Matt Kemp:
Kemp’s putting up one of the more underrated fantasy seasons quietly making a run at a 20-30 season. Kemp knocked out his 13th HR of the season in a 3-5 effort that also yielded 3 runs and 2 RBI’s. He’s taken nicely to the move up in the order, raising his OPS over 100 points more out of the 1-2 spots in the lineup than anywhere else in the batting order and running more consistently. The impressive raw power we’ve expected out of Kemp has really come around since July and while he continues to strike out far too much and benefit from a high BHIP%, Kemp’s shown improvements in his BB Rate and has a history of sustained success with high BHIPs. He looks like he’s taken the step forward to fantasy star that many predicted, but in a quiet fashion a la Corey Hart last season. Kemp’s far from a truly elite offensive player because of the high K’s and lack of plate discipline, but he’s a legit fantasy stud because of the great power-speed combination with surprisingly strong batting average contributions despite the high K Rates. In Rotisserie formats, Kemp has been among the Top 30 hitters in all of fantasy.
Greg Maddux:
The professor was at it again on Sunday shutting down the Giants for 6 innings and picking up his 5th win of the season and 2nd in a row. Maddux allowed just 2 hits and 1 ER, while striking out 1 and walking zero. We’ve been through this before but if you can afford to pick and choose your starts with Maddux, he’s a terrific option. Maddux now has a 2.73 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 13 home starts along with a measly 3-3 record that’s been impacted by some bad luck. On the road it’s a different story, 6.02 ERA/1.57 WHIP. If you’re a Maddux owner he needs to be reserved in all road starts with the exception of outings against weak teams in big parks (think SF). If you use him just in home starts you’ll end up with a Tim Hudson type fantasy starter who is extremely helpful in the ratio categories while providing mediocre K production.
Adrian Gonzalez:
Gonzalez took another 0-4 on Sunday and remains in a prolonged slump since the beginning of July, going just 25-100 with 15 Runs and 15 RBI’s in 26 games. The steep drop-off in run production is the factor I want to pay attention to most as it’s something I suggested would likely happen months ago. Gonzalez went from driving in .81 RBI/Game heading into July to driving in just .58 RBI/game. The slump, hitting just .250, is a big reason for this, but Gonzalez was only hitting .287 before the slump so the big drop in batting average isn’t the only reason. The main reason is Gonzalez is simply unable to keep the pace he had going earlier in the season in terms of RBI/Opportunities. Hopefully you’ve taken my advice earlier in the season and sold Gonzalez when he was performing at the level of a Top 25 overall hitter, but even if you haven’t Gonzalez should get back on track soon. Despite the recent slump, Gonzalez has produced a .65 EYE during the 100 AB’s which is better than his .51 mark on the season which suggests he’s still seeing the ball well. The power and the production should come back just not at the same level as before.
Eddie Kunz:
Kunz is going to be a popular add this week since he’s been labeled the future closer in NY and had notched 27 saves at AA, but I’m going to advise some caution here. Kunz will certainly be in the mix for saves if Wagner is out for a period of time but I’m not sure he’s ready. Kunz posted a .52 BB Rate at the AA level and a 1.32 WHIP. He was striking out nearly a batter/inning which shows some dominance, but the lack of command at the minor league level gives me concern for his major league readiness out of the pen. Kunz pitched a clean inning on Sunday, being used in the 7th inning (another indication he’s not the first choice for closing), allowing just 1 hit, but he only threw 5 of his 9 pitches for strikes. Ultimately I think Kunz’s battles with command will keep him from being able to make a big impact down the stretch. He’s a speculative play and one worth rostering given the other options in New York’s pen, but the guy I’d add if I had an extra roster spot right now is Duaner Sanchez, who despite pitching through some velocity issues of late has thrown 4 consecutive scoreless appearances.
Jorge Campillo:
Campillo continues to make me look utterly foolish by tossing his 5th consecutive quality start on Sunday, shutting out the Brewers for 7 innings. Campillo’s K Rate has dropped each of the last 3 months and his BB Rate has risen each of the last 3 months. He’s rolling just a 36% GB Rate, yet allowed just 9 HR’s in 108 innings. The one thing he does do quite well is limit the walks as he’s issued just 17 in his last 95+ innings. The command is important, but the entire profile certainly isn’t of a player with a mid 2’s ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Campillo’s benefiting from quite a bit of good fortune right now both on balls in play and his Strand Rate, when those correct he’ll likely fall into the high 3’s ERA, 1.25+ WHIP that he’s more deserving of. Campillo’s upside is a mid-rotation starter in mixed formats, certainly not the ace he’s been pitching like of late.
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