NL Daily Player Spotlight - July 31st, 2008

Michael Leone

Russell Martin – Martin went 2 – 4 last night, and his average now sits at .294, which is where it ended last season. I would not be surprised, though, to see Martin end this season with his average at the .300 mark or better, as I feel he has developed as a hitter. In particular, Martin’s plate discipline has improved to the point where it can be called outstanding. In the past two seasons, martin has an okay EYE (.79 and .75), but this season his EYE is all the way up to 1.16. It has been shown that hitters with an EYE of 1 or better often translate into .300 hitters, and I expect Martin to be one of those hitters.

Ryan Dempster – I guess it is about time I jump off the Ryan Dempster hater train. He is now 12 – 4 after holding Milwaukee to 1 run over 7 innings last night. During that span, Dempster impressively struck out 9 while walking just one batter. One of my biggest problems with Dempster has been his control (career BB/9 of 4.55), but he is at least improving in that department, down to a career best 3.58 BB/9 this season. With that said though, I still believe Dempster’s ERA is going to take a hit along with his WHIP throughout the rest of the season. His BABIP is extremely low .258, and he has a career BABIP of .307. Likewise, Dempster’s current LOB% is 4 percentage points higher than his career average.

Dan Haren – Haren is having an amazing year with a 2.56 ERA and a .960 WHIP. The switch to the NL has done him good. Haren picked up his 11th win of the season last night. He struck out 7 over 7 innings, and he has now struck out at least 7 batters in 6 straight starts, which is very impressive. Haren should be solid down the stretch one because his consistent ability to strike batters out prevents him from getting real unlucky or getting lit up on any one night.

Edinson Volquez – Volquez rebounded nicely last night after 2 straight subpar outings. He won his 13th game of the season, allowing just one run over 6.3IP. He had a solid K/BB ratio on the night of 5. Volquez has become a dominant pitcher for two main reasons: his ability to strike batters out and to get groundballs. Volquez has an extremely high K/9 rate of 9.41, but even more amazingly is his GB/FB ratio of 1.71. More than half of Volquez’s balls in play are ground balls! With these numbers and hopefully a few less walks down the road, Volquez will be one of baseball’s top pitchers for years to come (he is currently only 24 YO).

Adam Dunn – Adam Dunn is out of control. He hit two more homers last night, his 31st and 32nd of the season, to give him 12 for the month of July. Dunn is now the major league leader in HR. Now, might be a good time to sell high on Dunn because it is very unlikely that he keeps hitting HR at his current pace. Entering last night’s game, Dunn’s HR/FB% was 29%, and with two more homers, that number is sure to be higher still today. His previous career high HR/FB% came back in 2004 and was 25.7%. Dunn’s career HR/FB% is 23%. So, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dunn’s final HR/FB% dip below 26%, which would mean that his HR rate would drop off from its current pace for the rest of the season.

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