggested Scherzer’s ultimate role would have to end up in the pen where his max-effort delivery and dominating fastball can play up a bit. Regardless of some of the long-term concerns, Scherzer demands an immediate look for fantasy owners. All of the same concerns uttered about Scherzer were mentioned last year with the name Tim Lincecum and I think he’s an adequate comparison for Scherzer. Like Lincecum last year, the AAA numbers are simply startling and Scherzer’s strikeout potential alone makes him a worthwhile fantasy play. Add on the fact that he’ll pitch in front of one of the better teams in baseball giving him some serious W potential IF he’s used as a starter and he makes for an immediate add. The big question right now is how the Diamondbacks intend to use Scherzer. He was called up for immediate use out of the pen after a 13 inning game on Saturday and while it looks like he’ll help out there initially the DBacks do have a potential short-term opening in the 5th slot in their rotation currently manned by Edgar Gonzalez (4.66 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). I say short-term because Doug Davis is still on the mend from the thyroid treatment he underwent a few weeks back. If Scherzer gets a chance at starting full time he becomes the most intriguing pitching prospect to hit the majors this year (until Clayton Kershaw gets a chance) and deserving of #1 waiver priority in all but the shallowest leagues. If he’s used out of the pen initially he’ll make for a dominant middle relief option with high K potential that can be used for multi-inning stints, possibly comparable to teammate Juan Cruz with the ceiling of a Carlos Marmol, Joba Chamberlain, Jonathan Broxton. My gut feeling is Scherzer’s been called up for relief help with an eye on Gonzalez’s next start in Houston. If Gonzalez struggles at all in his Tuesday start I could see Scherzer coming into the game for a few innings and then taking over his rotation spot the following week. Keep an eye on the news out of Arizona to gauge the DBacks intentions for the youngster as the extent of his fantasy value will directly be tied to his role. I’m a big believer in the value of middle relievers so either way I think Scherzer demands attention, especially for those in deeper leagues. I do think this callup is for good as the DBacks aren’t an organization that yo-yo’s their top tier talent around.
Edinson Volquez:
Volquez continued his strong start to the season improving to 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA after throwing 7 dominating innings against the hapless Giants. In the spring I noted Volquez as a guy I was keeping my eye on and actually suggested I like him tiny bit more than Johnny Cueto heading into the season. While I’ve noted since my growing affection for Cueto, I hadn’t touched on Volquez who I’m also coming along more strongly on but for different reasons. While Cueto’s elite control makes me believe, Volquez has turned the corner in a completely different direction. All of the sudden Volquez has turned into a GB pitcher with a GB Rate approaching 60%. This is a necessary improvement for Volquez if he hopes to survive pitching in the bandbox in Cincinnati as a high BB Rate and high FB rate is a dangerous way to make a living in that ballpark. If Volquez can continue to spin ground balls at this kind of rate he’ll have some significant value going forward. I do like Cueto a tad bit more going forward because I trust his control more than Volquez’s new GB tendencies, but the gap isn’t significant right now.
Chris B. Young:
At first glance TCBY (THE Chris B. Young as one of my leaguemates has dubbed him) has struggled a bit to start the season with a .224 average and just 3 steals through the first 24 games of the season. A deeper look though shows the improved BB Rate, nearing 15+%, we were waiting for from Young last year. It’s already translated in the Runs department as Young’s scored 21 times already this season, but it’s yet to translate in the SB department as Young’s only attempted 3 steals all season. This will come though with time. Last year Young attempted just 9 SB’s in the first half of the season and tried 24 SB’s in the 2nd half. The increased number of times on base should result in more SB attempts as the season wears on and should result in the type of run production you expect from a leadoff hitter (instead of the 85 runs he produced last season). Young’s never going to hit for a great average as a FB dominant hitter that strikes out a lot, but if you can swallow the average Young can be dominant in 3 Roto categories (Runs, SB’s, and HR’s).
Carlos Lee:
We haven’t talked much about Carlos Lee, but his slow start to the season which is being a bit overshadowed by the great starts of Lance Berkman and Miggy Tejada, is worth mentioning. Lee’s been one of the most consistent producers over the last 5 seasons on an annual and weekly basis, but this year he’s showing some early season red flags. Lee’s EYE is evaporating as a result of a decline in both directions. His K Rate has risen slightly in the early going and his BB Rate has dropped a bit as well. His power rates are still in line and his poor early season average has been negatively impacted from some bad luck, so the news isn’t bad all around, but Lee’s incredible consistency in the past makes me a bit cautious when I see any deviation in his peripherals. At this point it’s something to note but not worry too much about. If the EYE concerns linger for another 100 PA’s I’ll begin to show legitimate concern.
Paul Maholm:
Maholm’s name crept to the top of a sleeper list I put together in an earlier First Pitch article this year because of his strong GB tendencies in the past and I noted in the article he seemed like the type that could luck into an out of line season based on good luck with GB’s. This was my initial reaction to Maholm’s strong start (3.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) but looking a bit deeper he’s shown some nice growth early in the season with both his K and BB Rates while keeping his GB Rate above 50%. While the growth rate in the K Department would make Maholm a legitimate sleeper I’m afraid it’s not going to last. Of Maholm’s 21 K’s this year 15 of them have come against the Marlins, who as I noted last week struck out in over 25% of their plate appearances year-to-date. Outside of the Marlins, Maholm has only struck out 6 batters 19 1/3 innings. I think this is a short-term mirage for the Pirate lefty and should be taken as such until he starts striking out non-Marlins.
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